Fred Johnson, Ph.D.
Fred Johnson is a Scientist Emeritus at the USGS Wetland and Aquatic Research Center.
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, 2010
M.S., Wildlife and Fisheries Science, Texas A&M University, 1981
B.S., Wildlife Resources (Magna Cum Laude), West Virginia University, 1978
RESEARCH
Fred Johnson's principal interest is in the application of decision science to problems in natural resource management. Such applications require a multi-disciplinary approach to engage stakeholders in the decision-making process, to predict the responses of ecological systems to controlled and uncontrolled drivers, to elicit societal values regarding the consequences of management policy, and to develop monitoring programs to compare predicted and realized system behaviors. Johnson is particularly active in migratory bird management, with experience in problems of recreational and subsistence harvest, pest control, and habitat management. His scientific expertise is mostly in the areas of population ecology, statistical inference, dynamic systems modeling, and optimal decision making.
BACKGROUND
1989 – 2007: Wildlife Biologist (Management), Division of Migratory Bird Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Laurel, Maryland - responsible for evaluating, designing, and conducting resource monitoring and assessment programs to improve conservation programs; functioned as an agency representative on technical matters at state, national, and international meetings and conferences where migratory bird management and research were planned, coordinated, and reviewed.
1981-1989: Waterfowl Management Program Coordinator, Florida Game and Fresh Water Fish Commission, Okeechobee, Florida - responsible for planning, implementing, and overseeing waterfowl conservation activities for the State of Florida.
Science and Products
Adaptive Harvest Management of European Geese
Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges
A Structured Decision-Making Framework for Controlling, Monitoring, and Containment of Invasive Species through Trapping: An Application to the Argentine Black and White Tegu
Decision Analysis to Help Improve the Effectiveness of Invasive Plants Management
Structured Decision Making for Management of Warm-Water Habitat of Manatees
Global Change and Conservation Triage on National Wildlife Refuges
Optimal Control Strategies for Invasive Exotics in South Florida
Training in Structured Decision Making and Adaptive Management
Adaptive Regulation of Waterfowl Harvests Using Incomplete Survey Information
Adaptive Habitat Conservation for Flatwoods Salamanders
Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges
Adaptive Management for the Northern Bobwhite on the Babcock-Webb Wildlife Management Area
Data for analysis of open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management
Abundance, harvests, and harvest rates of selected duck species in the Atlantic Flyway, 1998-2017
Expert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida
Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty
Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection
Modeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions
Building adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change
Category count models for adaptive management of metapopulations: Case study of an imperiled salamander
Using integrated population models for insights into monitoring programs: An application using pink-footed geese
Incorporating uncertainty and risk into decision making to reduce nitrogen inputs to impaired waters
Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges
Harvest assessment for Taiga bean geese in the Central Management Unit: 2019
Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: Adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory
Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2019 progress summary
Multi-species duck harvesting using dynamic programming and multi-criteria decision analysis
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 13
Adaptive Harvest Management of European Geese
Pink-footed geese in Svalbard are a highly valued resource, but their increasing population causes conflicts with agricultural needs. USGS is devloping population models to help inform management of optimal harvest strategies.Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges
National Wildlife Refuges provide habitat for important fish and wildlife species and services that benefit coastal communities, like storm-surge protection. USGS scientists are helping coastal refuges plan for and adapt to sea-level rise.A Structured Decision-Making Framework for Controlling, Monitoring, and Containment of Invasive Species through Trapping: An Application to the Argentine Black and White Tegu
USGS is applying decision analysis to identify cost-effective methods for controlling invasive species like the Argentine black and white tegu.Decision Analysis to Help Improve the Effectiveness of Invasive Plants Management
