Publications
Educational Publications
Educational Publications
Selected publications about earthquakes In plain language.
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Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
Introduction This report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can
Authors
Chris Poland, Jonathan D. Bray, Laurie Johnson, Sissy Nikolaou, Ellen Rathje, Brian L. Sherrod
ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington ShakeAlert® and schools: Incorporating earthquake early warning in school districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington
The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in...
Authors
Rachel M. Adams, Holly Davies, Lori Peek, Meghan Mordy, Jennifer Tobin, Jolie Breeden, Sara K. McBride, Robert Michael deGroot
The impact of source time function complexity on stress drop estimates The impact of source time function complexity on stress drop estimates
Earthquake stress drop—a key parameter for describing the energetics of earthquake rupture—can be estimated in several different, but theoretically equivalent, ways. However, independent estimates for the same earthquakes sometimes differ significantly. We find that earthquake source complexity plays a significant role in why theoretically (for simple rupture models) equivalent methods...
Authors
James S. Neely, Sunyoung Park, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom
Uncertainty and spatial correlation in station measurements for mb magnitude estimation Uncertainty and spatial correlation in station measurements for mb magnitude estimation
The body‐wave magnitude () is a long‐standing network‐averaged, amplitude‐based magnitude used to estimate the magnitude of seismic sources from teleseismic observations. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) relies on in its global real‐time earthquake monitoring mission. Although waveform modeling‐based moment magnitudes are the modern standard to
Authors
William L. Yeck, Adam T. Ringler, David R. Shelly, Paul S. Earle, Harley M. Benz, David C. Wilson
Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023 Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system (Given et al., 2018). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized in California in October 2019. Over the next few years, public...
Authors
A.I. Lux, Deborah Smith, M. Böse, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Jessie K. Saunders, Minh Huynh, I. Stubailo, Jennifer R Andrews, G. Lotto, B. Crowell, S. Crane, R. M. Allen, Douglas D. Given, R. Hartog, T. Heaton, A. Husker, J. Marty, Leland O'Driscoll, Harold J. Tobin, Sara K. McBride, D. Toomey
Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions
While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide...
Authors
Leila Mizrahi, Irina Dallo, Nicholas van der Elst, Annemarie Christophersen, Ilaria Spassiani, Maximillian J. Werner, Pablo Iturrieta, Jose Bayona, Iunio Iervolino, Max Schneider, Morgan T. Page, Jiancang Zhuang, Marcus Herrmann, Andrew J. Michael, Guiseppe Falcone, Warner Marzocchi, David A. Rhoades, Matthew Gerstenberger, Laura Gulia, Danijel Schorlemmer, Julia Becker, Marta Han, Lorena Kuratle, Michele Marti, Stefan Wiemer
Shallow faulting and folding beneath south‐central Seattle, Washington State, from land‐based high‐resolution seismic‐reflection imaging Shallow faulting and folding beneath south‐central Seattle, Washington State, from land‐based high‐resolution seismic‐reflection imaging
The geologic framework of the Seattle fault zone (SFZ) has been extensively studied, but the structure and fault strand locations in the central portion of the fault zone through the city of Seattle have remained controversial. Much of what is known about the SFZ has come from light detection and ranging (lidar)‐topographic surveys and paleoseismic investigations of fault scarps...
Authors
William J. Stephenson, Jack K. Odum, Thomas L. Pratt
Telecommunications fiber for sensing earthquake aftershocks: Progress and hurdles Telecommunications fiber for sensing earthquake aftershocks: Progress and hurdles
Aftershocks offer valuable clues to earthquake behavior. The challenge: quickly deploying sensors to capture the early details of earthquake ruptures within the zone of aftershocks. Telecommunication fibers might be an answer, providing denser networks in otherwise difficult areas, potentially faster than traditional methods.
Authors
Andrew J. Barbour
Wave propagation in layered soil deposits Wave propagation in layered soil deposits
Recent advances in the general theory of viscoelastic waves and rays in layered media provide a rigorous mathematical framework for site-specific, soil-response models used for earthquake resistant design. The advances provide general closed-form anelastic solutions for the classic problems of the response of a stack of soil layers to S and P waves, ray theory for reflected and refracted...
Authors
Roger D. Borcherdt
The new self-anchored suspension (SAS) San Francisco Bay Bridge- Its response to a small earthquake The new self-anchored suspension (SAS) San Francisco Bay Bridge- Its response to a small earthquake
This paper presents a summary of previously published work (Celebi 2023) related to the new Self-Anchored Suspension (SAS) bridge that went into service within the last decade as a replacement for the older truss bridge spanning between Yerba Buena Island and Oakland, California, within the San Francisco Bay Area. During the October 19, 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, which occurred...
Authors
Mehmet Celebi
Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply
Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and...
Authors
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
Aftershock forecasting Aftershock forecasting
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple...
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Max Schneider, Nicholas van der Elst