Pacific Islands

Project Overview Climate change is expected to change rainfall patterns on pacific islands like Hawaiʻi, but current global models lack the resolution to accurately predict local rainfall. Researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project will use machine learning models and historical data to improve rainfall predictions and create detailed rainfall maps for Hawaiʻi that can be...

Project Overview Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) is a critical nesting site for seabirds in the central Pacific Ocean, with ecosystems that are regularly impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project aim to understand how past ENSO-driven climate variability and human activities have affected vegetation and...

Project Overview As climate change intensifies, accurately forecasting regional flood, drought, and heat risks is critical for planning, but current global climate models lack the resolution needed for useful local predictions. Researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project will use generative artificial intelligence (AI) to create high-resolution precipitation maps and flood...

Project Overview Restoring grass-dominated landscapes into resilient forested ecosystems is a key strategy for addressing the growing risk of wildfire Hawaiʻi. However, conventional afforestation efforts typically require regular maintenance due to the persistent invasion of grasses in planted areas. In collaboration with Native Hawaiian Organizations, researchers supported by this...

Project Overview Sea-level rise, stronger storms, and coral reef bleaching events occurring with climate change threaten infrastructure, livelihoods, and cultural practices in Hawai'i. Researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project will integrate Indigenous Knowledge and scientific research to co-produce climate adaptation strategies and conservation guidance for the...

Project Overview Climate change is altering the timing of natural seasonal events (phenology). This is manifesting in many ways including altering patterns of bird migration between Molokaʻi and southcentral Alaska. Researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project will combine Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) and conventional science to track these phenological shifts...

Project Overview Guam’s forests are vital to the ecosystem and local communities, but they face threats from wildfires, water quality, and invasive species, among others. To restore these ecosystems, researchers supported by this Pacific Islands CASC project will research the roles of native plants by identifying their “functional traits,” and using that knowledge to select species for...

Invasive species have had devastating effects on Pacific Island biodiversity, ecosystem services, food, infrastructure, culture, and public health. Meanwhile, climate change is expected to worsen droughts and wildfires, increase storm severity, and raise the temperature, acidity, and sea level, all of which exacerbate invasive species issues and complicate management. Invasive species...

Mosquito-borne disease is the biggest threat to Hawai‘i’s remaining native forest birds, of which more than half are threatened or endangered. Currently, disease-carrying mosquitoes are unable to move into colder high-elevation forests, but as the islands warm due to climate change, mosquitoes are steadily moving into the last native bird strongholds. Mosquito suppression efforts are...

Hawaiʻi is known as the “endangered species capital of the world,” an unwelcomed label brought on by more than a century of habitat destruction, invasive species spread, and pollinator and seed disperser declines. Hawaiʿi is home to 400 endangered plant species, most of which are found nowhere else in the world. Conservation managers have spent decades putting enormous effort into...

In Hawaiʻi, a large percentage of historically forested areas have been lost, driven in part by changes in land use, such as the conversion of forests into pastures for livestock. This transformation has not only resulted in widespread loss of native biodiversity and important ecosystem functions but has also increased the risk of fire on the landscape. Though targeted restoration...

Palau’s Jellyfish Lake, locally known as Ongeim’l Tketau (OTM), is an iconic tourism site and an important area of biodiversity. This landlocked marine lake is part of the Rock Island Southern Lagoon UNESCO World Heritage Site, representing an expression of Palauan national pride, and has brought in millions of dollars to the local Koror State economy. OTM is also home to the unique...