Melaleuca is an invasive tree that is highly problematic in the Everglades, threatening native wildlife and habitat. USGS is helping to improve management strategies for the invasive plant.Structured Decision Making for Management of Warm-Water Habitat of Manatees
Manatees are tropical to subtropical in distribution and, with few exceptions, Florida is the northern limit of their natural winter range. The availability of warm-water habitat during winter is critical for the future persistence of the population in Florida.Global Change and Conservation Triage on National Wildlife Refuges
As custodians of ecological goods and services valued by society, coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have an especially important role to play in helping socio-ecological systems adapt to global-change processes.Optimal Control Strategies for Invasive Exotics in South Florida
The establishment and proliferation of exotic plants and animals can interfere with native ecological processes and can cause severe stress to sensitive ecosystems.Training in Structured Decision Making and Adaptive Management
The goal of this project is to educate resource professionals in the tools and techniques of structured decision making and adaptive management.Adaptive Regulation of Waterfowl Harvests Using Incomplete Survey Information
The 2011 (Draft) Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on Migratory Bird Hunting (EIS) offers four alternatives concerning the timing of the regulatory process for setting waterfowl hunting seasons. The no-change alternative involves a process by which most proposals for hunting seasons are developed in response to survey information that becomes available in early summer, such as breeding...Adaptive Habitat Conservation for Flatwoods Salamanders
USGS scientists investigate adaptive habitat conservation for Flatwoods salamanders.Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges
National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been seAdaptive Management for the Northern Bobwhite on the Babcock-Webb Wildlife Management Area
Based on field research conducted during 2002-2009, the bobwhite population on the Babcock-Webb Wildlife Management Area (WMA) in Southwest Florida is incapable of supporting desired levels of sport harvest. - Data
Data for analysis of open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management
This data release includes the data and computer code that we produced to fit two open-robust design removal models developed to simultaneously model population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class integrated population model (IPM) that used prior information for age-structured vital rAbundance, harvests, and harvest rates of selected duck species in the Atlantic Flyway, 1998-2017
These data provide estimates of abundance and measures of harvest pressure for five species (mallard, American green-winged teal, wood duck, ring-necked duck, and Common and Barrows' goldeneyes combined) of ducks breeding in the Atlantic Flyway of North America, 1998-2017. Abundance data are based on federal and state surveys encompassing southern Ontario, Quebec, and Maine south to Florida. HarveExpert opinions of demographic rates of Argentine black and white tegus in South Florida
We illustrate the utility of expert elicitation, explicit recognition of uncertainty, and the value of information for directing management and research efforts for invasive species, using tegu lizards (Salvator merianae) in southern Florida as a case study. We posited a post-birth pulse, matrix model, which was parameterized using a 3-point process to elicit estimates of tegu demographic rates f - Publications
Filter Total Items: 72
Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty
Population projection models are important tools for conservation and management. They are often used for population status assessments, for threat analyses, and to predict the consequences of conservation actions. Although conservation decisions should be informed by science, critical decisions are often made with very little information to support decision-making. Conversely, postponing decisionAuthorsJennifer F. Moore, Julien Martin, Hardin Waddle, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Jillian Elizabeth Fleming, Eve Bohnett, Thomas S.B. Akre, Donald J. Brown, Michael T. Jones, Jessica R. Meck, Kevin J. Oxenrider, Anthony Tur, Lisabeth L. Willey, Fred A JohnsonCape Romain partnership for coastal protection
This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specAuthorsMitchell J. Eaton, Fred A. Johnson, Jessica Mikels-Carrasco, David J. Case, Julien Martin, Bradley Stith, Simeon Yurek, Bradley Udell, Laura Villegas, Laura Taylor, Zulquarnain Haider, Hadi Charkhgard, Changhyun KwonModeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions
Self-organization is a process of establishing and reinforcing local structures through feedbacks between internal population dynamics and external factors. In reef-building systems, substrate is collectively engineered by individuals that also occupy it and compete for space. Reefs are constrained spatially by the physical environment, and by mortality, which reduces production but exposes substrAuthorsSimeon Yurek, Mitchell Eaton, Romain Lavaud, R. Wilson Laney, Don DeAngelis, William E. Pine, Megan K. LaPeyre, Julien Martin, Peter C Frederick, Hongqing Wang, Michael R. Lowe, Fred Johnson, Edward V. Camp, Rua MordecaiBuilding adaptive capacity in a coastal region experiencing global change
Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development, and climate change and other stressors are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient in the face of such disturbances. We sought to identify potential ways in which local conservation interests in the Lowcountry of South Carolina (USA) could participate in a sAuthorsFred A. Johnson, Mitchell J. Eaton, Jessica Mikels-Carrasco, David J. CaseCategory count models for adaptive management of metapopulations: Case study of an imperiled salamander
Managing spatially structured populations of imperiled species presents many challenges. Spatial structure can make it difficult to predict population responses to potential recovery activities, and learning through experimentation may not be advised if it could harm threatened populations. Adaptive management provides an appealing framework when experimentation is considered too risky or time conAuthorsKaty O'Donnell, Paul L. Fackler, Fred A. Johnson, Mathieu Bonneau, Julien Martin, Susan C. WallsUsing integrated population models for insights into monitoring programs: An application using pink-footed geese
Development of integrated population models (IPMs) assume the absence of systematic bias in monitoring programs, yet many potential sources of systematic bias in monitoring data exist (e.g., under-counts of abundance). By integrating multiple sources of data, we can assess whether various sources of monitoring data provide consistent inferences about changes in population size and, thus, whether mAuthorsFred Johnson, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Gitte H. Jensen, Kevin K. Clausen, Morten Frederiksen, Jesper MadsenIncorporating uncertainty and risk into decision making to reduce nitrogen inputs to impaired waters
This article aims to understand decision making under uncertainty and risk, with a case study on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Decision makers need to consider imperfect information on the cost and effectiveness of advanced nitrogen-removing on-site wastewater treatment systems as options to mitigate water quality degradation. Research included modeling nitrogen load reduction to impaired coastal waterAuthorsDavid M. Martin, Fred JohnsonClimate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges
National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been seAuthorsMitchell Eaton, Jennifer K. Costanza, Fred A Johnson, Julien Martin, Laura TaylorHarvest assessment for Taiga bean geese in the Central Management Unit: 2019
In 2016 the European Goose Management International Working Group (EGM IWG) began development of an Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program for Taiga Bean Geese. In 2017, the IWG adopted an Interim Harvest Strategy consisting of a constant harvest rate (on adults) of 3% for the Central Management Unit (MU) of Taiga Bean Geese. The interim strategy is intended to provide limited hunting opportuniAuthorsFred Johnson, Henning Heldbjerg, Mikko Alhainen, Jesper MadsenSpatial conservation planning under uncertainty: Adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory
Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meeAuthorsMitchell J. Eaton, Simeon Yurek, Zulqarnain Haider, Julien Martin, Fred Johnson, Bradley Udell, Hadi Charkhgard, Changhyun KwonAdaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese: 2019 progress summary
This report describes an Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program designed to maintain the Svalbard population of Pink-footed Geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their target level (60,000) by providing sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Specifically, this report provides recent monitoring and assessment results and their implications for the 2019 hunting season. In this report we provideAuthorsFred Johnson, Henning Heldbjerg, Kevin K. Clausen, Jesper MadsenMulti-species duck harvesting using dynamic programming and multi-criteria decision analysis
1.Multiple species are often exposed to a common hunting season, but harvest and population objectives may not be fully achieved if harvest potential varies among species and/or species abundances are not correlated through time. Our goal was to develop an approach for setting a common hunting season that would recognize heterogeneity in species productivity and would select annual hunting seasonsAuthorsFred Johnson, Guthrie S. Zimmerman, Min Huang, Paul I. Padding, Greg Balkcom, Michael Runge, Patrick K. Devers