Research Ecologist Brian Miller uses a process called “climate change scenario planning” to help managers think about the many ways climate change could impact the resources under their care, allowing them to create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
Deep Dive: Climate Change Scenario Planning
Active
By Climate Adaptation Science Centers
May 15, 2023
Climate Futures Toolbox
The North Central CASC and the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program developed an R-code workflow that allows users to access downscaled climate data to support climate scenario planning activities.
The North Central CASC and the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program developed an R-code workflow that allows users to access downscaled climate data to support climate scenario planning activities.
A Road Map to Follow
The USGS works with the National Park Service to conduct scenario planning exercises to preserve some of the Nation’s most important landscapes and monuments.
The USGS works with the National Park Service to conduct scenario planning exercises to preserve some of the Nation’s most important landscapes and monuments.
Meet a USGS Climate Champion!
USGS Research Ecologist Brian Miller leads climate change scenario planning workshops for natural resource managers, helping them create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
USGS Research Ecologist Brian Miller leads climate change scenario planning workshops for natural resource managers, helping them create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
New Publication!
CASC scientists and their National Park Service and university colleagues discuss the utility of scenario planning and structured decision making, and suggest a new framework combining the two approaches.
CASC scientists and their National Park Service and university colleagues discuss the utility of scenario planning and structured decision making, and suggest a new framework combining the two approaches.
Scenario planning is a powerful tool to help decision makers plan for an uncertain future. Through this process, people consider different ways the climate could change and explore how these changes would affect resources important to them. USGS scientists work with natural and cultural resource managers to use climate change scenario planning to prepare for a wide range of possible futures.
What Will the Future Look Like?
Climate change affects each place, ecosystem, and species differently. This creates challenges for people tasked with caring for places (like parks or farms) that they know are changing, where the future won’t look like the past. They may be asking themselves questions like, “Is this drought here to stay, should I plant different crops?” or “Is this park visitor center going to be safe from sea level rise?”
Yet predicting the future is hard! And people are bad at it! (Aren’t we supposed to have flying cars by now?) Climate models provide lots of information about potential shifts in temperature and rainfall. But those shifts depend on unpredictable choices society will make about greenhouse gas emissions. And large-scale climate trends driven by emissions can be obscured by normal year-to-year and place-to-place variation in weather. Different climate models also produce different results because each has a unique way of representing the processes that drive local, regional, and global climates.
These factors make it challenging to predict the precise timing and nature of climate change. Although there's broad agreement among climate models that global temperatures will continue to rise, we don't know exactly how much temperatures will change in each individual place. And in some cases, models don't agree on whether a place might get more rainfall or less. So how can we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty?
Answer: Plan for multiple scenarios.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Alt Text: A man looks at a bulletin board with a picture of a forest on it and arrows pointing to different possible outcomes. The first arrow points to a picture of the forest on fire, and is followed by an arrow pointing to an image that shows the forest has regrown with different types of trees. The second arrow points to a picture of the forest flooded, which is followed by an arrow pointing to an image that shows the forest has turned into a wetland. The third arrow points to a picture of the forest experiencing a drought, which is followed by an arrow pointing to an image showing that the forest has turned into a grassland.
Building Climate Scenarios
Climate change scenario planning is a powerful tool to help decision makers plan for an uncertain future. In this process, people consider the different ways climate change could manifest and explore the effects of multiple potential future conditions on important resources.
This process begins by assembling a team of resource managers, decision makers, and supporting experts. Resource managers and decision makers describe the uncertainties about the resources they need to plan for, the tools they have for managing those resources, and their goals regarding those resources.
The experts use this information to select several climate model outputs for the team to explore further.
They select models whose estimated future climate conditions are likely to result in scenarios that are:
-
Plausible, given what we know about climate and atmospheric science
-
Relevant to resources the users care about. The experts focus on the aspects of climate that targeted resources are most sensitive to. For example, historical buildings may be damaged by extreme storms, while prairies may need spring rains to thrive. So, experts would examine climate model outputs for these climate conditions instead of more generic climate metrics like only looking at annual rainfall and average temperature.
