Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

A study led by USGS outlines a multifaceted climate-driven crisis facing communities along the Southeast Atlantic coast of the United States. As sea level rises, increased flooding, land subsidence, beach erosion, and rising groundwater levels threaten the safety, property, and infrastructure of millions.

Widespread Risks Beyond Flooding

While previous research has largely focused on flooding, the new study highlights additional threats such as groundwater hazards, land subsidence, and beach erosion. These hazards, often underappreciated in climate discussions, will be amplified by sea levels projected to rise by one meter over the next century. The study estimates that up to 70% of coastal residents and $1 trillion in property could face challenges from shallow and emerging groundwater. This risk is 15 times greater than the exposure to daily tidal flooding alone.

Map showing coastal hazard exposure across SE Atlantic coast of US, with inset focusing on Miami Beach, FL
Figure a, Coastal flooding (no storm), shallow groundwater exposure and erosion (unimpeded model case) for one meter of sea-level rise and observed vertical land motion (VLM) across the Southeast Atlantic coast. b–e, A section of the city of Miami Beach showing coastal flooding (no storm; b), shallow groundwater exposure (c) and erosion (unimpeded model case) for 1.00 m of SLR (d) and observed VLM (e).
Storms and Escalating Exposure  

Storm activity, which is becoming more intense with climate change, adds another layer of complexity. The study projects that storm-driven flooding over the next century, including storm surge and wave-driven water levels, could expose roughly 50% of coastal residents and $770 billion in property to severe flooding, an increase by an order of magnitude compared to daily flood impacts.  

 
Disappearing Beaches and Subsidence  

The study also warns of dramatic shoreline changes, with up to 80% of present-day beaches at risk of being completely eroded. This loss would not only devastate ecosystems and tourism but also weaken natural flood defenses, leaving coastal areas more vulnerable. Compounding these issues is the high rate of land subsidence already affecting more than one million residents in the region. This gradual sinking of the ground will intensify flooding and groundwater hazards, further challenging adaptation efforts.

Erosion at Fire Island, New York

Implications for Coastal Communities 

“This is not just a flooding issue—it’s a multi-dimensional challenge,” said USGS Research Geologist Patrick Barnard, lead author of the study. "Comprehensive adaptation measures that account for the interconnectedness of these hazards are urgently needed."

The findings underscore the necessity of considering holistic approaches to climate adaptation including a variety of potential strategies, including enhancing coastal defenses via both hard structures and nature-based solutions, redesigning infrastructure, and possibly relocating at-risk communities. Without swift action, the cumulative impacts of these hazards could reshape the Southeast Atlantic coastline and the lives of its inhabitants.

Get Our News

These items are in the RSS feed format (Really Simple Syndication) based on categories such as topics, locations, and more. You can install and RSS reader browser extension, software, or use a third-party service to receive immediate news updates depending on the feed that you have added. If you click the feed links below, they may look strange because they are simply XML code. An RSS reader can easily read this code and push out a notification to you when something new is posted to our site.

Was this page helpful?