Publications

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The

According to the regulatory building codes in the United States (e.g., 2010 California Building Code), at least two horizontal ground motion components are required for three-dimensional (3D) response history analysis (RHA) of building structures. For sites within 5 km of an active fault, these records should be rotated to fault-normal/fault-parallel (FN/FP) directions, and two RHAs...

The first volcanic gas studies in Hawai‘i, beginning in 1912, established that volatile emissions from Kīlauea Volcano contained mostly water vapor, in addition to carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. This straightforward discovery overturned a popular volatile theory of the day and, in the same action, helped affirm Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr.’s, vision of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)...

In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after...

We evaluate a new depth-averaged mathematical model that is designed to simulate all stages of debris-flow motion, from initiation to deposition. A companion paper shows how the model’s five governing equations describe simultaneous evolution of flow thickness, solid volume fraction, basal pore-fluid pressure, and two components of flow momentum. Each equation contains a source term that

A suite of eight rocks analyzed by the Curiosity Rover while it was stopped at the Rocknest sand ripple shows the greatest chemical divergence of any potentially sedimentary rocks analyzed in the early part of the mission. Relative to average Martian soil and to the stratigraphically lower units encountered as part of the Yellowknife Bay formation, these rocks are significantly depleted...

Aseismic or slow slip events have been observed in many subduction zones, but whether they affect the occurrence of earthquakes or result from stress changes caused by nearby events is unclear. In an area lacking direct geodetic observations, inferences can be made from seismological studies of co-seismic slip, associated stress changes and the spatiotemporal nature of aftershocks. These

The Chilean tsunami of 22 May 1960 reamed out a breach and built up a fan as it flowed across a sparsely inhabited beach-ridge plain near Maullín, midway along the length of the tsunami source. Eyewitnesses to the flooding, interviewed mainly in 1988 and 1989, identified levels that the tsunami had reached on high ground, trees, and build- ings. The maximum levels fell, from about 10 m...

We estimate the arms‐stress drop, Graphic, (Hanks, 1979) using acceleration time records of 59 earthquakes from two earthquake sequences in eastern Honshu, Japan. These acceleration‐based static stress drops compare well to stress drops calculated for the same events by Baltay et al. (2011) using an empirical Green’s function (eGf) approach. This agreement supports the assumption that...

1] The Kanto seismic corridor surrounding Tokyo has hosted four to five M ≥ 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years. Immediately after the Tohoku earthquake, the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10-fold, while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half. The seismicity rate decayed for 6–12 months, after which it steadied at three times the pre-Tohoku rate. The seismicity rate...

Mazzotti and Adams (2004) estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern Washington and southern British Columbia increases the probability of a great Cascadia earthquake by 30–100 times relative to the probability during the ∼58 weeks between slip events. Because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at ∼0.03% per week, their...

We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day...