I specialize in the development of earthquake-forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic-hazard analysis (the other being a ground-motion model).
My focus area has mainly been California, which due to an abundance of riches in terms of both scientific talent and data constraints, has enabled the forging of state-or-the-art methodologies (California also hosts trillions of dollars in assets and, consequently, two-thirds of the nationwide seismic risk). The multi-disciplinary nature of earthquake forecasting necessitates a collaborative approach, which we have achieved through the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (www.WGCEP.org). I led the development of our most recent model, the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3; www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), which is innovative in terms of representing both multi-fault ruptures and spatiotemporal clustering (e.g. aftershocks); the relevance of both these effects was dramatically exemplified in a recent sequence of damaging earthquakes in New Zealand. Our forecast models influence a variety of risk mitigation activities, including construction requirements (building codes) and insurance rates. Important themes going forward include: a better quantification of uncertainties; the use of more physics-based approaches; and the need to add “valuation” to our verification and validation protocols (“all models are wrong” at some level, so a relevant question is whether a new and improved one really represents value added with respect to risk assessment).
I have also led the development of OpenSHA (http://www.OpenSHA.org), which is an object-oriented, GUI-enabled, open-source, and platform-independent computational framework for conducting seismic hazard analysis. OpenSHA also makes use of distributed object technologies (components can exist anywhere over the Internet), it runs on high-performance super computers, and it supports loss modeling as well.
I am also a member of the planning committee of the Southern California Earthquake Center (http://www.SCEC.org), and as such, I help formulated the SCEC science plan, write the annual RFPs, and review and recommend funding levels for proposals submitted to SCEC.
Science and Products
External Grants - Overview
Could the M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake Sequence Trigger a Large Earthquake Nearby?
Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes
Science and Products
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External Grants - Overview
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides support for research that will assist in achieving the goals of the Earthquake Hazards Program. The goal is to mitigate earthquake losses that can occur in many parts of the nation by providing earth science data and assessments essential for land-use planning, engineering design, and emergency preparedness decisions.Could the M7.1 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquake Sequence Trigger a Large Earthquake Nearby?
Release Date: SEPTEMBER 30, 2019 Two of the first questions that come to mind for anyone who just felt an earthquake are, “Will there be another one?” and “Will it be larger?”.Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California
It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast s...Joint USGS - GEM Group on Global Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Recurrence Rates and Maximum Magnitudes
Despite the best monitoring networks, the highest rate of earthquakes and the longest continuous recorded history in the world, this year’s M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was completely unforeseen. The Japanese had expected no larger than a M=8 quake in the Japan trench, 1/30 th the size of the Tohoku temblor. This year also saw the devastating M=6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake and the M... - Data
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