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Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution

March 2, 2020

Predicting the decadal evolution of barrier island systems is important for coastal managers who propose restoration or preservation alternatives aimed at increasing the resiliency of the island and its associated habitats or communities. Existing numerical models for simulating morphologic changes typically include either long-term (for example, longshore transport under quiescent conditions) or short-term (for example, storm-driven waves) processes, with limited capacity to predict the decadal time-scale that is often most relevant in coastal planning. As part of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Assessment, a methodology was developed to predict barrier island evolution on decadal time scales. The developed modeling scheme uses multiple models including (1) Delft3D; (2) the empirical dune growth model (EDGR); and (3) XBeach that run sequentially to simulate evolution of barrier island geomorphology. The model framework was developed and applied to hindcast the evolution of Dauphin Island, Alabama, between 2004 and 2015, and was assessed using lidar data over the same period.

Publication Year 2020
Title Development of a modeling framework for predicting decadal barrier island evolution
DOI 10.3133/ofr20191139
Authors Rangley C. Mickey, Joseph W. Long, P. Soupy Dalyander, Robert L. Jenkins, David M. Thompson, Davina Passeri, Nathaniel G. Plant
Publication Type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Series Title Open-File Report
Series Number 2019-1139
Index ID ofr20191139
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center