Jennifer Thomas
Oceanographer, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Science and Products
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different plann
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are derived with the
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1e, October 2024)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planne
Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic
Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of c
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California
Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies. Modeling me
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?
Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Kai Alexander Parker, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Andrea O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Robert T. McCall, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Chris Massey
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical correcti
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the area of inte
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
Science and Products
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. Atlantic coast
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms for three States (Florida, Georgia, and Virginia) along the Atlantic coast of the United States. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different plann
Future coastal hazards along the U.S. North and South Carolina coasts
This product consists of several datasets that map future coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea level rise (SLR) and storms along the North and South Carolina coast. The SLR scenarios encompass a plausible range of projections by 2100 based on the best available, science and with enough resolution to support a suite of different planning horizons. The storm scenarios are derived with the
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 (ver. 1e, October 2024)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planne
Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic
Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya Kumari Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert T. McCall, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O'Neill, Kai Alexander Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W Swarzenski, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Killian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Jamie Jones
The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of c
Authors
Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. Erikson, Kai Alexander Parker, Kees Nederhoff, Kevin M. Befus, Manoochehr Shirzaei
A dataset of two-dimensional XBeach model set-up files for northern California
Here, we describe a dataset of two-dimensional (2D) XBeach model files that were developed for the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) in northern California as an update to an earlier CoSMoS implementation that relied on one-dimensional (1D) modeling methods. We provide details on the data and their application, such that they might be useful to end-users for other coastal studies. Modeling me
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Patrick L. Barnard
Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?
Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Kai Alexander Parker, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Andrea O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Robert T. McCall, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Chris Massey
Relative contributions of water-level components to extreme water levels along the US Southeast Atlantic Coast from a regional-scale water-level hindcast
A 38-year hindcast water level product is developed for the U.S. Southeast Atlantic coastline from the entrance of Chesapeake Bay to the southeast tip of Florida. The water level modelling framework utilized in this study combines a global-scale hydrodynamic model (Global Tide and Surge Model, GTSM-ERA5), a novel ensemble-based tide model, a parameterized wave setup model, and statistical correcti
Authors
Kai Alexander Parker, Li H. Erikson, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Patrick L. Barnard, Sanne Muis
Rapid modeling of compound flooding across broad coastal regions and the necessity to include rainfall driven processes: A case study of Hurricane Florence (2018)
In this work, we show that large-scale compound flood models developed for North and South Carolina, USA, can skillfully simulate multiple drivers of coastal flooding as confirmed by measurements collected during Hurricane Florence (2018). Besides the accuracy of representing observed water levels, the importance of individual processes was investigated. We demonstrate that across the area of inte
Authors
Tim Leijnse, Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Kai Alexander Parker, Maarten van Ormondt, Li H. Erikson, Robert T. McCall, Ap van Dongeren, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard