HayWired Scenario
Science Center Objects
The HayWired scenario depicts a scientifically realistic earthquake sequence, and its cascading impacts, that all starts with a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The scenario emphasizes understanding impacts from modern society's lifeline interdependencies and reliance on the Internet.
Fires and the HayWired Scenario
(Public domain.)
The HayWired project is the earthquake scenario designed to model and study impacts on the San Francisco Bay area from a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The study builds upon understanding of the last large earthquake to occur on the Hayward Fault in 1868, but with the realization that modern urban infrastructures are made vulnerable by multiple layers of interdependencies between lifelines, with a major reliance on the Internet. This scenario also considers impacts from a sequence of aftershocks following the main earthquake, an aspect often overlooked but an important component of the physical and emotional damage associated with large earthquakes extending into the days and months following.
The image in the right is the USGS ShakeMap showing intensity of shaking resulting from the HayWired earthquake scenario.
The HayWired scenario is the fourth disaster scenario from the SAFRR Project and is supported by the USGS Natural Hazards and Climate and Land Change Science Mission Areas.
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—We Can Outsmart Disaster, USGS Fact Sheet 2018-3016.
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Year Published: 2018The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and...
Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Wein, Anne M.; Cox, Dale A.; Porter, Keith A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, DrewAttribution: Earthquake Science CenterView CitationHudnut, K.W., Wein, A.M., Cox, D.A., Porter, K.A., Johnson, L.A., Perry, S.C., Bruce, J.L., and LaPointe, D., 2018, The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2018–3016, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20183016.
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better...
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of...
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or...
Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.-
Date published: April 12, 2018HayWired aftershock (M> 5) ShakeMaps
The maps in this archive display estimated intensities and ground motions for the earthquake scenarios - events on faults that have ruptured in the past or have a likelihood of rupturing in the future. These maps are typically used for emergency response exercises and planning as well as for understanding the potential consequences of future large earthquakes.
Attribution: Natural Hazards
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Date published: April 12, 2018The HayWired Scenario: An Urban Earthquake in a Connected World - A Geonarrative
What might it be like the next time the Hayward Fault has a large earthquake? A geonarrative and related imagery examines a hypothetical earthquake, the magnitude 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario.”
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: April 12, 2018What to Expect in a Big Urban Earthquake - A Geonarrative
How do we get ready for big earthquakes in populated areas? An important first step is to learn what a big earthquake could be like. These pages summarize the main patterns — the earthquake effects that show up again and again. Here, urban is shorthand for “cities, towns, and suburbs”.
Attribution: Natural Hazards, Science Application for Risk Reduction -
Date published: May 26, 2017Data from Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazards for a M7.0 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault
The seismic-landslide probability map covers the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, and Sonoma. The slope failures are triggered by a hypothetical earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.0 occurring on April 18, 2018, at 4:18 p.m. on the Hayward Fault in the east bay part of California’s San Francisco Bay region.
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: April 18, 2017
Liquefaction potential as a result of HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock (April 18, 2018) shaking in Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, San Francisco Bay area, California
These data are a geospatial representation of liquefaction potential for the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. These data are the product of an analysis that created a detailed liquefaction probability map covering the northern Santa Clara County and western Alameda County...
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: April 17, 2017
Point locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, California
These maps show the potential of widespread slope failures, in terms of landslide probabilities and displacement, triggered by a M7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the 10-county area surrounding the San Francisco Bay region, California.
Attribution: Natural Hazards
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Date published: March 23, 2018The HayWired Scenario: An Urban Earthquake in a Connected World - A Geonarrative
What might it be like the next time the Hayward Fault has a large earthquake? A geonarrative and related imagery examines a hypothetical earthquake, the magnitude 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario.
Attribution: Natural Hazards, Science Application for Risk Reduction
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Date published: April 11, 2018Digital database of recently active traces of the Hayward Fault, California
This map shows the location of and evidence for recent movement on active fault traces within the Hayward Fault Zone, California.
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: April 11, 2018HayWired aftershock (M> 5) ShakeMaps
The maps in this archive display estimated intensities and ground motions for the largest earthquakes in the HayWired aftershock sequence. The aftershock sequence follows the HayWired M7.0 mainshock that is imagined to occur on April 18, 2018 along the Hayward Fault.These maps have been used in analyses of the HayWired scenario.
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: April 11, 2018Ground motion and regional information of the M 7.0 mainshock
The HayWired scenario depicts a hypothetical M7.0 earthquake on California’s Hayward Fault. This site includes an interactive map showing fault traces and ShakeMap contours, information on the tectonic setting of the Hayward Fault and fault rupture history; and a USGS ShakeMap, which provides ground motion information for the HayWired scenario mainshock.
Attribution: Natural Hazards -
Date published: May 26, 2017
Data from Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazards for a M7.0 Scenario Earthquake on the Hayward Fault
The seismic-landslide probability map covers the counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Solano, and Sonoma. The slope failures are triggered by a hypothetical earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.0 occurring on April 18, 2018, at 4:18 p.m. on the Hayward Fault in the east bay part of California’s San Francisco Bay region.
Attribution: Natural Hazards
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region.
Get Ready! Analyses of impacts related to the HayWired earthquake scenario include estimates for potential fatalities, injuries, water outages, fires, and other major disruptions. These could potentially include: 800 deaths, 16,000 nonfatal injuries, property and direct business interruption losses of more than $82 billion from from shaking alone. The USGS and its partners are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake. Learn more: usgs.gov/haywired
Scenario shows the ground shaking for a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault with the epicenter in Oakland, California. Visit M7.0 Earthquake Scenarios - Hayward Fault for detailed perspective views.
Animation showing the intensity of groundshaking across the San Francisco Bay region during a hypothetical M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault with the epicenter in San Pablo Bay. Visit M7.0 Earthquake Scenarios - Hayward Fault for detailed perspective views.
Animation showing the intensity of groundshaking across the San Francisco Bay region during a hypothetical M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault with the epicenter in Fremont. Visit M7.0 Earthquake Scenarios - Hayward Fault for detailed perspective views.
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Date published: April 18, 2018USGS Rolls Out Groundbreaking Earthquake Study: The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
USGS collaborates with key academic, state, local, and industry partners to provide a new look at what could happen during a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Attribution: Natural Hazards, Earthquake Hazards
