Paul Henne studies the impacts of environmental change on forest ecosystems. His research aims to understand how climate change, wildfire, and management regimes interact to affect tree species distributions and carbon stocks in the forests of the Rocky Mountains.
Professional Experience
2015-present, Research Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, CO, USA
2014-2015, Oberassistent, Paleoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland
2008-2014, Postdoc, Paleoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Switzerland
2007-2008, Postdoc, Paleoecology and Vegetation Dynamics, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Education and Certifications
PhD, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2006
BS, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Michigan, 1999
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 18
Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA
Wildfires and housing development have increased since the 1990s, presenting unique challenges for wildfire management. However, it is unclear how the relative influences of housing growth and changing wildfire occurrence have altered risk to homes, or the potential for wildfire to threaten homes. We used a random forests model to predict burn probability in relation to weather variables at 1-km r
Authors
Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Amanda R. Carlson, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. Radeloff
An aridity threshold model of fire sizes and annual area burned in extensively forested ecoregions of the western USA
Wildfire occurrence varies among regions and through time due to the long-term impacts of climate on fuel structure and short-term impacts on fuel flammability. Identifying the climatic conditions that trigger extensive fire years at regional scales can enable development of area burned models that are both spatially and temporally robust, which is crucial for understanding the impacts of past and
Authors
Paul D. Henne, Todd Hawbaker
A new indicator approach to reconstruct agricultural land use in Europe from sedimentary pollen assemblages
The reconstruction of human impact is pivotal in palaeoecological studies, as humans are among the most important drivers of Holocene vegetation and ecosystem change. Nevertheless, separating the anthropogenic footprint on vegetation dynamics from the impact of climate and other environmental factors (disturbances such as fire, erosion, floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions) is a chal
Authors
Mara Deza-Araujo, César Morales-Molino, Marco Conedera, Paul D. Henne, Patrick Krebs, Martin Hinz, Caroline Heitz, Albert Hafner, Willy Tinner
Large fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?
Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributes
Authors
Wenru Xu, Hong S. He, Chao Huang, Shengwu Duan, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Yu Liang, Zhiliang Zhu
Alpine glacier reveals ecosystem impacts of Europe's prosperity and peril over the last millennium
Information about past ecosystem dynamics and human activities is stored in the ice of Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Swiss Alps. Adverse climatic intervals incurred crop failures and famines and triggered reestablishment of forest vegetation but also societal resilience through innovation. Historical documents and lake sediments record these changes at local—regional scales but often struggle to c
Authors
Sandra O. Brugger, Margit Schwikowski, Erika Gobet, Christoph Schworer, Christian Rohr, Michael Sigl, Stephan Henne, Christian Pfister, Theo M. Jenk, Paul D. Henne, Willy Tinner
8,000 years of climate, vegetation, fire and land-use dynamics in the thermo-mediterranean vegetation belt of northern Sardinia (Italy)
Knowledge about the vegetation history of Sardinia, the second largest island of the Mediterranean, is scanty. Here, we present a new sedimentary record covering the past ~ 8,000 years from Lago di Baratz, north-west Sardinia. Vegetation and fire history are reconstructed by pollen, spores, macrofossils and charcoal analyses and environmental dynamics by high-resolution element geochemistry togeth
Authors
Tiziana Pedrotta, Erika Gobet, Christoph Schwörer, Giorgia Beffa, Christoph Butz, Paul D. Henne, César Morales-Molino, Salvatore Pasta, Jacqueline Van Leeuwen, Hendrik Vogel, Elias Zwimpfer, Flavio Anselmetti, Martin Grosjean, Willy Tinner
The changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China
Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often sim
Authors
Chao Huang, Hong S. He, Yu Liang, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Wenru Xu, Peng Gong, Zhiliang Zhu
Increased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains
1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can increase carbon uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance carbon release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires.2. To understand the consequences of climate change for
Authors
Paul D. Henne, Todd Hawbaker, Robert M. Scheller, Feng S Zhao, Hong S He, Wenru Xu, Zhiliang Zhu
Spatially explicit reconstruction of post-megafire forest recovery through landscape modeling
Megafires are large wildfires that occur under extreme weather conditions and produce mixed burn severities across diverse environmental gradients. Assessing megafire effects requires data covering large spatiotemporal extents, which are difficult to collect from field inventories. Remote sensing provides an alternative but is limited in revealing post-fire recovery trajectories and the underlying
Authors
Wenru Xu, Hong He, Jacob S. Fraser, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Shengwu Duan, Zhiliang Zhu
A critical assessment of human-impact indices based on anthropogenic pollen indicators
Anthropogenic pollen indicators in pollen records are an established tool for reconstructing the history of human impacts on vegetation and landscapes. They are also used to disentangle the influence of human activities and climatic variability on ecosystems. The comprehensive anthropogenic pollen-indicator approach developed by Behre (1981) has been widely used, including beyond its original geog
Authors
Mara Deza-Araujo, César Morales-Molino, Willy Tinner, Paul D. Henne, Caroline Heitz, Gianni B Pezzatti, Albert Hafner, Marco Conedera
Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China
Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition can
Authors
Yuanyuan Fu, Hong S He, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Zhiliang Zhu, David R. Larsen
A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes
Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processe
Authors
Robert M Scheller, Alec Kretchun, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne
Non-USGS Publications**
Beffa G, Pedrotta T, Colombaroli D, Henne PD, van Leeuwen JFN, Süsstrunk P, Kaltenrieder P, Adolf C, Vogel H, Pasta S, Anselmetti FS, Gobet E, and Tinner W. 2016. Vegetation and fire history of coastal north-eastern Sardinia (Italy) under changing Holocene climates and land use. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. 25(3), 271-289. doi: 10.1007/s00334-015-0548-5.
Ruosch M, Spahni R, Joos F, Henne PD, van der Knaap WO, and Tinner W. 2016. Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe – comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations. Global Change Biology. 22(2), 727-740. doi:10.1111/gcb.13075.
Tinner W, Conedera M, Bugmann H, Colombaroli D, Gobet E, Vescovi E, Heiri O, Luterbacher J, La Mantia T, Pasta S, and Henne PD. Europäische Wälder unter wärmeren Klimabedingungen: neue Erkenntnisse aus Paläoökologie und dynamischer Vegetationsmodellierung. 2016: AFZ – DerWald: 45-49.
Tinner W, Conedera M, Bugmann G, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, Heiri O, Joos F, Luterbacher J, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Pedrotta T, Manetti MC, and Henne PD. 2016. Quali formazioni boschive in un clima più caldo? Sherwood - Foreste ed Alberi Oggi: 221, 37-42.
Henne PD, Elkin C, Franke J, Colombaroli D, Calò C, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Conedera M, Dermody O, and Tinner W. Reviving extinct Mediterranean forests increases ecosystem potential in a warmer future. 2015. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 13(7), 356-362, doi:10.1890/150027
Gavin DG, Fitzpatrick MC, Gugger PF, Heath KD, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Dobrowski SZ, Hampe A, Hu FS, Ashcroft MB, Bartlein PJ, Blois JL, Carstens BC, Davis EB, de Lafontaine G, Edwards ME, Fernandez M, Henne PD, Herring EM, Holden ZA, Kong W, Liu J, Magri D, Matzke NJ, McGlone MS, Saltré F, Stigall AL, Tsai YE, and Williams JW. 2014. Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. New Phytologist, 204 (1), 37-54.
Schwörer C, Henne PD, and Tinner W. 2014. A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics. Global Change Biology, 20, 1512-1526.
Bugmann H, Brang P, Elkin C, Henne PD, Jakoby O, Lévesque M, Lischke H, Psomas A, Rigling A, Wermelinger B, and Zimmermann NE. 2014. Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services, In: CH-2014 Impacts, Toward quantitative scenarios of climate change impacts in Switzerland. Published by OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope, and ProClim, Bern, Switzerland, pp. 79-89.
Tinner W, Colombaroli D, Heiri O, Henne PD, Steinacher M, Untenecker J, Vescovi E, Allen JRM, Carrara G, Conedera M, Joos F, Lotter AF, Luterbacher J, Samartin S, and Valsecchi V. 2013. The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming. Ecological Monographs, 83(4), 419-439.
Calò C, Henne PD, Eugster P, van Leeuwen JFN, Gilli A, Hamann Y, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Vescovi E, and Tinner W. 2013. 1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy. The Holocene, 23 (10), 1477-1486.
Henne PD, Elkin C, Colombaroli D, Samartin S, Bugmann H, Heiri O, and Tinner W. 2013. Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: Insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling. LandscapeEcology, 28 (5), 819-833.
Bisculm M, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, van Leeuwen JFN, Henne PD, Rothen J, Procacci G, Pasta S, La Mantia T, and Tinner W. 2012. Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics in the supra-mediterranean belt of the Nebrodi Mountains (Sicily, Italy). Journal of Quaternary Science, 27, 687-698
Bowen GJ, Kennedy CD, Henne PD, and Zhang T. 2012. Spatial footprint and magnitude of recycled water fluxes downwind of Lake Michigan. Ecosphere, 3(6): art53
Calò C, Henne PD, Curry BB, Magny M, Vescovi E, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Vannière B, and Tinner W. 2012. Spatio-temporal patterns of Holocene environmental change in Southern Sicily. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 323-325, 110-122.
Henne PD, Elkin CM, Reineking B, Bugmann H, and Tinner W. 2011. Did soil development limit spruce (Picea abies) expansion in the central Alps during the Holocene? Testing a paleobotanical hypothesis with a dynamic landscape model. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 933-949
Colombaroli D, Henne PD, Gobet E, Kaltenreider P, and Tinner W. 2010. Species responses to fire, climate, and human impact at tree-line in the Alps as evidenced by paleo-environmental records and dynamic simulation approaches. Journal of Ecology, 98, 1346-1357
Henne PD and Hu FS. 2010. Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 940-951.
Higuera PE, Gavin DG, Henne PD, and Kelly RF. 2010. Recent advances in the analysis and interpretation of sediment-charcoal records. PAGES news: 18, 2.
Tinner W, van Leeuwen JFN, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, van der Knaap WO, Henne PD, Pasta S, D'Angelo S, and La Mantia T. 2009. Holocene environmental and climatic changes at Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in southern Sicily, Italy. Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 1498-1510
Henne PD, Hu FS, and Cleland DT. 2007. Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA. Journal of Ecology 95, 517-529.
Hu FS, Lee BY, Kaufman DS, Yoneji S, Nelson DM, and Henne PD. 2002. Response of tundra ecosystem in southwestern Alaska to Younger Dryas climatic oscillations. Global Change Biology 8,1156-1163.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Understanding long-term drivers of vegetation change and stability in the Southern Rocky Mountains with paleoecological data and ecological models
Drought and fire are powerful disturbance agents that can trigger rapid and lasting changes in the forests of western North America. Over the last decade, increases in fire size and severity coincided with warming, drought, and earlier snowmelt, factors that projected climatic changes are likely to exacerbate. However, recent observations are brief relative to the lifespans of trees and include...
Drought and Disturbances as Drivers of Long-Term Ecological Transformation and Risk
Forested areas in the Western U.S. that are impacted by disturbances such as fire and drought have increased in recent decades. This trend is likely to continue, with the increase in frequency and extent of wildfire activity being especially concerning. Resource managers need reliable scientific information to better understand wildfire occurrence, which can vary substantially across landscapes an
Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA (data release)
Wildfires and housing development have increased since the 1990s, presenting unique challenges for fire management. However, it is unclear how the relative influences of housing growth and changing wildfire occurrence have contributed to risk to homes. We fit a random forest using weather, land cover, topography, and past fire history to predict burn probabilities and uncertainty intervals. Then,
Simulated annual area burned for eleven extensively forested ecoregions in the western United States for 1980 - 2099
This data release provides output produced by a statistical, aridity threshold fire model for 11 extensively forested ecoregions in the western United States. We identified thresholds in fire-season climate water deficit (FSCWD) that distinguish years with limited, moderate, and extensive area burned for each ecoregion. We developed a new area burned model using these relationships and used it to
Data inputs and outputs for simulations of species distributions in response to future fire size and climate change in the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model and the LINKAGES 3.0 ecosystem process model for the temperate-boreal ecotone Great Xing'n Mountains of northeastern China, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. The study compared the impacts of small and large fires on vegetation dynamics. The data release in
Landscape inputs and simulation output for the LANDIS-II model in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS-II landscape change model, NECN and Base Fire extensions for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. We ran LANDIS-II simulations for 112 years, from 1988-2100, using interpolated weather station data for 1988-2015 and downscaled output from 5
Data release for: Spatially explicit reconstruction of post-megafire forest recovery through landscape modeling
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model and the LINKAGES 3.0 ecosystem process model for the area burned by the Black Dragon Fire in northeast China in 1987, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. The data release includes the fire perimeter of Great Dragon Fire; input data for LINKAGES including soil
Pre-fire biomass, burn severity, biomass consumption, and fire perimeter data for the 1987 Black Dragon Fire in China
Geospatial data were developed to characterize pre-fire biomass, burn severity, and biomass consumed for the Black Dragon Fire that burned in northern China in 1987. Pre-fire aboveground tree biomass (Mh/ha) raster data were derived by relating plot-level forest inventory data with pre-fire Landsat imagery from 1986 and 1987. Biomass data were generated for individual species: Dahurian larch (Lari
Data release for: Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China
Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition can
Data release for estimating soil respiration in a subalpine landscape using point, terrain, climate and greenness data
Landscape carbon (C) flux estimates are necessary for assessing the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to buffer further increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Advances in remote sensing have allowed for coarse-scale estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) (e.g., MODIS 17), yet efforts to assess spatial patterns in respiration lag behind those of GPP. Here, we demonstrate
Science and Products
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Filter Total Items: 18
Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA
Wildfires and housing development have increased since the 1990s, presenting unique challenges for wildfire management. However, it is unclear how the relative influences of housing growth and changing wildfire occurrence have altered risk to homes, or the potential for wildfire to threaten homes. We used a random forests model to predict burn probability in relation to weather variables at 1-km rAuthorsTodd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Melanie K. Vanderhoof, Amanda R. Carlson, Miranda H. Mockrin, Volker C. RadeloffAn aridity threshold model of fire sizes and annual area burned in extensively forested ecoregions of the western USA
Wildfire occurrence varies among regions and through time due to the long-term impacts of climate on fuel structure and short-term impacts on fuel flammability. Identifying the climatic conditions that trigger extensive fire years at regional scales can enable development of area burned models that are both spatially and temporally robust, which is crucial for understanding the impacts of past andAuthorsPaul D. Henne, Todd HawbakerA new indicator approach to reconstruct agricultural land use in Europe from sedimentary pollen assemblages
The reconstruction of human impact is pivotal in palaeoecological studies, as humans are among the most important drivers of Holocene vegetation and ecosystem change. Nevertheless, separating the anthropogenic footprint on vegetation dynamics from the impact of climate and other environmental factors (disturbances such as fire, erosion, floods, landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions) is a chalAuthorsMara Deza-Araujo, César Morales-Molino, Marco Conedera, Paul D. Henne, Patrick Krebs, Martin Hinz, Caroline Heitz, Albert Hafner, Willy TinnerLarge fires or small fires, will they differ in affecting shifts in species composition and distributions under climate change?
Climate change is expected to increase fire activity, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in species composition and distribution in the boreal-temperate ecotone. Wildfire can kill resident trees, and thus provide establishment opportunities for migrating tree species. However, the role of fire size and its interactions with tree species with varied life-history attributesAuthorsWenru Xu, Hong S. He, Chao Huang, Shengwu Duan, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Yu Liang, Zhiliang ZhuAlpine glacier reveals ecosystem impacts of Europe's prosperity and peril over the last millennium
Information about past ecosystem dynamics and human activities is stored in the ice of Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Swiss Alps. Adverse climatic intervals incurred crop failures and famines and triggered reestablishment of forest vegetation but also societal resilience through innovation. Historical documents and lake sediments record these changes at local—regional scales but often struggle to cAuthorsSandra O. Brugger, Margit Schwikowski, Erika Gobet, Christoph Schworer, Christian Rohr, Michael Sigl, Stephan Henne, Christian Pfister, Theo M. Jenk, Paul D. Henne, Willy Tinner8,000 years of climate, vegetation, fire and land-use dynamics in the thermo-mediterranean vegetation belt of northern Sardinia (Italy)
Knowledge about the vegetation history of Sardinia, the second largest island of the Mediterranean, is scanty. Here, we present a new sedimentary record covering the past ~ 8,000 years from Lago di Baratz, north-west Sardinia. Vegetation and fire history are reconstructed by pollen, spores, macrofossils and charcoal analyses and environmental dynamics by high-resolution element geochemistry togethAuthorsTiziana Pedrotta, Erika Gobet, Christoph Schwörer, Giorgia Beffa, Christoph Butz, Paul D. Henne, César Morales-Molino, Salvatore Pasta, Jacqueline Van Leeuwen, Hendrik Vogel, Elias Zwimpfer, Flavio Anselmetti, Martin Grosjean, Willy TinnerThe changes in species composition mediate direct effects of climate change on future fire regimes of boreal forests in northeastern China
Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature rise, changes in seasonal precipitation, wind patterns and atmospheric stability) affect fire regimes of boreal forests by altering fire behaviour, fire seasons and fuel moisture. Climate change also alters species composition and fuel characteristics, which subsequently alter fire regimes. However, indirect effects of climate change are often simAuthorsChao Huang, Hong S. He, Yu Liang, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Wenru Xu, Peng Gong, Zhiliang ZhuIncreased burning in a warming climate reduces carbon uptake in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem despite productivity gains
1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can increase carbon uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance carbon release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires.2. To understand the consequences of climate change forAuthorsPaul D. Henne, Todd Hawbaker, Robert M. Scheller, Feng S Zhao, Hong S He, Wenru Xu, Zhiliang ZhuSpatially explicit reconstruction of post-megafire forest recovery through landscape modeling
Megafires are large wildfires that occur under extreme weather conditions and produce mixed burn severities across diverse environmental gradients. Assessing megafire effects requires data covering large spatiotemporal extents, which are difficult to collect from field inventories. Remote sensing provides an alternative but is limited in revealing post-fire recovery trajectories and the underlyingAuthorsWenru Xu, Hong He, Jacob S. Fraser, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Shengwu Duan, Zhiliang ZhuA critical assessment of human-impact indices based on anthropogenic pollen indicators
Anthropogenic pollen indicators in pollen records are an established tool for reconstructing the history of human impacts on vegetation and landscapes. They are also used to disentangle the influence of human activities and climatic variability on ecosystems. The comprehensive anthropogenic pollen-indicator approach developed by Behre (1981) has been widely used, including beyond its original geogAuthorsMara Deza-Araujo, César Morales-Molino, Willy Tinner, Paul D. Henne, Caroline Heitz, Gianni B Pezzatti, Albert Hafner, Marco ConederaEvaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China
Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition canAuthorsYuanyuan Fu, Hong S He, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne, Zhiliang Zhu, David R. LarsenA landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes
Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic ProcesseAuthorsRobert M Scheller, Alec Kretchun, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. HenneNon-USGS Publications**
