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Publications

Explore scientific publications from the USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center.

Filter Total Items: 964

Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane Skill assessment of a total water level and coastal change forecast during the landfall of a hurricane

The Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast (TWL&CC Forecast) provides coastal communities with 6-day notice of potential elevated water levels and coastal change (i.e., dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) on sandy beaches that threatens safety, infrastructure, or resources. This continuously operating model provides hourly information for select regions along U.S. Gulf of...
Authors
Justin J. Birchler, Margaret L. Palmsten, Kara S. Doran, Sharifa Karwandyar, Joshua Michael Pardun, Elora M. Oades, Ryan P. Mulligan, Eli Sawyer Whitehead-Zimmers

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Big Cypress National Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a...
Authors
Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons, Jeffrey J. Danielson, William M. Cushing

Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract Re-evaluating Marine Isotope Stage 5a paleo-sea-level trends from across the Florida Keys reef tract

Unraveling how Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) fluctuated during past warm periods can improve our understanding of linkages between sea-level fluctuations, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet dynamics. Current estimates of GMSL for Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a and 5c — two warm intervals following the relatively well-documented MIS 5e — contain meters of uncertainty and fewer data due to...
Authors
Scarlette Hsia, Lauren T. Toth, Richard A. Mortlock, Charles Kerans

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at De Soto National Memorial, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a...
Authors
Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons

Signatures of wave erosion in Titan’s coasts Signatures of wave erosion in Titan’s coasts

The shorelines of Titan’s hydrocarbon seas trace flooded erosional landforms such as river valleys; however, it is unclear whether coastal erosion has subsequently altered these shorelines. Spacecraft observations and theoretical models suggest that wind may cause waves to form on Titan’s seas, potentially driving coastal erosion, but the observational evidence of waves is indirect, and...
Authors
Rose Elizabeth Palermo, Andrew D. Ashton, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, J. Taylor Perron

Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida Projected sea-level rise and high tide flooding at Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve, Florida

Introduction National parks and preserves in the South Atlantic-Gulf Region contain valuable coastal habitats such as tidal wetlands and mangrove forests, as well as irreplaceable historic buildings and archeological sites located in low-lying areas. These natural and cultural resources are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and escalating high tide flooding events. Through a...
Authors
Hana R. Thurman, Nicholas M. Enwright, Michael J. Osland, Davina L. Passeri, Richard H. Day, Bethanie M. Simons

Impact of Hurricane Irma on coral reef sediment redistribution at Looe Key Reef, Florida, USA Impact of Hurricane Irma on coral reef sediment redistribution at Looe Key Reef, Florida, USA

Understanding event-driven sediment transport in coral reef environments is essential to assessing impacts on reef species, habitats, restoration, and mitigation, yet a global knowledge gap remains due to limited quantitative studies. Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Lower Florida Keys with sustained 209 km h−1 winds and waves greater than 8 m on 10 September 2017, directly impacting...
Authors
Kimberly Yates, Zachery Fehr, Selena Anne-Marie Johnson, David G. Zawada

NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps NEWTS1.0: Numerical model of coastal Erosion by Waves and Transgressive Scarps

Models of rocky-coast erosion help us understand the physical phenomena that control coastal morphology and evolution, infer the processes shaping coasts in remote environments, and evaluate risk from natural hazards and future climate change. Existing models, however, are highly complex, are computationally expensive, and depend on many input parameters; this limits our ability to...
Authors
Rose Elizabeth Palermo, J. Taylor Perron, Jason M. Soderblom, Samuel P. D. Birch, Alexander G. Hayes, Andrew D. Ashton

Evaluation of in vitro treatments against the causative agent of Diadema antillarum scuticociliatosis (DaSc) Evaluation of in vitro treatments against the causative agent of Diadema antillarum scuticociliatosis (DaSc)

ABSTRACT: In the 1980s, a mass die-off of the long-spined sea urchin Diadema antillarum occurred on Florida and Caribbean coral reefs. D. antillarum populations largely did not recover, and in 2022, remaining populations experienced another mass mortality event. A ciliate most similar to Philaster apodigitiformis was identified as the causative agent of the 2022 event, which was named D
Authors
James S. Evans, Julie Jenice Voelschow, Isabella T. Ritchie, Mya Breitbart, Ian Hewson, Christina A. Kellogg

Implications for the resilience of modern coastal systems derived from mesoscale barrier dynamics at Fire Island, New York Implications for the resilience of modern coastal systems derived from mesoscale barrier dynamics at Fire Island, New York

Understanding the response of coastal barriers to future changes in rates of sea level rise, sediment availability, and storm intensity/frequency is essential for coastal planning, including socioeconomic and ecological management. Identifying drivers of past changes in barrier morphology, as well as barrier sensitivity to these forces, is necessary to accomplish this. Using remote...
Authors
Daniel J. Ciarletta, Jennifer L. Miselis, Julie Bernier, Arnell S. Forde

Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline Modern coral range expansion off southeast Florida falls short of Late Holocene baseline

As thermal stress and disease outbreaks decimate coral reefs throughout the tropics, there is growing evidence that higher latitude marine environments may provide crucial refuges for many at-risk, temperature-sensitive coral species. However, our understanding of how coral populations expand into new areas and sustain themselves over time is constrained by the limited scope of modern...
Authors
Peter Alexander Bacon Modys, Lauren T. Toth, William F. Precht, Anton E. Oleinik, Richard A. Mortlock

20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures 20th century warming in the lower Florida Keys was dominated by increasing winter temperatures

Long-lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral-based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea-surface...
Authors
Jennifer A. Flannery, Julie N. Richey, Lauren T. Toth, Madelyn Jean Mette
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