-
Divergent, so the models give different results from one another. For example, they may select one model that predicts reduced spring rainfall and moderate increase in extreme storm frequency, and another with wetter springs and stronger increase in storm frequency and strength.
-
Challenging to entrenched assumptions about the future and best management strategies. Experts may choose a model that would lead to a dramatic shift in the status quo – like if it were to get so dry that a grassland might turn into a desert.
These climate model outputs are called climate futures.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
These warming stripes show the average yearly maximum temperatures from 1950-2050 predicted by four different climate models for Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota. Stripe color ranges from dark blue, representing the coldest (average yearly max) temperatures (12°C or 54°F), to red, representing the warmest (average yearly max) temperatures (21°C or 70°F).
The team then uses available science and expert knowledge to discuss how each of these climate futures could affect the focal lands and resources. For each climate futures, they ask questions like: Would key plants and animals survive under these conditions? Would fires or floods be more or less frequent? How would infrastructure be threatened by sea-level rise, coastal erosion, or thawing permafrost? These discussions build climate-resource scenarios – descriptions of how each climate future could impact natural and cultural resources. The most useful climate-resource scenarios are plausible, relevant, divergent, challenging, and oftentimes memorable.
As a final step, managers and decision makers think about what they would need to do if a given climate scenario occurred. What plans or investments would they need to make to manage their resources under these circumstances? How do they need to modify their planned actions or even revisit their goals? They then analyze and prioritize their available management options. This can help identify actions that might work across a range of futures (“no brainers”) versus those that might have little success across any (“no gainers”).
At the end of this process, users will have a suite of strategies to support their priorities under a wide range of possible conditions.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
USGS Climate Experts Help People Build and Understand Climate Scenarios
Researchers with the USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) use climate model outputs to help resource managers understand the possible range of climate futures in their area. They lead managers through scenario planning exercises, often in multi-day workshops, considering different future climate conditions. They ask questions like “If your national park became hotter and drier, versus warmer and wetter, what would you need to do to successfully manage your resources under these different futures?” They engage subject-matter experts to provide the best science for answering these questions. Through these discussions, they help managers prepare an assortment of options for responding to a rapidly changing climate.
Resources
Interested in applying climate scenario planning to your natural resources decision-making? Check out these resources to get you started!
Check out a selection of CASC projects where researchers help managers incorporate scenario planning into climate adaptation decision making!
Webinar: Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
View this webinar to learn how scientists use scenario planning as a tool to prepare for a changing climate.
Modeling to Support Grazing Management Planning in U.S. National Parks: A Case Study from Dinosaur National Monument
The National Park Service is responsible for managing livestock grazing on 94 locations across the country and several grazing management planning efforts for this work are underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management plans to address potential future effects of climate change on related resources and practices. This is the second phase of a project that is...
Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks
The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing livestock grazing in 94 units, and several park grazing management planning efforts are currently underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management practices to address potential future effects of management practices and climate change. The goal of this project is to outline the steps required for...
Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource...
Informing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning, in which climate models are used to identify different plausible climate conditions, known as “scenarios”, for a particular area. In a previous...
Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly...
Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this...
Climate Science Champions Season 3: Brian Miller, Research Ecologist
Research Ecologist Brian Miller uses a process called “climate change scenario planning” to help managers think about the many ways climate change could impact the resources under their care, allowing them to create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
linkIt seems the effects of climate change were all too clear in 2021. Yet, we know more change is expected. When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.
Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
linkIt seems the effects of climate change were all too clear in 2021. Yet, we know more change is expected. When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.
Scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument
Miller presenting historical climate information during a scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument.
Miller presenting historical climate information during a scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument.
Badlands National Park NPS Scenario Planning Project
The project team for the Badlands National Park scenario planning effort included scientists from NPS, USGS, Wildlife Conservation Society, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The project team for the Badlands National Park scenario planning effort included scientists from NPS, USGS, Wildlife Conservation Society, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Scenario planning effort
Part of the project team for a scenario planning effort with Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site.
Part of the project team for a scenario planning effort with Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site.
Stay up to date on new CASC scenario planning activities and tools through our bi-weekly newsletter, Climate Adaptation Insights!
