Michael Runge is a research ecologist at the Eastern Ecological Science Center, where he has worked since 1999.
He received a B.A. in biology and philosophy (1989) from the Johns Hopkins University, an M.A.T. (Master of Arts in Teaching) in biology (1994) from Spalding University, and a Ph.D. in wildlife science (1999),with minors in biometrics and agricultural economics, from Cornell University. He taught math and science at St. Francis High School in Louisville, Kentucky, from 1989 to 1994. Dr. Runge was a visiting scientist at the University of Melbourne, School of Botany, from 2009 to 2010.
See July 2015 interview in Nature.
Honors, Awards, Recognition, and Elected Memberships
- Presidential Scholar. The White House. June 1985.
- Phi Beta Kappa. Johns Hopkins University. Election, March 1988.
- Delta Epsilon Sigma. Spalding University. Election, April 1994.
- Gamma Sigma Delta. Cornell University. Election, May 1998.
- Superior Service Award. United States Department of Interior. October 2005. For “an exceptional job of making your science available to natural resource managers for use in their management decisions.”
- Extraordinary Contribution. Chief, National Wildlife Refuge System, USFWS. June 2003. For extraordinary contributions to Fulfilling the Promise.
- Regional Director’s Conservation Award, USFWS Region 4. May 2007. For contributions to and partnership in the science and recovery efforts of the Florida manatee.
- Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior. September 2007. “In recognition of outstanding achievements in introducing the adaptive management initiative across the Department.”
- Unit Award for Excellence of Service. U.S. Department of Interior. November 2007. “In recognition of the outstanding contributions of the International Polar Bear Science Team in providing timely information in support of the USFWS polar bear listing decision.”
- Regional Director’s Award for Excellence in Communication. USGS Western Region. November 2007. “In recognition of outstanding science leading to enhanced understanding of the relation between climate change and polar bears.”
STAR (Scientific Achievement) Awards
- PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey. January 2002. For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.
- PWRC, U.S. Geological Survey. January 2002. For helping organize and present the Adaptive Management Workshop at the 2001 Wildlife Society Meeting.
- USGS. August 2003. For supporting the USFWS in the manatee incidental take rule-making.
- USFWS Region 5. June 2004. For outstanding contributions to improving wildlife management science on National Wildlife Refuges thr
Science and Products
Disease Decision Analysis and Research
COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics
Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats
Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease
Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows
Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems
Informing Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate
Population Ecology of Florida Manatees
Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases
Structured Decision Making
Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty
Integrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails
Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species
An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)
Hurdles to developing quantitative decision support for Endangered Species Act resource allocation
Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
Vote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
A structured decision-making framework for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in New York State parks
Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination
Evaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to bats in the context of wildlife research, rehabilitation, and control
Collaborative hubs: Making the most of predictive epidemic modeling
Decision-support framework for linking regional-scale management actions to continental-scale conservation of wide-ranging species
Synergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)
A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)
Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk
This application is designed to evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American bats during winter field work and specifically surveys of winter roosts and hibernacula for white-nose syndrome.
Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 15
Disease Decision Analysis and Research
The Disease Decision Analysis and Research group is a multi-disciplinary team based out of the Eastern Ecological Science Center whose strengths are in ecology, decision sciences and quantitative modeling.COVID-19 Pathways and Wildlife Dynamics
Below are the USGS 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) research projects related to COVID-19 pathways and wildlife dynamics. Select tabs above for related items.Decision Science Support for SARS-CoV-2 Risk to North American Bats
The Eastern Ecological Science Center is working closely with federal, state, and tribal partners to help inform decisions that reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American wildlife, including bats.Decision science support for Chronic Wasting Disease
Eastern Ecological Science Center adds the decision analytical skill set to the existing body of USGS expertise on Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD), in support of our sister DOI agencies.Is timing really everything? Evaluating Resource Response to Spring Disturbance Flows
Glen Canyon Dam has altered ecological processes of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Before the dam was built, the Colorado River experienced seasonable variable flow rates, including springtime flooding events. These spring floods scoured the river bottom and enhanced natural processes that sustained the Colorado River ecosystem. Since the dam’s construction in 1963, springtime floods have...Markov decision processes in non-autonomous socio-ecological systems
Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural systeInforming Management of Waterfowl Harvest in a Changing Climate
The ability to effectively manage wildlife in North America is founded in an understanding of how human actions and the environment influence wildlife populations. Current management practices are informed by population monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about future population status. In most cases, including the regulation of waterfowl huPopulation Ecology of Florida Manatees
USGS is working with partners to understand how the federally protected Florida manatee population changes over time and responds to threats.Environmental Management of Vector-borne Diseases
Effective management programs for vector-borne pathogens, such as West Nile Virus and the Lyme disease spirochete, are necessary to protect public health. However, some vector control methods, such as landscape manipulations and pesticide applications, can also adversely affect nontarget species and environmentally sensitive natural systems. Efficient targeting and integration of vector control...Structured Decision Making
The biggest natural resource management challenges include competing views of the value and uses of those resources in society. Patuxent scientists develop methods to manage resources given those competing views under a “structured decision making” (SDM) framework. Our scientists both practice and train others in key SDM skills, such as model development and monitoring design.Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty
Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds vIntegrating Habitat and Harvest Management for Northern Pintails
The Challenge: Several blue-ribbon panels have challenged the waterfowl management world to recognize the linkages between the two primary management frameworks: harvest management under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, and habitat management under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. Because these two frameworks seek to manage the same populations, there needs to be better coordination, in... - Data
Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species
This data release presents the data, JAGS models, and R code used to manipulate data and to produce results and figures presented in the USGS Open File Report, "Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species", (https://doi.org/10.5066/P93YTR3X). The zip folder is provided so that other can reproduAn expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)
Table summarizing results from expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis). - Multimedia
- Publications
Filter Total Items: 140
Hurdles to developing quantitative decision support for Endangered Species Act resource allocation
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service oversees the recovery of many species protected by the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Recent research suggests that a structured approach to allocating conservation resources could increase recovery outcomes for ESA listed species. Quantitative approaches to decision support can efficiently allocate limited financial resources and maximize desired outcomes. YVote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system willVote-processing rules for combining control recommendations from multiple models
Mathematical modelling is used during disease outbreaks to compare control interventions. Using multiple models, the best method to combine model recommendations is unclear. Existing methods weight model projections, then rank control interventions using the combined projections, presuming model outputs are directly comparable. However, the way each model represents the epidemiological system willA structured decision-making framework for managing cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in New York State parks
Cyanobacteria are increasingly a global water-quality concern because of the potential for these organisms to develop into potentially harmful blooms that affect ecological, economic, and public health. Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) can lead to a decrease in water quality and affect many of the recreational and ecological benefits of parks that include lakes. The New York State OProjected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination
In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic modeEvaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to bats in the context of wildlife research, rehabilitation, and control
Preventing wildlife disease outbreaks is a priority for natural resource agencies, and management decisions can be urgent, especially in epidemic circumstances. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, wildlife agencies were concerned whether the activities they authorize might increase the risk of viral transmission from humans to North American bats, but had a limited amount of time in which to make deCollaborative hubs: Making the most of predictive epidemic modeling
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in how governments and the public understand and respond to infectious disease crises. In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, models were used first to estimate the true number of infections, then to provide estimates of key parameters, to generate short-term forecasts of outbreak trends, and to quantify the pDecision-support framework for linking regional-scale management actions to continental-scale conservation of wide-ranging species
Anas acuta (Northern pintail; hereafter pintail) was selected as a model species on which to base a decision-support framework linking regional actions to continental-scale population and harvest objectives. This framework was then used to engage stakeholders, such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives’ (LCCs’) habitat management partners within areas of importance to pintails, while maximizing cSynergistic interventions to control COVID-19: Mass testing and isolation mitigates reliance on distancing
Stay-at-home orders and shutdowns of non-essential businesses are powerful, but socially costly, tools to control the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Mass testing strategies, which rely on widely administered frequent and rapid diagnostics to identify and isolate infected individuals, could be a potentially less disruptive management strategy, particularly where vaccine access is limited. In this pA Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)
The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal tA core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)
A stochastic, stage-based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four separate regions of Florida. This population model includes annual variability in survival and reproductive rates, demographic stochasticity, effects of changes in warm-water capacity, and catastrophes. Further, t - Web Tools
Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk
This application is designed to evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from humans to North American bats during winter field work and specifically surveys of winter roosts and hibernacula for white-nose syndrome.
- Software
Decision-Support Tool to Estimate SARS-CoV-2 Human-to-bat Transmission Risk
Source code to run Shiny app of North American bat SARS2 risk model during winter fieldwork - News