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Natural disasters: forecasting economic and life losses Natural disasters: forecasting economic and life losses

Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and tornadoes are natural disasters because they negatively impact society, and so they must be measured and understood in human-related terms. At the U.S. Geological Survey, we have developed a new method to examine fatality and dollar-loss data, and to make probabilistic estimates of the frequency and...
Authors
Stuart P. Nishenko, Christopher C. Barton

Some comparisons between recent ground-motion relations Some comparisons between recent ground-motion relations

We provide an overview of new ground-motion relations for eastern North America (ENA) developed over the last five years. The empirical-stochastic relations of Atkinson and Boore (1995) are compared to relations developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI, 1993; also Toro et al., 1994), Frankel et al. (1996), and the consensus ENA ground-motion values as reported by SSHAC...
Authors
Gail M. Atkinson, David Boore

Options for the Future of the US National Strong-Motion Program Options for the Future of the US National Strong-Motion Program

This report constitutes the requested 'Options Document'. This report considers three options. Option I assumes a constant level of financial support for Operating Expenses (OE) with not additional personnel support. Option II assumes a slight increase in OE support of $150K for FY 99 and beyond. Option III considers the role that a NSMP must play if the nation's urgent need to record...
Authors

Hydraulic modeling of unsteady debris-flow surges with solid-fluid interactions Hydraulic modeling of unsteady debris-flow surges with solid-fluid interactions

Interactions of solid and fluid constituents produce the unique style of motion that typifies debris flows. To simulate this motion, a new hydraulic model represents debris flows as deforming masses of granular solids variably liquefied by viscous pore fluid. The momentum equation of the model describes how internal and boundary forces change as coarse-grained surge heads dominated by...
Authors
Richard M. Iverson

Normalizing rainfall/debris-flow thresholds along the U.S. Pacific coast for long-term variations in precipitation climate Normalizing rainfall/debris-flow thresholds along the U.S. Pacific coast for long-term variations in precipitation climate

Broad-scale variations in long-term precipitation climate may influence rainfall/debris-flow threshold values along the U.S. Pacific coast, where both the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the number of rainfall days (#RDs) are controlled by topography, distance from the coastline, and geographic latitude. Previous authors have proposed that rainfall thresholds are directly...
Authors
Raymond C. Wilson

Geotechnical properties of debris-flow sediments and slurries Geotechnical properties of debris-flow sediments and slurries

Measurements of geotechnical properties of various poorly sorted debris-flow sediments and slurries (??? 32 mm diameter) emphasize their granular nature, and reveal that properties of slurries can differ significantly from those of compacted sediments. Measurements show that: (1) cohesion probably offers little resistance to shear in most debris flows under low confining stresses...
Authors
J. J. Major, R.M. Iverson, D.F. McTigue, S. Macias, B.K. Fiedorowicz

Debris-flow hazards in areas affected by the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia Debris-flow hazards in areas affected by the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia

A severe storm on June 27, 1995 triggered hundreds of rock, debris and soil slides from the steep hillsides of Madison County, Virginia. Most of these transformed into debris flows that inundated areas downslope causing damage to structures, roads, utilities, livestock and crops. This report contains an analysis of areas susceptible to debris flows including an examination of source...
Authors
B. A. Morgan, G. F. Wieczorek, R. H. Campbell, P. L. Gori

On the watch for geomagnetic storms On the watch for geomagnetic storms

Geomagnetic storms, induced by solar activity, pose significant hazards to satellites, electrical power distribution systems, radio communications, navigation, and geophysical surveys. Strong storms can expose astronauts and crews of high-flying aircraft to dangerous levels of radiation. Economic losses from recent geomagnetic storms have run into hundreds of millions of dollars. With...
Authors
Arthur W. Green, William M. Brown
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