Project Spotlight: Tool Developed by the North Central CASC Helps National Parks Plan for Climate Change
The National Park Service Climate Change Response Program helps parks plan for and adapt to climate change, but they are often slowed by challenges wrangling large climate data sets. To solve this problem, the North Central CASC partnered with the National Park Service to create the Climate Futures Toolbox, a user-friendly software program designed to help "take the pain out of climate data".
Scenario planning is a powerful tool to help decision makers plan for an uncertain future. Through this process, people consider different ways the climate could change and explore how these changes would affect resources important to them. USGS scientists work with natural and cultural resource managers to use climate change scenario planning to prepare for a wide range of possible futures.
What Will the Future Look Like?
Climate change affects each place, ecosystem, and species differently. This creates challenges for people tasked with caring for places (like parks or farms) that they know are changing, where the future won’t look like the past. They may be asking themselves questions like, “Is this drought here to stay, should I plant different crops?” or “Is this park visitor center going to be safe from sea level rise?”
Yet predicting the future is hard! And people are bad at it! (Aren’t we supposed to have flying cars by now?) Climate models provide lots of information about potential shifts in temperature and rainfall. But those shifts depend on unpredictable choices society will make about greenhouse gas emissions. And large-scale climate trends driven by emissions can be obscured by normal year-to-year and place-to-place variation in weather. Different climate models also produce different results because each has a unique way of representing the processes that drive local, regional, and global climates.
These factors make it challenging to predict the precise timing and nature of climate change. Although there's broad agreement among climate models that global temperatures will continue to rise, we don't know exactly how much temperatures will change in each individual place. And in some cases, models don't agree on whether a place might get more rainfall or less. So how can we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty?
Answer: Plan for multiple scenarios.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Alt Text: A man looks at a bulletin board with a picture of a forest on it and arrows pointing to different possible outcomes. The first arrow points to a picture of the forest on fire, and is followed by an arrow pointing to an image that shows the forest has regrown with different types of trees. The second arrow points to a picture of the forest flooded, which is followed by an arrow pointing to an image that shows the forest has turned into a wetland. The third arrow points to a picture of the forest experiencing a drought, which is followed by an arrow pointing to an image showing that the forest has turned into a grassland.
Building Climate Scenarios
Climate change scenario planning is a powerful tool to help decision makers plan for an uncertain future. In this process, people consider the different ways climate change could manifest and explore the effects of multiple potential future conditions on important resources.
This process begins by assembling a team of resource managers, decision makers, and supporting experts. Resource managers and decision makers describe the uncertainties about the resources they need to plan for, the tools they have for managing those resources, and their goals regarding those resources.
The experts use this information to select several climate model outputs for the team to explore further.
They select models whose estimated future climate conditions are likely to result in scenarios that are:
-
Plausible, given what we know about climate and atmospheric science
-
Relevant to resources the users care about. The experts focus on the aspects of climate that targeted resources are most sensitive to. For example, historical buildings may be damaged by extreme storms, while prairies may need spring rains to thrive. So, experts would examine climate model outputs for these climate conditions instead of more generic climate metrics like only looking at annual rainfall and average temperature.
-
Divergent, so the models give different results from one another. For example, they may select one model that predicts reduced spring rainfall and moderate increase in extreme storm frequency, and another with wetter springs and stronger increase in storm frequency and strength.
-
Challenging to entrenched assumptions about the future and best management strategies. Experts may choose a model that would lead to a dramatic shift in the status quo – like if it were to get so dry that a grassland might turn into a desert.
These climate model outputs are called climate futures.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
These warming stripes show the average yearly maximum temperatures from 1950-2050 predicted by four different climate models for Wind Cave National Park, South Dakota. Stripe color ranges from dark blue, representing the coldest (average yearly max) temperatures (12°C or 54°F), to red, representing the warmest (average yearly max) temperatures (21°C or 70°F).
