Morgan T Page
Science and Products
Could the M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake Sequence Trigger a Large Earthquake Nearby?
Two of the first questions that come to mind for anyone who just felt an earthquake are, “Will there be another one?” and “Will it be larger?”.
The Past Holds the Key to the Future of Aftershock Forecasting
Release Date: MAY 7, 2018
The outcomes of past aftershock sequences can be used to describe the range of possibilities for a current sequence.
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS...
Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes
Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and...
Updated California aftershock parameters
Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M≥5">M≥5...
Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas Turing-style tests for UCERF3 synthetic catalogs
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault-based long-term forecast with short-term earthquake clustering statistics. We present Turing-style tests to examine whether these synthetic catalogs...
Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐...
Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Page, Morgan T.; Milner, Kevin R.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Biasi, Glenn; Parsons, Thomas E.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Weldon, Ray; Powers, Peter M.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Zeng, Yuehua; Bird, Peter; Felzer, Karen; van der Elst, Nicholas; Madden, Christopher; Arrowsmith, Ramon; Werner, Maximillan J.; Thatcher, Wayne R. A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF)....
Field, Edward H.; Milner, Kevin R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Page, Morgan T.; van der Elst, Nicholas; Jordan, Thomas H.; Michael, Andrew J.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Werner, Maximillan J. Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts...
Page, Morgan T.; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Felzer, Karen; Michael, Andrew J. The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project
Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable...
Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel; Page, Morgan T.; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Asano, Kimiyuki; Causse, Mathieu; Custodio, Susana; Fan, Wenyuan; Festa, Gaetano; Galis, Martin; Gallovic, Frantisek; Imperatori, Walter; Käser, Martin; Malytskyy, Dmytro; Okuwaki, Ryo; Pollitz, Fred; Passone, Luca; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Sekiguchi, Haruko; Song, Seok Goo; Somala, Surendra N.; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Twardzik, Cedric; van Driel, Martin; Vyas, Jagdish C.; Wang, Rongjiang; Yagi, Yuji; Zielke, Olaf Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected
A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if...
Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Page, Morgan T.; Weiser, Deborah A. ; Goebel, Thomas; Hosseini, S. Mehran Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin
Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded...
Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T. The petroleum geologist and the insurance policy
In a recent study, Hough and Page (2015) presented several lines of evidence suggesting that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century, including the Mw 5.7 El Reno earthquake of 9 April 1952, were likely induced by wastewater injection and possibly secondary oil recovery operations. We undertook an archival...
Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T. A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the...
Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T. Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution
The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of...
Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new...
Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua