- Tree death rates have more than doubled over the last few decades in old-growth forests of our western states, possibly reflecting increasing temperatures, with potentially serious consequences for wildlife, fire risks, and the global carbon cycle
Phillip van Mantgem
Phil van Mantgem is a research ecologist at the Western Ecological Research Center.
RESEARCH INTERESTS
- Conservation biology
- Fire ecology
- Forest ecology
Professional Experience
Research Ecologist, USGS, Redwood Field Station, Arcata, CA, 2008 - Present
Ecologist, USGS, Sequoia and Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, CA, 2000 - 2008
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA 2001
M.S., Plant Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 1996
B.S., Botany, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 1991
Science and Products
Characterizing Post-Fire Burn Severity And Vegetation Recovery At High Spatial And Temporal Resolutions Using Basal Area Measurements
USGS scientists are studying the effects of wildfires on forests and developing models to predict forest recovery potential after fires. They have collected and analyzed data from several recent California wildfires, including the Dixie, Caldor, KNP Complex, Carr, and Mosquito fires. Researchers are using the data to analyze changes in basal area (the cross-sectional area of tree trunks) to...
WERC Fire Science
WERC scientists are defining the past, present, and future of wildfires for wildlife and human communities. Explore this webpage to learn about specific, ongoing projects across California and parts of Nevada.
Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions
Fire size, frequency, overall area burned, and severity are increasing across many vegetation types in the southwestern U.S. In many cases, large contiguous areas are burning repeatedly at high severity, triggering vegetation type conversions (VTC), where once-dominant coniferous forests fail to return to their pre-fire state, often transitioning to shrub- or grass-dominated systems. Loss of these
Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration Under a Warming Climate: Will Severe Fire Be a Catalyst for Forest Loss?
The Southwest U.S. is experiencing hotter droughts, which are contributing to more frequent, severe wildfires. These droughts also stress vegetation, which can make it more difficult for forests to recover after fire. Forest regeneration in burned areas may be limited because seeds have to travel long distances to recolonize, and when they do arrive, conditions are often unfavorably hot and dry. C
Drought and Western Forests
USGS WERC's Dr. Phil van Mantgem and his collaborators are using plot-based methods to describe change and vulnerability to drought in the forests of the western United States. A focus of this work is the installation and maintenance of large (1 ha) monitoring plots. Many other vegetation monitoring strategies are based on small (0.1 ha) plots, which may not be sufficient to detect changes in...
Forest Restoration in the Western U.S.
This project uses new and existing field data to assess forest restoration treatment effects across broad spatial and temporal scales. WERC's Dr. Phil van Mantgem and project partners are considering the effects of restoration treatments in terms of forest structure, forest stand development, subsequent tree mortality patterns mortality, and how climate influences the success or failure of...
Fire Severity Trends in the Western U.S.
How will increased drought affect forest fire severity? WERC’s Dr. Phil van Mantgem is testing the idea increased drought stress may affect forest fire severity independent of fire intensity. Drought stress prior to fire can affect tree health, potentially resulting in a higher sensitivity to fire-induced damage. Thus, with drought there may be ongoing increases in fire severity (the number of...
Redwood Field Station
The Redwood Field Station is located in Arcata, CA. Click on the following tab to learn more.
Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains?
In 2017, California was experiencing its most severe drought in over a millennia. Low rainfall and record high temperatures resulted in increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks across the West. Though land managers scrambled to respond, they lacked information needed to make informed decisions. Focusing on California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, this project seeks t
Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest
Drought is one of the biggest threats facing our forests today. In the western U.S., severe drought and rising temperatures have caused increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks. Forests are changing rapidly, and while land managers are working to develop long-term climate change adaptation plans, they require tools that can enhance forest resistance to drought now. To address this imm
How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.?
There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of h
Characterizing a link in the terrestrial carbon cycle: a global overview of individual tree mass growth
Forests sequester the majority of the terrestrial biosphere’s carbon and are key components of the global carbon cycle, potentially contributing substantial feedbacks to ongoing climatic changes. It is therefore remarkable that no consensus yet exists about the fundamental nature of tree mass growth (and thus carbon sequestration rate). Specifically, does tree mass growth rate increase, decrease,
Forest Conditions Following the 2018 Carr Fire at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
This data release provides forest structure information including basal area and stem density by genus and mortality status for overstory and sapling trees in 149 plots in Whiskeytown National Recreation area in California, USA. The data includes forest structure measurements taken before and after the 2018 Carr Fire, a nearly 93,000 hectare wildfire.
Tree Growth at Redwood National Park from 1970 to 2015
This dataset describes tree growth and site characteristics for 26 monitoring plots in 3 sites in Redwood National Park in California, USA. One site (A972) was established and sampled in 2007, 2008, and 2013 (Dagley and others, 2023). Two sites (Holter Ridge and Whiskey 40) were established and sampled in 2009 (van Mantgem and Das, 2014). Six existing plots in the Holter Ridge and Whiskey 40 sites
Data Describing Site Characteristics Including Conifer Regeneration Following the 2018 Carr Fire in Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
This dataset provides seedling density and site characteristics for 131 plots in Whiskeytown National Recreation Area in California, USA. Site characteristics include modeled seed availability and terrain indices calculated using a 1 meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM).
Stem and Needle Growth for Whitebark Pine in the Sierra Nevada
These data represent stem growth, needle length growth, and carbon stable isotope ratios from whitebark pine at 27 sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Values for stem growth were derived from increment cores, processed following standard methods. Needle characteristics were captured for individual trees across all years needles were present on the internodes. Needle length was measured in th
Growth, Drought Response, and Genomic Structure Data for Whitebark Pine in the Sierra Nevada of California (ver. 2.0, May 2023)
These data represent stem growth from whitebark pine at 27 sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Values for stem growth were derived from increment cores, processed following standard methods. Samples were also compared against a genomic data collected at the same trees.
These data support the following publication:
van Mantgem, P.J., Milano, E.R., Dudney, J., Nesmith, J.C.B, Vandergast, A.
Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks Mortality and Fire Data (1990-2019) for Competition-Fire-Drought Interaction Analysis
This dataset records mortality-- including involvement of bark beetles-- and burn severity information for trees in long term forest dynamics plots in Sequoia National Park and Yosemite National Park that experienced fire.
These data support the following publication:
Furniss, T.J., Das, A.J., van Mantgem, P.J., Stephenson, N.L. and Lutz, J.A., 2021. Crowding, climate, and the case for soci
Data for Use in poscrptR Post-fire Conifer Regeneration Prediction Model
These data support poscrptR (Wright et al. 2021). poscrptR is a shiny app that predicts the probability of post-fire conifer regeneration for fire data supplied by the user. The predictive model was fit using presence/absence data collected in 4.4m radius plots (60 square meters). Please refer to Stewart et al. (2020) for more details concerning field data collection, the model fitting process, an
Forest Structure Data for Burned and Unburned Sites at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks
These data represent tree diameter, species, mortality status, and plot attributes from 164 plots in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, California. Plots were matched with local records of recent fire history to determine burn status and year burned if applicable.
These data support the following publication:
van Mantgem, P.J., Caprio, A.C., Stephenson, N.L. and Das, A.J., 2021. Forest Re
Post-fire conifer regeneration observations for National Forest land in California (2009 - 2017)
This data consists of presence/absence observations for post-fire conifer regeneration. The data also includes estimates of plot-level topography (slope, aspect), relativized differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR), post-fire climate, live basal area, and seed rain.
These data support the following publication:
Fire Caused Tree Mortality in Western US National Parks (2018)(ver. 2.0, February 2020)
This data consists of observations of individual trees that were subjected to prescribed fire in western US national parks. Information on individual trees include measurements of tree size, competition, and fire-caused damage. The data also includes estimates of plot-level vapor pressure deficit anomaly before fire.
These data support the following publication:
Van Mantgem, P.J., Falk, D.A., Wil
SneakPeek: USGS Public Lecture, Can Our Western Forests Take the Heat?
