Michelle is a hydrologist at the USGS California Water Science Center in Sacramento, CA.
Her research focus is on climate change and soil moisture as key processes of watershed and regional-scale hydrologic modeling. Other research interests include geospatial analysis and sediment transport. She has also performed extensive laboratory work determining physical properties of soil samples and sediment cores. Current research includes refining and applying the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and the development of an Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Sacramento River basin to determine future sediment supply to the Bay-Delta as part of the Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem (CASCaDE) project. A key goal of all her research is to determine a holistic understanding of watershed hydrologic processes at different spatial scales.
Science and Products
New Technologies for Mapping Surface Soil Moisture Over Wildfire-Prone Landscapes
Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Cultural Prescribed Fire as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands
Sediment transport, streamflow, and climate change: long-term resilience of the Bay-Delta
Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
Researching Climate Conditions for CAL FIRE Wildfire Restoration Efforts
Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
Increasing Soil Organic Carbon to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases and Increase Climate Resiliency for California
Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) for California Coastal Basins - Monthly Historical (water years 1896-2019) and Future (water years 2006-2099) Climate and Hydrology
Salinas Valley Hydrologic System: Regional Climate Data
Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) monthly recharge and runoff for the Anza-Cahuilla Groundwater Basin, California
The Basin Characterization Model - A monthly regional water balance software package (BCMv8) data release and model archive for hydrologic California (ver. 3.0, June 2023)
Daily Basin Characterization Model (BCM) archive for Humboldt Bay/Eel River
Sacramento River Basin future daily streamflow and sediment HSPF outputs
Discovery and potential ramifications of reduced iron-bearing nanoparticles — Magnetite, wüstite, and zero-valent iron — In wildland–urban interface fire ashes
Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions
A basin-scale approach to estimating recharge in the desert: Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin, CA
Amplified impact of climate change on fine-sediment delivery to a subsiding coast, Humboldt Bay, California
The basin characterization model—A regional water balance software package
The future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta
PFHydro: A new watershed-scale model for post-fire runoff simulation
Characterization of hydrology and sediment transport following drought and wildfire in Cache Creek, California
A multi-scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California: Design and validation
Increasing soil organic carbon to mitigate greenhouse gases and increase climate resiliency for California
Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
Geothermal implications of a refined composition-age geologic map for the volcanic terrains of southeast Oregon, northeast California, and southwest Idaho, USA
Non-USGS Publications**
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) models the interactions of climate with empirically measured landscape attributes including topography, soils, and underlying geology. It is a grid-based model that calculates the water balance for each 18-acre cell (270m resolution) in a given watershed in set time steps for the entire area.
Science and Products
- Science
New Technologies for Mapping Surface Soil Moisture Over Wildfire-Prone Landscapes
A partnership between the USGS, Pepperwood Preserve, and Black Swift LLC aims to map soil and fuel moisture over wildfire-prone landscapes.Improving Water Resilience and Availability Through Cultural Prescribed Fire as a Management Tool on Yurok Tribal Lands
Climate Change is making our environment unpredictable. Increased persistence of drought is causing deaths of plants and animals across our landscapes. However, drought amongst the western United States is not a new thing. Native American populations have been living with drought since time immemorial and practiced culturally prescribed fire practices to foster the landscape for an environment thaSediment transport, streamflow, and climate change: long-term resilience of the Bay-Delta
Sediment supply is important to the health of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and San Francisco Bay (Bay-Delta) ecosystem. Sediment eroded from upland source areas in the Sacramento and San Joaquin watersheds is transported through the rivers to the Bay-Delta where it is deposited in mudflats and tidal wetlands, which in turn helps protect against the effects of sea-level rise. Sediment...Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
Soil moisture is a critical variable for understanding the impacts of drought on ecological, hydrological, and agricultural systems, as soil moisture content has a direct affect on runoff amounts. Runoff occurs as the result of precipitation (both rainfall and snowfall) that is in excess of the demands of evaporation from land surfaces, transpiration from vegetation, and infiltration into soils...Researching Climate Conditions for CAL FIRE Wildfire Restoration Efforts