Beffa G, Pedrotta T, Colombaroli D, Henne PD, van Leeuwen JFN, Süsstrunk P, Kaltenrieder P, Adolf C, Vogel H, Pasta S, Anselmetti FS, Gobet E, and Tinner W. 2016. Vegetation and fire history of coastal north-eastern Sardinia (Italy) under changing Holocene climates and land use. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany. 25(3), 271-289. doi: 10.1007/s00334-015-0548-5.Ruosch M, Spahni R, Joos F, Henne PD, van der Knaap WO, and Tinner W. 2016. Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe – comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations. Global Change Biology. 22(2), 727-740. doi:10.1111/gcb.13075.Tinner W, Conedera M, Bugmann H, Colombaroli D, Gobet E, Vescovi E, Heiri O, Luterbacher J, La Mantia T, Pasta S, and Henne PD. Europäische Wälder unter wärmeren Klimabedingungen: neue Erkenntnisse aus Paläoökologie und dynamischer Vegetationsmodellierung. 2016: AFZ – DerWald: 45-49.Tinner W, Conedera M, Bugmann G, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, Heiri O, Joos F, Luterbacher J, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Pedrotta T, Manetti MC, and Henne PD. 2016. Quali formazioni boschive in un clima più caldo? Sherwood - Foreste ed Alberi Oggi: 221, 37-42.Henne PD, Elkin C, Franke J, Colombaroli D, Calò C, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Conedera M, Dermody O, and Tinner W. Reviving extinct Mediterranean forests increases ecosystem potential in a warmer future. 2015. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 13(7), 356-362, doi:10.1890/150027Gavin DG, Fitzpatrick MC, Gugger PF, Heath KD, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Dobrowski SZ, Hampe A, Hu FS, Ashcroft MB, Bartlein PJ, Blois JL, Carstens BC, Davis EB, de Lafontaine G, Edwards ME, Fernandez M, Henne PD, Herring EM, Holden ZA, Kong W, Liu J, Magri D, Matzke NJ, McGlone MS, Saltré F, Stigall AL, Tsai YE, and Williams JW. 2014. Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography. New Phytologist, 204 (1), 37-54.Schwörer C, Henne PD, and Tinner W. 2014. A model-data comparison of Holocene timberline changes in the Swiss Alps reveals past and future drivers of mountain forest dynamics. Global Change Biology, 20, 1512-1526.Bugmann H, Brang P, Elkin C, Henne PD, Jakoby O, Lévesque M, Lischke H, Psomas A, Rigling A, Wermelinger B, and Zimmermann NE. 2014. Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services, In: CH-2014 Impacts, Toward quantitative scenarios of climate change impacts in Switzerland. Published by OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope, and ProClim, Bern, Switzerland, pp. 79-89.Tinner W, Colombaroli D, Heiri O, Henne PD, Steinacher M, Untenecker J, Vescovi E, Allen JRM, Carrara G, Conedera M, Joos F, Lotter AF, Luterbacher J, Samartin S, and Valsecchi V. 2013. The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming. Ecological Monographs, 83(4), 419-439.Calò C, Henne PD, Eugster P, van Leeuwen JFN, Gilli A, Hamann Y, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Vescovi E, and Tinner W. 2013. 1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy. The Holocene, 23 (10), 1477-1486.Henne PD, Elkin C, Colombaroli D, Samartin S, Bugmann H, Heiri O, and Tinner W. 2013. Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: Insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling. LandscapeEcology, 28 (5), 819-833.Bisculm M, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, van Leeuwen JFN, Henne PD, Rothen J, Procacci G, Pasta S, La Mantia T, and Tinner W. 2012. Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics in the supra-mediterranean belt of the Nebrodi Mountains (Sicily, Italy). Journal of Quaternary Science, 27, 687-698Bowen GJ, Kennedy CD, Henne PD, and Zhang T. 2012. Spatial footprint and magnitude of recycled water fluxes downwind of Lake Michigan. Ecosphere, 3(6): art53Calò C, Henne PD, Curry BB, Magny M, Vescovi E, La Mantia T, Pasta S, Vannière B, and Tinner W. 2012. Spatio-temporal patterns of Holocene environmental change in Southern Sicily. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 323-325, 110-122.Henne PD, Elkin CM, Reineking B, Bugmann H, and Tinner W. 2011. Did soil development limit spruce (Picea abies) expansion in the central Alps during the Holocene? Testing a paleobotanical hypothesis with a dynamic landscape model. Journal of Biogeography, 38, 933-949Colombaroli D, Henne PD, Gobet E, Kaltenreider P, and Tinner W. 2010. Species responses to fire, climate, and human impact at tree-line in the Alps as evidenced by paleo-environmental records and dynamic simulation approaches. Journal of Ecology, 98, 1346-1357Henne PD and Hu FS. 2010. Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 940-951.Higuera PE, Gavin DG, Henne PD, and Kelly RF. 2010. Recent advances in the analysis and interpretation of sediment-charcoal records. PAGES news: 18, 2.Tinner W, van Leeuwen JFN, Colombaroli D, Vescovi E, van der Knaap WO, Henne PD, Pasta S, D'Angelo S, and La Mantia T. 2009. Holocene environmental and climatic changes at Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in southern Sicily, Italy. Quaternary Science Reviews 28, 1498-1510Henne PD, Hu FS, and Cleland DT. 2007. Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA. Journal of Ecology 95, 517-529.Hu FS, Lee BY, Kaufman DS, Yoneji S, Nelson DM, and Henne PD. 2002. Response of tundra ecosystem in southwestern Alaska to Younger Dryas climatic oscillations. Global Change Biology 8,1156-1163.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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Understanding long-term drivers of vegetation change and stability in the Southern Rocky Mountains with paleoecological data and ecological models
