Michael L. Blanpied, Ph.D., is a geophysicist serving as Associate Coordinator of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Program.
His duties include oversight of the Program’s earthquake hazards assessments and its research on earthquake physics, occurrence and effects. He serves as executive secretary to the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), an expert group that advises USGS on earthquake predictions and forecasting methods.
Dr. Blanpied graduated from Yale University in 1983 with major in Geology and Geophysics, and completed a PhD at Brown University in 1989, with a focus on experimental rock mechanics applied to fault friction and earthquake initiation. He joined the USGS earthquake research group in Menlo Park, CA in 1989, where his research focused on the physics of earthquakes, including experimental investigations of the physics of fault slip and frictional properties of fault surfaces; applications of laboratory data to earthquake occurrence and the deformation of the continental crust; computer and laboratory modeling of earthquake interactions; and the development and application of probabilistic assessments of earthquake likelihood. He served as co-chair of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, which developed a new methodology for forecasting the likelihood of damaging earthquakes and published 30-year forecasts for the San Francisco Bay Region in 1999 and 2003. He served as Deputy Director of the Earthquake Science Center for four years before relocating to USGS headquarters in Reston, Virginia in 2003 to join the Earthquake Hazards Program office.
Science and Products
Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
Discriminating between natural vs induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults
Proceedings of workshop LXIII; USGS Red-Book conference on the Mechanical involvement of fluids in faulting
Velocity dependent friction of granite over a wide range of conditions
An earthquake mechanism based on rapid sealing of faults
Creep, compaction and the weak rheology of major faults
Fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
Science and Products
- Publications
Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic haAuthorsMorgan P. Moschetti, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay, Michael Blanpied, Oliver S. Boyd, Richard W. Briggs, Ryan D. Gold, Robert Graves, Stephen H. Hartzell, Sanaz Rezaeian, William J. Stephenson, David J. Wald, Robert A. Williams, Kyle WithersDiscriminating between natural vs induced seismicity from long-term deformation history of intraplate faults
To assess whether recent seismicity is induced by human activity or is of natural origin, we analyze fault displacements on high-resolution seismic reflection profiles for two regions in the central United States (CUS): the Fort Worth Basin (FWB) of Texas, and the northern Mississippi embayment (NME). Since 2009 earthquake activity in the CUS has increased dramatically, and numerous publications sAuthorsMaria Beatrice Magnani, Michael Blanpied, Heather R. DeShon, Matthew HornbachProceedings of workshop LXIII; USGS Red-Book conference on the Mechanical involvement of fluids in faulting
No abstract available.AuthorsMuriel L. Jacobson, S.H. Hickman, R.H. Sibson, R.L. BruhnVelocity dependent friction of granite over a wide range of conditions
Direct shear sliding experiments on bare ground surfaces of Westerly granite have been conducted over an exceptionally wide range of sliding rates (10−4 µm/s to 10³ µm/s) at unconfined normal stresses (σn) of 5, 15, 30, 70, and 150 MPa. A new sample configuration was developed that permitted measurements at normal stresses of 70 and 150 MPa without immediate sample failure. Measurements of steady-AuthorsBrian D. Kilgore, Michael L. Blanpied, James H. DieterichAn earthquake mechanism based on rapid sealing of faults
RECENT seismological, heat flow and stress measurements in active fault zones such as the San Andreas have led to the suggestion1,2 that such zones can be relatively weak. One explanation for this may be the presence of overpressured fluids along the fault3-5, which would reduce the shear stress required for sliding by partially 'floating' the rock. Although several mechanisms have been proposed fAuthorsM.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. ByerleeCreep, compaction and the weak rheology of major faults
Field and laboratory observations suggest that the porosity within fault zones varies over earthquake cycles so that fluid pressure is in long-term equilibrium with hydrostatic fluid pressure in the country rock. Between earthquakes, ductile creep compacts the fault zone, increasing fluid pressure, and finally allowing frictional failure at relatively low shear stress. Earthquake faulting restoresAuthorsNorman H. Sleep, M.L. BlanpiedFault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions
Seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1-3 to 12-15 km. Tse and Rice (1986) suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening (destabilizing) to velocity strengthening (stabilizing) friction. New data is presented from sliding experiments on granite at elevated T (23?? to 600??C) plus elevated PH2O(100 MPAuthorsM.L. Blanpied, D. A. Lockner, J. D. ByerleeNon-USGS Publications**
Blanpied, M. L., and T.E. Tullis, 1986, The stability and behavior of a frictional system with a two state variable constitutive law, Pure Appl. Geophys., 124, 415-440, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-0348-6601-9_3.Blanpied, M. L., T.E. Tullis, and J.D. Weeks, 1987, Frictional behavior of granite at low and high sliding velocities, Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 554-557, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/GL014i005p00554/full.Blanpied, M.L., 1989, Friction constitutive behavior and textural evolution of experimental faults in granite, Ph.D. thesis, 152pp., Brown University, Providence, R.I., May, 1989.**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
- Science
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s...