In California, drought and warmer climates have increased the prevalence, severity, and duration of wildfires. These fires have destroyed over 129 million trees. In the aftermath of this devastation, there is heightened urgency to increase the capacity of seedling production, particularly for the lower-elevation and private lands that CAL FIRE is responsible to help manage. To support CAL FIRE in...Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) is a simple grid-based model that calculates the water balance for any time step or spatial scale by using climate inputs, precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature. The BCM can translate fine-scale maps of climate trends and projections into the hydrologic consequences, to permit evaluation of the impacts to water availability at regional, watershed...Increasing Soil Organic Carbon to Mitigate Greenhouse Gases and Increase Climate Resiliency for California
Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding... - Data
Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) for California Coastal Basins - Monthly Historical (water years 1896-2019) and Future (water years 2006-2099) Climate and Hydrology
This data release contains monthly 270-meter gridded Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) climate inputs and hydrologic outputs for 17 California Coastal Basins (Eel River, Fort Bragg, Fort Ross, Klamath, Los Angeles, Mad River, Mattole, Napa Sonoma, Russian River, Salinas, San Diego, San Francisco Coastal South, Santa Clara River Valley, Santa Clara River Valley South Bay, Smith, South Bay, and SSalinas Valley Hydrologic System: Regional Climate Data
This digital dataset contains the climate data used for the Salinas Valley Hydrologic System, including the Salinas Valley Watershed Model (SVWM) and the Lower Salinas Valley Hydrologic Models (Salinas Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (SVIHM) and Salinas Valley Operational Model (SVOM)). The climate data include spatially distributed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, andBasin Characterization Model (BCMv8) monthly recharge and runoff for the Anza-Cahuilla Groundwater Basin, California
This dataset provides monthly and average annual long-term estimates (water years 1981-2010) of gridded recharge and runoff from water years 1896-2018 for the Anza-Cahuilla Groundwater Basin in southern California. Gridded data are available in flat ASCII files (*.asc) in the NAD83 California Teale Albers projection. This dataset also includes streamflow calibration basins and stations as shape fiThe Basin Characterization Model - A monthly regional water balance software package (BCMv8) data release and model archive for hydrologic California (ver. 3.0, June 2023)
This data release accompanies the USGS Techniques and Methods report titled: "The Basin Characterization Model - A Regional Water Balance Software Package", and includes all necessary Basin Characterization Model version 8 (BCMv8) inputs and outputs for water years 1896 to 2021. The BCMv8 was refined from the previous BCMv65 version to improve the accuracy of the water-balance components, particulDaily Basin Characterization Model (BCM) archive for Humboldt Bay/Eel River
This data set includes: 1) A shapefile of the Humboldt Bay Eel River (HBER) 13 sub watersheds, 2) A shape file of the streamflow gages used in calibration, and 3) Daily Basin Characterization Model (BCM) model climate inputs (minimum and maximum air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration) and outputs of recharge and runoff for the year 2010 used to develop streamflow estimateSacramento River Basin future daily streamflow and sediment HSPF outputs
This dataset contains the model outputs from the daily Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model of the Sacramento River Basin, including streamflow and sediment time series from water years 1981-2099. Streamflow time series data are in cubic feet per second, sediment loads are in tons per day, and suspended sediment concentrations are in milligrams per liter. - Publications
Filter Total Items: 13
Discovery and potential ramifications of reduced iron-bearing nanoparticles — Magnetite, wüstite, and zero-valent iron — In wildland–urban interface fire ashes
The increase in fires at the wildland–urban interface has raised concerns about the potential environmental impact of ash remaining after burning. Here, we examined the concentrations and speciation of iron-bearing nanoparticles in wildland–urban interface ash. Total iron concentrations in ash varied between 4 and 66 mg g−1. Synchrotron X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy ofAuthorsMohammed Baalousha, Morgane Desmau, Sheryl A. Singerling, Jackson P. Webster, Sandrine Matiasek, Michelle A. Stern, Charles N. AlpersSelecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions
High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscapAuthorsMichelle A. Stern, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Ryan M Boynton, Joseph A E Stewart, Jessica W Wright, James H. ThorneA basin-scale approach to estimating recharge in the desert: Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin, CA
The Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin located mainly in the semi-arid headwaters of the Santa Margarita River watershed in southern California is the principle source of groundwater for a rural disadvantaged community and two Native American Tribes, the Ramona Band of Cahuilla and the Cahuilla. Groundwater in the study area is derived entirely from precipitation and managing groundwater sustainablyAuthorsMichelle A. Stern, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Allen H. ChristensenAmplified impact of climate change on fine-sediment delivery to a subsiding coast, Humboldt Bay, California
In Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow waAuthorsJennifer Curtis, Lorraine E. Flint, Michelle A. Stern, Jack Lewis, Randy D. KleinThe basin characterization model—A regional water balance software package
This report documents the computer software package, Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8)—a monthly, gridded, regional water-balance model—and provides detailed operational instructions and example applications. After several years of many applications and uses of a previous version, CA-BCM, published in 2014, the BCMv8 was refined to improve the accuracy of the water-balance componentsAuthorsLorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Michelle A. SternThe future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta
Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐DeAuthorsMichelle A. Stern, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L Flint, Noah Knowles, Scott A. WrightPFHydro: A new watershed-scale model for post-fire runoff simulation
Runoff increases after wildfires that burn vegetation and create a condition of soil-water repellence (SWR). A new post-fire watershed hydrological model, PFHydro, was created to explicitly simulate vegetation interception and SWR effects for four burn severity categories: high, medium, low severity and unburned. The model was applied to simulate post-fire runoff from the Upper Cache Creek WatershAuthorsJun Wang, Michelle A. Stern, Vanessa M. King, Charles N. Alpers, Nigel W. T. Quinn, Alan L. Flint, Lorraine E. FlintCharacterization of hydrology and sediment transport following drought and wildfire in Cache Creek, California
The worst drought in California in over 1,200 years occurred between 2012-2017 (Griffin, 2014), depleting surface water and groundwater supply and drying out the soils past wilting point. In the summer of 2015, the Jerusalem and Rocky fires burned roughly 40,000 acres within the Cache Creek watershed. To fully characterize the post-fire effects in the Cache Creek watershed, an hourly model of streAuthorsMichelle A. Stern, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. FlintA multi-scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California: Design and validation
A multi‐scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California was designed to inform water resource management. The proposed workflow classifies soil moisture response units (SMRUs) using publicly available datasets that represent soil, vegetation, climate, and hydrology variables, which control soil water storage. The SMRUs were classified, using principal component analysis and unsupervised K‐mAuthorsJennifer Curtis, Lorraine E. Flint, Michelle A. SternIncreasing soil organic carbon to mitigate greenhouse gases and increase climate resiliency for California
Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding aAuthorsLorraine E. Flint, Alan L. Flint, Michelle A. Stern, Allegra Mayer, Whendee L. Silver, Clyde Casey, Fabiano Franco, Kristin B. Byrd, Benjamin M. Sleeter, P. Alvarez, J. Creque, T. Estrada, D. CameronSoil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California
In situ soil moisture datasets are important inputs used to calibrate and validate watershed, regional, or statewide modeled and satellite-based soil moisture estimates. The soil moisture dataset presented in this report includes hourly time series of the following: soil temperature, volumetric water content, water potential, and total soil water content. Data were collected by the U.S. GeologicalAuthorsMichelle A. Stern, Frank A. Anderson, Lorraine E. Flint, Alan L. FlintGeothermal implications of a refined composition-age geologic map for the volcanic terrains of southeast Oregon, northeast California, and southwest Idaho, USA
Sufficient temperatures to generate steam likely exist under most of the dominantly volcanic terrains of southeast Oregon, northeast California, and southeast Idaho, USA, but finding sufficient permeability to allow efficient advective heat exchange is an outstanding challenge. A new thematic interpretation of existing state-level geologic maps provides an updated and refined distribution of the cAuthorsErick Burns, Marshall W. Gannett, David R. Sherrod, Mackenzie K. Keith, Jennifer A. Curtis, James R. Bartolino, John A. Engott, Benjamin P. Scandella, Michelle A. Stern, Alan L. FlintNon-USGS Publications**
Stern, M.A., Flint, L.E., Minear, J.T., Flint, A.L., Wright, S.A., Characterizing Changes in Streamflow and Sediment Supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, Using Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF). Water. 2016; 8(10):432. doi:10.3390/w8100432**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
- Software
Basin Characterization Model (BCM)
The Basin Characterization Model (BCM) models the interactions of climate with empirically measured landscape attributes including topography, soils, and underlying geology. It is a grid-based model that calculates the water balance for each 18-acre cell (270m resolution) in a given watershed in set time steps for the entire area.