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Michael L Blanpied

Michael L. Blanpied, Ph.D., is a geophysicist serving as Associate Coordinator of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Program.

His duties include oversight of the Program’s earthquake hazards assessments and its research on earthquake physics, occurrence and effects. He serves as executive secretary to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), an expert group that advises USGS on earthquake predictions and forecasting methods. 

Dr. Blanpied graduated from Yale University in 1983 with major in Geology and Geophysics, and completed a PhD at Brown University in 1989, with a focus on experimental rock mechanics applied to fault friction and earthquake initiation. He joined the USGS earthquake research group in Menlo Park, CA in 1989, where his research focused on the physics of earthquakes, including experimental investigations of the physics of fault slip and frictional properties of fault surfaces; applications of laboratory data to earthquake occurrence and the deformation of the continental crust; computer and laboratory modeling of earthquake interactions; and the development and application of probabilistic assessments of earthquake likelihood. He served as co-chair of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, which developed a new methodology for forecasting the likelihood of damaging earthquakes and published 30-year forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Region in 1999 and 2003. He served as Deputy Director of the Earthquake Science Center for four years before relocating to USGS headquarters in Reston, Virginia in 2003 to join the Earthquake Hazards Program office. 

 

Science and Products

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USGS science for a changing world logo

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
link

Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
Learn More

Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
By
Earthquake Hazards Program

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Edward H. Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nicolas Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Fred Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic ha
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay, Michael Blanpied, Oliver S. Boyd, Richard W. Briggs, Ryan D. Gold, Robert Graves, Stephen H. Hartzell, Sanaz Rezaeian, William J. Stephenson, David J. Wald, Robert A. Williams, Kyle Withers
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

Discriminating between natural vs induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults

To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas, and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009 earthquake activity in the CUS has increased dramatically, and numerous publications s
Authors
Maria Beatrice Magnani, Michael Blanpied, Heather R. DeShon, Matthew Hornbach
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program

Proceedings of workshop LXIII; USGS Red-Book conference on the Mechanical involvement of fluids in faulting

No abstract available.
Authors
Muriel L. Jacobson, S.H. Hickman, R.H. Sibson, R.L. Bruhn

Velocity dependent friction of granite over a wide range of conditions

Direct shear sliding experiments on bare ground surfaces of Westerly granite have been conducted over an exceptionally wide range of sliding rates (10−4 µm/s to 10³ µm/s) at unconfined normal stresses (σn) of 5, 15, 30, 70, and 150 MPa. A new sample configuration was developed that permitted measurements at normal stresses of 70 and 150 MPa without immediate sample failure. Measurements of steady-
Authors
Brian D. Kilgore, Michael L. Blanpied, James H. Dieterich

An earthquake mechanism based on rapid sealing of faults

RECENT seismological, heat flow and stress measurements in active fault zones such as the San Andreas have led to the suggestion1,2 that such zones can be relatively weak. One explanation for this may be the presence of overpressured fluids along the fault3-5, which would reduce the shear stress required for sliding by partially 'floating' the rock. Although several mechanisms have been proposed f
Authors
M.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. Byerlee

Creep, compaction and the weak rheology of major faults

Field and laboratory observations suggest that the porosity within fault zones varies over earthquake cycles so that fluid pressure is in long-term equilibrium with hydrostatic fluid pressure in the country rock. Between earthquakes, ductile creep compacts the fault zone, increasing fluid pressure, and finally allowing frictional failure at relatively low shear stress. Earthquake faulting restores
Authors
Norman H. Sleep, M.L. Blanpied

Fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions

Seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1–3 to 12–15km. Tse and Rice (1986) suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening (destabilizing) to velocity strengthening (stabilizing) friction. They inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite; however, pore fluids exist at elevated temperatur
Authors
M.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. Byerlee

Non-USGS Publications**

Blanpied, M. L., and T.E. Tullis, 1986, The stability and behavior of a frictional system with a two state variable constitutive law, Pure Appl. Geophys., 124, 415-440, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-0348-6601-9_3.
Blanpied, M. L., T.E. Tullis, and J.D. Weeks, 1987, Frictional behavior of granite at low and high sliding velocities, Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 554-557, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/GL014i005p00554/full.
Blanpied, M.L., 1989, Friction constitutive behavior and textural evolution of experimental faults in granite, Ph.D. thesis, 152pp., Brown University, Providence, R.I., May, 1989.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