SneakPeek: USGS Public Lecture, Can Our Western Forests Take the Heat?
- Tree death rates have more than doubled over the last few decades in old-growth forests of our western states, possibly reflecting increasing temperatures, with potentially serious consequences for wildlife, fire risks, and the global carbon cycle
Filter Total Items: 73
Learning from a high-severity fire event—Conditions following the 2018 Carr Fire at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
The 2018 Carr Fire burned more than 90 percent of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, with much of the park burning at high severity. California yellow pine and mixed conifer forests are not well adapted to large, high-severity fires, and forest recovery after these events may be problematic. Large, high-severity fire patches pose difficulties for recruitment with interiors that are long distanc
Authors
Phillip J. van Mantgem, Micah C. Wright, Karen M. Thorne, Jill Beckmann, Kevin Buffington, Lyndsay L. Rankin, Audrey Colley, Eamon A. Engber
Spatially explicit models of seed availability improve predictions of conifer regeneration following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California
For many conifer species in dry conifer forests of North America, seeds must be present for postfire regeneration to occur, suggesting that seed dispersal from surviving trees plays a critical role in postfire forest recovery. However, the application of tree fecundity and spatial arrangement to postfire conifer recovery predictions have only recently become more common, and is often included at r
Authors
Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Kevin Buffington, Karen M. Thorne, Eamon Engber, Sean Smith
Best practices for distributing and deploying U.S. Geological Survey Shiny applications
A goal of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research is to create actionable science for U.S. Department of the Interior managers and partners. Properly managed and released software tools can quickly, accurately, and easily translate scientific results to aid managers’ decision-making. The USGS policies on software development and distribution affect how authors of USGS software products must navigat
Authors
Daniel F. Shryock, Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Todd C. Esque
Growth, drought response, and climate-associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warmi
Authors
Phillip J. van Mantgem, Elizabeth R. Milano, Joan Dudney, Jonathan C.B. Nesmith, Amy G. Vandergast, Harold S.J. Zald
The energy–water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios
Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the domi
Authors
Joan Dudney, Andrew M. Latimer, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Harold S. Zald, Claire E Willing, Jonathan C.B. Nesmith, Jennifer E Cribbs, Elizabeth R. Milano
Forest structure and residual tree growth at the Northwest Gateway project area, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California
Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire are common mitigation treatments to reduce fire hazards. However, these treatments are infrequently applied together within national parks. The Northwest Gateway project at Lassen Volcanic National Park is an exception to this pattern. Various thinning prescriptions were applied to the project area in 2014, with a subset of the area prescribed burned in 2018
Authors
Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Calvin Farris
Drought survival strategies differ between coastal and montane conifers in northern California
Increasingly severe and prolonged droughts are contributing to tree stress and forest mortality across western North America. However, in many cases, we currently have poor information concerning how drought responses in forests vary in relation to competition, climate, and site and tree characteristics. We used annual tree ring evidence of 13C discrimination (Δ13C) and growth metrics to assess dr
Authors
Wallis Robinson, Lucy P. Kerhoulas, Rosemary L. Sherriff, Gabriel Roletti, Phillip J. van Mantgem
Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury
A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergon
Authors
Timothy M. Shearman, J. Morgan Varner, Sharon M. Hood, Phillip J. van Mantgem, C. Alina Cansler, Micah C. Wright
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses
Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet cur
Authors
Christopher H. Guiterman, Rachel M. Gregg, Laura A.E. Marshall, Jill Beckmann, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Jon Keeley, Anthony C. Caprio, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Collin Haffey, R. Keala Hagmann, Stephen Jackson, Ann M. Lynch, Ellis Margolis, Christopher Marks, Marc D. Meyer, Hugh Safford, Alexandra Dunya Syphard, Alan H. Taylor, Craig Wilcox, Dennis Carril, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, David W. Huffman, Jose Iniguez, Nicole A. Molinari, Christina M Restaino, Jens T. Stevens
Long-term effects of prescribed fire on large tree growth in mixed conifer forests at Lassen Volcanic National Park, California
Prescribed fire in dry coniferous forests of the western U.S. is used to reduce fire hazards. How large, old trees respond to these treatments is an important management consideration. Growth is a key indicator of residual tree condition, which can be predictive of mortality and response to future disturbance. Using a combination of long-term plot records and dendrochronological samples, we analyz
Authors
Zachary Wenderott, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Micah C. Wright, Calvin A. Farris, Rosemary L. Sherriff
Mechanisms of forest resilience
Ecosystems are dynamic systems with complex responses to environmental variation. In response to pervasive stressors of changing climate and disturbance regimes, many ecosystems are realigning rapidly across spatial scales, in many cases moving outside of their observed historical range of variation into alternative ecological states. In some cases, these new states are transitory and represent su
Authors
Donald A. Falk, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Jon Keeley, Rachel M Gregg, Christopher H. Guiterman, Alan J. Tepley, Derek J N Young, Laura A. E. Marshall
Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees
In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate–vegetation–disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retr
Authors
Tucker J. Furniss, Adrian Das, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Nathan L. Stephenson, James A. Lutz
poscrptR
poscrptR is a simple R package with the sole purpose of distributing a shiny app
for predicting post-fire conifer regeneration. Learn more about shiny apps here.
Seed source, not drought, determines patterns of seed production in Sierra Nevada conifers
This release consists of data collected from 26 plots in two national parks over a 19-year period. The data consists of plot-level seed counts for three genera, number of seed traps, live tree basal area, plot area, and climate metrics from the gridmet gridded data set, the daymet gridded data set, the PRISM gridded data set, and two nearby COOP stations.
Science and Products
Characterizing Post-Fire Burn Severity And Vegetation Recovery At High Spatial And Temporal Resolutions Using Basal Area Measurements
USGS scientists are studying the effects of wildfires on forests and developing models to predict forest recovery potential after fires. They have collected and analyzed data from several recent California wildfires, including the Dixie, Caldor, KNP Complex, Carr, and Mosquito fires. Researchers are using the data to analyze changes in basal area (the cross-sectional area of tree trunks) to...
WERC Fire Science
WERC scientists are defining the past, present, and future of wildfires for wildlife and human communities. Explore this webpage to learn about specific, ongoing projects across California and parts of Nevada.
Understanding Fire-caused Vegetation Type Conversion in Southwestern Conifer Forests under Current and Future Climate Conditions
Fire size, frequency, overall area burned, and severity are increasing across many vegetation types in the southwestern U.S. In many cases, large contiguous areas are burning repeatedly at high severity, triggering vegetation type conversions (VTC), where once-dominant coniferous forests fail to return to their pre-fire state, often transitioning to shrub- or grass-dominated systems. Loss of these
Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration Under a Warming Climate: Will Severe Fire Be a Catalyst for Forest Loss?
The Southwest U.S. is experiencing hotter droughts, which are contributing to more frequent, severe wildfires. These droughts also stress vegetation, which can make it more difficult for forests to recover after fire. Forest regeneration in burned areas may be limited because seeds have to travel long distances to recolonize, and when they do arrive, conditions are often unfavorably hot and dry. C
Drought and Western Forests
USGS WERC's Dr. Phil van Mantgem and his collaborators are using plot-based methods to describe change and vulnerability to drought in the forests of the western United States. A focus of this work is the installation and maintenance of large (1 ha) monitoring plots. Many other vegetation monitoring strategies are based on small (0.1 ha) plots, which may not be sufficient to detect changes in...
Forest Restoration in the Western U.S.
This project uses new and existing field data to assess forest restoration treatment effects across broad spatial and temporal scales. WERC's Dr. Phil van Mantgem and project partners are considering the effects of restoration treatments in terms of forest structure, forest stand development, subsequent tree mortality patterns mortality, and how climate influences the success or failure of...
Fire Severity Trends in the Western U.S.
How will increased drought affect forest fire severity? WERC’s Dr. Phil van Mantgem is testing the idea increased drought stress may affect forest fire severity independent of fire intensity. Drought stress prior to fire can affect tree health, potentially resulting in a higher sensitivity to fire-induced damage. Thus, with drought there may be ongoing increases in fire severity (the number of...
Redwood Field Station
The Redwood Field Station is located in Arcata, CA. Click on the following tab to learn more.
Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains?
In 2017, California was experiencing its most severe drought in over a millennia. Low rainfall and record high temperatures resulted in increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks across the West. Though land managers scrambled to respond, they lacked information needed to make informed decisions. Focusing on California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, this project seeks t
Fighting Drought with Fire: A Comparison of Burned and Unburned Forests in Drought-Impacted Areas of the Southwest
Drought is one of the biggest threats facing our forests today. In the western U.S., severe drought and rising temperatures have caused increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks. Forests are changing rapidly, and while land managers are working to develop long-term climate change adaptation plans, they require tools that can enhance forest resistance to drought now. To address this imm
How Does Drought Influence Fire Severity in the Southwestern U.S.?
There is a growing realization that current warming trends may be associated with increases in the size, frequency, and severity of forest fires in the West. While rising temperatures can create drought conditions that favor severe fires, it is also possible that drought limits the ability of trees to survive a fire. During a drought, there is less water available for trees and more outbreaks of h
Characterizing a link in the terrestrial carbon cycle: a global overview of individual tree mass growth
Forests sequester the majority of the terrestrial biosphere’s carbon and are key components of the global carbon cycle, potentially contributing substantial feedbacks to ongoing climatic changes. It is therefore remarkable that no consensus yet exists about the fundamental nature of tree mass growth (and thus carbon sequestration rate). Specifically, does tree mass growth rate increase, decrease,
Forest Conditions Following the 2018 Carr Fire at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
This data release provides forest structure information including basal area and stem density by genus and mortality status for overstory and sapling trees in 149 plots in Whiskeytown National Recreation area in California, USA. The data includes forest structure measurements taken before and after the 2018 Carr Fire, a nearly 93,000 hectare wildfire.
Tree Growth at Redwood National Park from 1970 to 2015
This dataset describes tree growth and site characteristics for 26 monitoring plots in 3 sites in Redwood National Park in California, USA. One site (A972) was established and sampled in 2007, 2008, and 2013 (Dagley and others, 2023). Two sites (Holter Ridge and Whiskey 40) were established and sampled in 2009 (van Mantgem and Das, 2014). Six existing plots in the Holter Ridge and Whiskey 40 sites
Data Describing Site Characteristics Including Conifer Regeneration Following the 2018 Carr Fire in Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
This dataset provides seedling density and site characteristics for 131 plots in Whiskeytown National Recreation Area in California, USA. Site characteristics include modeled seed availability and terrain indices calculated using a 1 meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM).
Stem and Needle Growth for Whitebark Pine in the Sierra Nevada
These data represent stem growth, needle length growth, and carbon stable isotope ratios from whitebark pine at 27 sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Values for stem growth were derived from increment cores, processed following standard methods. Needle characteristics were captured for individual trees across all years needles were present on the internodes. Needle length was measured in th
Growth, Drought Response, and Genomic Structure Data for Whitebark Pine in the Sierra Nevada of California (ver. 2.0, May 2023)
These data represent stem growth from whitebark pine at 27 sites in the Sierra Nevada of California. Values for stem growth were derived from increment cores, processed following standard methods. Samples were also compared against a genomic data collected at the same trees.
These data support the following publication:
van Mantgem, P.J., Milano, E.R., Dudney, J., Nesmith, J.C.B, Vandergast, A.
Sequoia and Yosemite National Parks Mortality and Fire Data (1990-2019) for Competition-Fire-Drought Interaction Analysis
This dataset records mortality-- including involvement of bark beetles-- and burn severity information for trees in long term forest dynamics plots in Sequoia National Park and Yosemite National Park that experienced fire.
These data support the following publication:
Furniss, T.J., Das, A.J., van Mantgem, P.J., Stephenson, N.L. and Lutz, J.A., 2021. Crowding, climate, and the case for soci
Data for Use in poscrptR Post-fire Conifer Regeneration Prediction Model
These data support poscrptR (Wright et al. 2021). poscrptR is a shiny app that predicts the probability of post-fire conifer regeneration for fire data supplied by the user. The predictive model was fit using presence/absence data collected in 4.4m radius plots (60 square meters). Please refer to Stewart et al. (2020) for more details concerning field data collection, the model fitting process, an
Forest Structure Data for Burned and Unburned Sites at Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks
These data represent tree diameter, species, mortality status, and plot attributes from 164 plots in Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks, California. Plots were matched with local records of recent fire history to determine burn status and year burned if applicable.
These data support the following publication:
van Mantgem, P.J., Caprio, A.C., Stephenson, N.L. and Das, A.J., 2021. Forest Re
Post-fire conifer regeneration observations for National Forest land in California (2009 - 2017)
This data consists of presence/absence observations for post-fire conifer regeneration. The data also includes estimates of plot-level topography (slope, aspect), relativized differenced normalized burn ratio (RdNBR), post-fire climate, live basal area, and seed rain.
These data support the following publication:
Fire Caused Tree Mortality in Western US National Parks (2018)(ver. 2.0, February 2020)
This data consists of observations of individual trees that were subjected to prescribed fire in western US national parks. Information on individual trees include measurements of tree size, competition, and fire-caused damage. The data also includes estimates of plot-level vapor pressure deficit anomaly before fire.
These data support the following publication:
Van Mantgem, P.J., Falk, D.A., Wil
SneakPeek: USGS Public Lecture, Can Our Western Forests Take the Heat?
SneakPeek: USGS Public Lecture, Can Our Western Forests Take the Heat?
- Tree death rates have more than doubled over the last few decades in old-growth forests of our western states, possibly reflecting increasing temperatures, with potentially serious consequences for wildlife, fire risks, and the global carbon cycle
- Tree death rates have more than doubled over the last few decades in old-growth forests of our western states, possibly reflecting increasing temperatures, with potentially serious consequences for wildlife, fire risks, and the global carbon cycle
Filter Total Items: 73
Learning from a high-severity fire event—Conditions following the 2018 Carr Fire at Whiskeytown National Recreation Area
The 2018 Carr Fire burned more than 90 percent of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area, with much of the park burning at high severity. California yellow pine and mixed conifer forests are not well adapted to large, high-severity fires, and forest recovery after these events may be problematic. Large, high-severity fire patches pose difficulties for recruitment with interiors that are long distanc
Authors
Phillip J. van Mantgem, Micah C. Wright, Karen M. Thorne, Jill Beckmann, Kevin Buffington, Lyndsay L. Rankin, Audrey Colley, Eamon A. Engber
Spatially explicit models of seed availability improve predictions of conifer regeneration following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California
For many conifer species in dry conifer forests of North America, seeds must be present for postfire regeneration to occur, suggesting that seed dispersal from surviving trees plays a critical role in postfire forest recovery. However, the application of tree fecundity and spatial arrangement to postfire conifer recovery predictions have only recently become more common, and is often included at r
Authors
Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Kevin Buffington, Karen M. Thorne, Eamon Engber, Sean Smith
Best practices for distributing and deploying U.S. Geological Survey Shiny applications
A goal of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research is to create actionable science for U.S. Department of the Interior managers and partners. Properly managed and released software tools can quickly, accurately, and easily translate scientific results to aid managers’ decision-making. The USGS policies on software development and distribution affect how authors of USGS software products must navigat
Authors
Daniel F. Shryock, Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Todd C. Esque
Growth, drought response, and climate-associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California
Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warmi
Authors
Phillip J. van Mantgem, Elizabeth R. Milano, Joan Dudney, Jonathan C.B. Nesmith, Amy G. Vandergast, Harold S.J. Zald
The energy–water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios
Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the domi
Authors
Joan Dudney, Andrew M. Latimer, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Harold S. Zald, Claire E Willing, Jonathan C.B. Nesmith, Jennifer E Cribbs, Elizabeth R. Milano
Forest structure and residual tree growth at the Northwest Gateway project area, Lassen Volcanic National Park, California
Mechanical thinning and prescribed fire are common mitigation treatments to reduce fire hazards. However, these treatments are infrequently applied together within national parks. The Northwest Gateway project at Lassen Volcanic National Park is an exception to this pattern. Various thinning prescriptions were applied to the project area in 2014, with a subset of the area prescribed burned in 2018
Authors
Micah C. Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Calvin Farris
Drought survival strategies differ between coastal and montane conifers in northern California
Increasingly severe and prolonged droughts are contributing to tree stress and forest mortality across western North America. However, in many cases, we currently have poor information concerning how drought responses in forests vary in relation to competition, climate, and site and tree characteristics. We used annual tree ring evidence of 13C discrimination (Δ13C) and growth metrics to assess dr
Authors
Wallis Robinson, Lucy P. Kerhoulas, Rosemary L. Sherriff, Gabriel Roletti, Phillip J. van Mantgem
Predictive accuracy of post-fire conifer death declines over time in models based on crown and bole injury
A key uncertainty of empirical models of post-fire tree mortality is understanding the drivers of elevated post-fire mortality several years following fire, known as delayed mortality. Delayed mortality can represent a substantial fraction of mortality, particularly for large trees that are a conservation focus in western US coniferous forests. Current post-fire tree mortality models have undergon
Authors
Timothy M. Shearman, J. Morgan Varner, Sharon M. Hood, Phillip J. van Mantgem, C. Alina Cansler, Micah C. Wright
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses
Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet cur
Authors
Christopher H. Guiterman, Rachel M. Gregg, Laura A.E. Marshall, Jill Beckmann, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Jon Keeley, Anthony C. Caprio, Jonathan D. Coop, Paula J. Fornwalt, Collin Haffey, R. Keala Hagmann, Stephen Jackson, Ann M. Lynch, Ellis Margolis, Christopher Marks, Marc D. Meyer, Hugh Safford, Alexandra Dunya Syphard, Alan H. Taylor, Craig Wilcox, Dennis Carril, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, David W. Huffman, Jose Iniguez, Nicole A. Molinari, Christina M Restaino, Jens T. Stevens
Long-term effects of prescribed fire on large tree growth in mixed conifer forests at Lassen Volcanic National Park, California
Prescribed fire in dry coniferous forests of the western U.S. is used to reduce fire hazards. How large, old trees respond to these treatments is an important management consideration. Growth is a key indicator of residual tree condition, which can be predictive of mortality and response to future disturbance. Using a combination of long-term plot records and dendrochronological samples, we analyz
Authors
Zachary Wenderott, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Micah C. Wright, Calvin A. Farris, Rosemary L. Sherriff
Mechanisms of forest resilience
Ecosystems are dynamic systems with complex responses to environmental variation. In response to pervasive stressors of changing climate and disturbance regimes, many ecosystems are realigning rapidly across spatial scales, in many cases moving outside of their observed historical range of variation into alternative ecological states. In some cases, these new states are transitory and represent su
Authors
Donald A. Falk, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Jon Keeley, Rachel M Gregg, Christopher H. Guiterman, Alan J. Tepley, Derek J N Young, Laura A. E. Marshall
Crowding, climate, and the case for social distancing among trees
In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate–vegetation–disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retr
Authors
Tucker J. Furniss, Adrian Das, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Nathan L. Stephenson, James A. Lutz
poscrptR
poscrptR is a simple R package with the sole purpose of distributing a shiny app
for predicting post-fire conifer regeneration. Learn more about shiny apps here.
Seed source, not drought, determines patterns of seed production in Sierra Nevada conifers
This release consists of data collected from 26 plots in two national parks over a 19-year period. The data consists of plot-level seed counts for three genera, number of seed traps, live tree basal area, plot area, and climate metrics from the gridmet gridded data set, the daymet gridded data set, the PRISM gridded data set, and two nearby COOP stations.