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North Central

The North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC) fosters applied research in support of Tribal, federal, state, and local natural resource management across the north central U.S. Their research focuses on habitat loss, wildfires, water availability, invasive species, wildlife phenology, and disease in sagebrush, freshwater, grassland, and high elevation ecosystems.

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Soil-climate for Managing Sagebrush Ecosystems

Soil-climate describes the temperature and moisture conditions important for plant growth and function. Soil condition patterns determine which vegetation is most abundant, thus controlling which habitats, invasive species, fuels, and economic activities are present in a region. Here, we use a model to simulate the vertical movement of water in a soil profile to provide insights into landscape...
Soil-climate for Managing Sagebrush Ecosystems

Soil-climate for Managing Sagebrush Ecosystems

Soil-climate describes the temperature and moisture conditions important for plant growth and function. Soil condition patterns determine which vegetation is most abundant, thus controlling which habitats, invasive species, fuels, and economic activities are present in a region. Here, we use a model to simulate the vertical movement of water in a soil profile to provide insights into landscape...
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Mapping Grassland Bird Community Distribution under a Changing Landscape

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, and University of Arizona are studying the distribution of grassland bird communities across the western Great Plains to anticipate how species distributions may respond to a changing landscape.
Mapping Grassland Bird Community Distribution under a Changing Landscape

Mapping Grassland Bird Community Distribution under a Changing Landscape

Researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service, and University of Arizona are studying the distribution of grassland bird communities across the western Great Plains to anticipate how species distributions may respond to a changing landscape.
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A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate

Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing...
A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate

A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate

Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic
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Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie

Invasions of exotic annual grasses (EAGs like cheatgrass have caused major losses of native shrubs and grasses in western U.S. rangelands. They also decrease the productivity and carbon storage in these ecosystems, which is expected to create dryer soils that may cause further losses in plant productivity. This cycle is the hallmark of desertification – or, fertile lands turning into...
Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie

Assessing the Impacts of Rangeland Restoration on Carbon Sequestration and Co-Benefits for Drought Resilience in the Sagebrush Steppe and Mixed Grass Prairie

Invasions of exotic annual grasses (EAGs like cheatgrass have caused major losses of native shrubs and grasses in western U.S. rangelands. They also decrease the productivity and carbon storage in these ecosystems, which is expected to create dryer soils that may cause further losses in plant productivity. This cycle is the hallmark of desertification – or, fertile lands turning into deserts.
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Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems

Mountain ecosystems are prioritized by the North Central CASC due to the provided water resources, recreation opportunities, and endemic biodiversity. Mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change due to elevation-dependent warming, loss of snowpack, reduction in physical area at higher elevations, and general sensitivity of alpine species to climate. Current climate adaptation...
Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems

Climate Adaptation in North Central Mountain Ecosystems

Mountain ecosystems are prioritized by the North Central CASC due to the provided water resources, recreation opportunities, and endemic biodiversity. Mountain ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change due to elevation-dependent warming, loss of snowpack, reduction in physical area at higher elevations, and general sensitivity of alpine species to climate. Current climate adaptation strategies
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Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie

Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may...
Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie

Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie

Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift
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Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.

Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be...
Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.

Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.

Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be heavily
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Interpreting Global Change Impacts on Southern Rocky Mountain Alpine and Subalpine Ecosystems for Effective Resource Management

Project Overview Human fossil fuel use and agricultural practices have increased atmospheric nitrogen deposits (e.g., through snow and rain) to mountain ecosystems. This, along with increasing measurable climate warming is affecting soil and water acidity and altering nutrient balances. In this project, North Central CASC-supported researchers will analyze decades of unexplored data...
Interpreting Global Change Impacts on Southern Rocky Mountain Alpine and Subalpine Ecosystems for Effective Resource Management

Interpreting Global Change Impacts on Southern Rocky Mountain Alpine and Subalpine Ecosystems for Effective Resource Management

Project Overview Human fossil fuel use and agricultural practices have increased atmospheric nitrogen deposits (e.g., through snow and rain) to mountain ecosystems. This, along with increasing measurable climate warming is affecting soil and water acidity and altering nutrient balances. In this project, North Central CASC-supported researchers will analyze decades of unexplored data, including
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Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity

In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming...
Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity

Managing Ecological Transformation to Enhance Carbon Storage and Biodiversity

In the North Central region, invasive species and climate change are intricately linked to changing fire regimes, and together, these drivers can have pronounced effects on ecosystems. When fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape can transform into a new type of ecosystem, such as a forest becoming a
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Short Science Syntheses and NEPA Analyses for Climate-Informed Land Management Decisions in Sagebrush Rangelands

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) manages the largest area of public lands in the United States. Decision-making on BLM lands is complex because managers have to balance diverse, sometimes conflicting, resources, uses, and values. Land managers are more likely to achieve long-term land management goals and balance multiple desired uses and values across public landscapes when their...
Short Science Syntheses and NEPA Analyses for Climate-Informed Land Management Decisions in Sagebrush Rangelands

Short Science Syntheses and NEPA Analyses for Climate-Informed Land Management Decisions in Sagebrush Rangelands

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) manages the largest area of public lands in the United States. Decision-making on BLM lands is complex because managers have to balance diverse, sometimes conflicting, resources, uses, and values. Land managers are more likely to achieve long-term land management goals and balance multiple desired uses and values across public landscapes when their decisions are
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Snowpack Futures: Developing Management Tools to Address Snow as a Water Resource and Hazard

Project Overview Climate change has reduced the amount of water stored in snowpacks and altered avalanche risks in mountainous areas of western North America. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop tools for predicting and managing future water resources and future avalanche patterns, particularly in areas of major transportation corridors and important...
Snowpack Futures: Developing Management Tools to Address Snow as a Water Resource and Hazard

Snowpack Futures: Developing Management Tools to Address Snow as a Water Resource and Hazard

Project Overview Climate change has reduced the amount of water stored in snowpacks and altered avalanche risks in mountainous areas of western North America. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop tools for predicting and managing future water resources and future avalanche patterns, particularly in areas of major transportation corridors and important habitats
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Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is an iconic landscape with national parks, iconic species like grizzly bears and elk, and over 11,500 square miles of forest. While fires are a natural part of the GYA, climate change and land management legacies are increasing the frequency and size of severe fires. Climate change interacts with these fires to shift conifer forests to non-forested...
Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is an iconic landscape with national parks, iconic species like grizzly bears and elk, and over 11,500 square miles of forest. While fires are a natural part of the GYA, climate change and land management legacies are increasing the frequency and size of severe fires. Climate change interacts with these fires to shift conifer forests to non-forested grassland and
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