The team then uses available science and expert knowledge to discuss how each of these climate futures could affect the focal lands and resources. For each climate futures, they ask questions like: Would key plants and animals survive under these conditions? Would fires or floods be more or less frequent? How would infrastructure be threatened by sea-level rise, coastal erosion, or thawing permafrost? These discussions build climate-resource scenarios – descriptions of how each climate future could impact natural and cultural resources. The most useful climate-resource scenarios are plausible, relevant, divergent, challenging, and oftentimes memorable.
As a final step, managers and decision makers think about what they would need to do if a given climate scenario occurred. What plans or investments would they need to make to manage their resources under these circumstances? How do they need to modify their planned actions or even revisit their goals? They then analyze and prioritize their available management options. This can help identify actions that might work across a range of futures (“no brainers”) versus those that might have little success across any (“no gainers”).
At the end of this process, users will have a suite of strategies to support their priorities under a wide range of possible conditions.
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
Sources/Usage: Some content may have restrictions. View Media Details
USGS Climate Experts Help People Build and Understand Climate Scenarios
Researchers with the USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) use climate model outputs to help resource managers understand the possible range of climate futures in their area. They lead managers through scenario planning exercises, often in multi-day workshops, considering different future climate conditions. They ask questions like “If your national park became hotter and drier, versus warmer and wetter, what would you need to do to successfully manage your resources under these different futures?” They engage subject-matter experts to provide the best science for answering these questions. Through these discussions, they help managers prepare an assortment of options for responding to a rapidly changing climate.
Resources
Interested in applying climate scenario planning to your natural resources decision-making? Check out these resources to get you started!
Check out a selection of CASC projects where researchers help managers incorporate scenario planning into climate adaptation decision making!
Webinar: Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
View this webinar to learn how scientists use scenario planning as a tool to prepare for a changing climate.
Modeling to Support Grazing Management Planning in U.S. National Parks: A Case Study from Dinosaur National Monument
The National Park Service is responsible for managing livestock grazing on 94 locations across the country and several grazing management planning efforts for this work are underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management plans to address potential future effects of climate change on related resources and practices. This is the second phase of a project that is...
Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks
The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for managing livestock grazing in 94 units, and several park grazing management planning efforts are currently underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management practices to address potential future effects of management practices and climate change. The goal of this project is to outline the steps required for...
Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource...
Informing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in National Parks
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning, in which climate models are used to identify different plausible climate conditions, known as “scenarios”, for a particular area. In a previous...
Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly...
Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains
One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this...
Climate Science Champions Season 3: Brian Miller, Research Ecologist
Research Ecologist Brian Miller uses a process called “climate change scenario planning” to help managers think about the many ways climate change could impact the resources under their care, allowing them to create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
Research Ecologist Brian Miller uses a process called “climate change scenario planning” to help managers think about the many ways climate change could impact the resources under their care, allowing them to create robust strategies ready for anything the future may bring.
Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
linkIt seems the effects of climate change were all too clear in 2021. Yet, we know more change is expected. When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.
Developing divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning
linkIt seems the effects of climate change were all too clear in 2021. Yet, we know more change is expected. When trying to adapt to a changing climate, with all the inherent uncertainties about how the future may play out, resource managers often turn to scenario planning as a tool.
Scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument
Miller presenting historical climate information during a scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument.
Miller presenting historical climate information during a scenario planning workshop with Devils Tower National Monument.
Badlands National Park NPS Scenario Planning Project
The project team for the Badlands National Park scenario planning effort included scientists from NPS, USGS, Wildlife Conservation Society, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The project team for the Badlands National Park scenario planning effort included scientists from NPS, USGS, Wildlife Conservation Society, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Scenario planning effort
Part of the project team for a scenario planning effort with Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site.
Part of the project team for a scenario planning effort with Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site.
Stay up to date on new CASC scenario planning activities and tools through our bi-weekly newsletter, Climate Adaptation Insights!
Project Spotlight: Tool Developed by the North Central CASC Helps National Parks Plan for Climate Change
The National Park Service Climate Change Response Program helps parks plan for and adapt to climate change, but they are often slowed by challenges wrangling large climate data sets. To solve this problem, the North Central CASC partnered with the National Park Service to create the Climate Futures Toolbox, a user-friendly software program designed to help "take the pain out of climate data".