Science and Products

  • Science
    link
    USGS science for a changing world logo

    Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

    It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
    By
    John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
    link

    Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California

    It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s
    Learn More
  • Data

    Data Release for the 2023 U.S. 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model - Overview

    This data release contains data sets associated with the 2023 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model Update. The 2023 50-State National Seimsic Hazard Model (NSHM) Update includes an update to the NSHMs for the conterminous U.S (CONUS, last updated in 2018), Alaska (AK, last updated in 2007), and Hawaii (last updated in 2001). Data sets include inputs like seismicity catalogs used as input to the
    By
    Earthquake Hazards Program
  • Publications

    The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

    The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
    Authors
    Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Edward H. Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nicolas Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Fred Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter

    Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

    For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic ha
    Authors
    Morgan P. Moschetti, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay, Michael Blanpied, Oliver S. Boyd, Richard W. Briggs, Ryan D. Gold, Robert Graves, Stephen H. Hartzell, Sanaz Rezaeian, William J. Stephenson, David J. Wald, Robert A. Williams, Kyle Withers
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center

    Discriminating between natural vs induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults

    To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas, and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009 earthquake activity in the CUS has increased dramatically, and numerous publications s
    Authors
    Maria Beatrice Magnani, Michael Blanpied, Heather R. DeShon, Matthew Hornbach
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program

    Proceedings of workshop LXIII; USGS Red-Book conference on the Mechanical involvement of fluids in faulting

    No abstract available.
    Authors
    Muriel L. Jacobson, S.H. Hickman, R.H. Sibson, R.L. Bruhn

    Velocity dependent friction of granite over a wide range of conditions

    Direct shear sliding experiments on bare ground surfaces of Westerly granite have been conducted over an exceptionally wide range of sliding rates (10−4 µm/s to 10³ µm/s) at unconfined normal stresses (σn) of 5, 15, 30, 70, and 150 MPa. A new sample configuration was developed that permitted measurements at normal stresses of 70 and 150 MPa without immediate sample failure. Measurements of steady-
    Authors
    Brian D. Kilgore, Michael L. Blanpied, James H. Dieterich

    An earthquake mechanism based on rapid sealing of faults

    RECENT seismological, heat flow and stress measurements in active fault zones such as the San Andreas have led to the suggestion1,2 that such zones can be relatively weak. One explanation for this may be the presence of overpressured fluids along the fault3-5, which would reduce the shear stress required for sliding by partially 'floating' the rock. Although several mechanisms have been proposed f
    Authors
    M.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. Byerlee

    Creep, compaction and the weak rheology of major faults

    Field and laboratory observations suggest that the porosity within fault zones varies over earthquake cycles so that fluid pressure is in long-term equilibrium with hydrostatic fluid pressure in the country rock. Between earthquakes, ductile creep compacts the fault zone, increasing fluid pressure, and finally allowing frictional failure at relatively low shear stress. Earthquake faulting restores
    Authors
    Norman H. Sleep, M.L. Blanpied

    Fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions

    Seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1–3 to 12–15km. Tse and Rice (1986) suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening (destabilizing) to velocity strengthening (stabilizing) friction. They inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite; however, pore fluids exist at elevated temperatur
    Authors
    M.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. Byerlee

    Non-USGS Publications**

    Blanpied, M. L., and T.E. Tullis, 1986, The stability and behavior of a frictional system with a two state variable constitutive law, Pure Appl. Geophys., 124, 415-440, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-0348-6601-9_3.
    Blanpied, M. L., T.E. Tullis, and J.D. Weeks, 1987, Frictional behavior of granite at low and high sliding velocities, Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 554-557, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/GL014i005p00554/full.
    Blanpied, M.L., 1989, Friction constitutive behavior and textural evolution of experimental faults in granite, Ph.D. thesis, 152pp., Brown University, Providence, R.I., May, 1989.

    **Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.