Drought and fire are powerful disturbance agents that can trigger rapid and lasting changes in the forests of western North America. Over the last decade, increases in fire size and severity coincided with warming, drought, and earlier snowmelt, factors that projected climatic changes are likely to exacerbate. However, recent observations are brief relative to the lifespans of trees and include...Drought and Disturbances as Drivers of Long-Term Ecological Transformation and Risk
Forested areas in the Western U.S. that are impacted by disturbances such as fire and drought have increased in recent decades. This trend is likely to continue, with the increase in frequency and extent of wildfire activity being especially concerning. Resource managers need reliable scientific information to better understand wildfire occurrence, which can vary substantially across landscapes an - Data
Changes in wildfire occurrence and risk to homes from 1990 through 2019 in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA (data release)
Wildfires and housing development have increased since the 1990s, presenting unique challenges for fire management. However, it is unclear how the relative influences of housing growth and changing wildfire occurrence have contributed to risk to homes. We fit a random forest using weather, land cover, topography, and past fire history to predict burn probabilities and uncertainty intervals. Then,Simulated annual area burned for eleven extensively forested ecoregions in the western United States for 1980 - 2099
This data release provides output produced by a statistical, aridity threshold fire model for 11 extensively forested ecoregions in the western United States. We identified thresholds in fire-season climate water deficit (FSCWD) that distinguish years with limited, moderate, and extensive area burned for each ecoregion. We developed a new area burned model using these relationships and used it toData inputs and outputs for simulations of species distributions in response to future fire size and climate change in the boreal-temperate ecotone of northeastern China
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model and the LINKAGES 3.0 ecosystem process model for the temperate-boreal ecotone Great Xing'n Mountains of northeastern China, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. The study compared the impacts of small and large fires on vegetation dynamics. The data release inLandscape inputs and simulation output for the LANDIS-II model in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS-II landscape change model, NECN and Base Fire extensions for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. We ran LANDIS-II simulations for 112 years, from 1988-2100, using interpolated weather station data for 1988-2015 and downscaled output from 5Data release for: Spatially explicit reconstruction of post-megafire forest recovery through landscape modeling
This data release provides inputs needed to run the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model and the LINKAGES 3.0 ecosystem process model for the area burned by the Black Dragon Fire in northeast China in 1987, and simulation results that underlie figures and analysis in the accompanying publication. The data release includes the fire perimeter of Great Dragon Fire; input data for LINKAGES including soilPre-fire biomass, burn severity, biomass consumption, and fire perimeter data for the 1987 Black Dragon Fire in China
Geospatial data were developed to characterize pre-fire biomass, burn severity, and biomass consumed for the Black Dragon Fire that burned in northern China in 1987. Pre-fire aboveground tree biomass (Mh/ha) raster data were derived by relating plot-level forest inventory data with pre-fire Landsat imagery from 1986 and 1987. Biomass data were generated for individual species: Dahurian larch (LariData release for: Evaluating k-nearest neighbor (kNN) imputation models for species-level aboveground forest biomass mapping in northeast China
Quantifying spatially explicit or pixel-level aboveground forest biomass (AFB) across large regions is critical for measuring forest carbon sequestration capacity, assessing forest carbon balance, and revealing changes in the structure and function of forest ecosystems. When AFB is measured at the species level using widely available remote sensing data, regional changes in forest composition canData release for estimating soil respiration in a subalpine landscape using point, terrain, climate and greenness data
Landscape carbon (C) flux estimates are necessary for assessing the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to buffer further increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Advances in remote sensing have allowed for coarse-scale estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) (e.g., MODIS 17), yet efforts to assess spatial patterns in respiration lag behind those of GPP. Here, we demonstrate - News