Dr. Paul Selmants is a Research Ecologist with the Western Geographic Science Center at Moffett Field, CA. His research seeks to quantify the impact of human activities on terrestrial ecosystems at regional to continental scales.
Paul uses data synthesis, geospatial analysis, and simulation modeling to examine the impact of climate and land use change on ecosystem carbon balance at the landscape scale. His research focus is on the western continental United States and the Hawaiian Islands.
Professional Experience
2020 – present: Research Ecologist, USGS Western Geographic Science Center
2016 - 2020: Research Physical Scientist, USGS Western Geographic Science Center
2012-16: Research Faculty, University of Hawaii at Manoa
2008 – 2011: Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, Santa Cruz
2007-08: Postdoc, Northern Arizona University
Education and Certifications
2007: Ph.D. Forest Science, Northern Arizona University
2000: M.S. Botany, University of Wyoming
1996: B.S. Botany, Miami University of Ohio
Affiliations and Memberships*
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Ecological Society of America (ESA)
Society for Open, Reliable, and Transparent Ecology and Evolutionary Biology (SORTEE)
Science and Products
Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will...
Spatial data of California riparian vegetation productivity trends over time (2000-2020) and environmental covariates
This data release contains a shapefile of riparian vegetation communities attributed with information on trends in satellite-estimates of vegetation productivity for the period from 2000-2020. Cloud-masked Landsat data were processed from 2000 to 2020 to generate a 21-year growing season (June, July, and August) time series combining data from Landsat 5 (2000-2011), Landsat 7 (2012), and Landsat 8
Frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States from 1985-2020
We summarized annual remote sensing land cover classifications from the U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) annual time series to characterize the frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States (CONUS) between 1985-2020. Data include a raster map of CONUS with pixel values representing the number of years in which it was classified as
Land change and carbon balance projections for the Hawaiian Islands
Tabular data output from a series of modeling simulations for the seven main Hawaiian Islands. We used the LUCAS model to project changes in ecosystem carbon balance resulting from land use, land use change, climate change, and wildfire. The model was run at a 250-m spatial resolution on an annual timestep from the years 2010 to 2100. We simulated four unique scenarios, consisting of all combinati
Filter Total Items: 14
Resilience of riparian vegetation productivity to early 21st century drought in northern California, USA
Drought and intensive land use can interact as stressors on riparian vegetation, especially along rivers flowing through seasonally dry landscapes. Knowledge of past riparian vegetation response to drought and land use change can provide land managers with a better understanding of changes induced by upstream management actions, climate change, and chronic stressors. To investigate the response of
Authors
Paul Selmants, Caroline Rose Conrad, Tamara S. Wilson, Miguel L. Villarreal
Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model
Authors
Paul Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson, Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, Gregory P. Asner
Modeling watershed carbon dynamics as affected by land cover change and soil erosion
Process-based ecosystem carbon cycle models typically incorporate vegetation growth, vegetation mortality, and soil respiration as well as the biotic and environmental drivers that influence these variables. However, few spatially explicit process models can efficiently incorporate the influence of land cover change and carbon lateral movement at regional scales or high spatial resolution. This st
Authors
Jinxun Liu, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Paul Selmants, Jiaojiao Diao, Qiang Zhou, Bruce Worstell, Monica Mei Jeen Moritsch
Trait-based filtering mediates the effects of realistic biodiversity losses on ecosystem functioning
Biodiversity losses are a major driver of global changes in ecosystem functioning. While most studies of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have examined randomized species losses, trait-based filtering associated with species-specific vulnerability to drivers of diversity loss can strongly influence how ecosystem functioning responds to declining biodiversity. Moreove
Authors
Amelia A. Wolf, Jennifer L. Funk, Paul Selmants, Connor N Morozumi, Daniel L. Hernandez, Jae R Pasari, Erika S Zavaleta
A new remote sensing-based Carbon Sequestration Potential Index (CSPI): A tool to support land carbon management
Integrating remote sensing into assessments of carbon stocks and fluxes has advanced our understanding of how global change affects landscapes and our capacity to support decision making about forest management. However, there remains a lack of detailed and actionable analyses conducted across widely ranging environmental conditions that are appropriate for tactical planning. We used airborne lase
Authors
Adrian Pascual, Christian P. Giardina, Paul Selmants, Leah J Laramee, Gregory P. Asner
Shaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits
Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in s
Authors
Benjamin P. Bryant, T. Rodd Kelsey, Adrian L. Vogl, Stacie A. Wolny, Duncan J. MacEwan, Paul Selmants, Tanushree Biswas, H. Scott Butterfield
Genetic variation in tree leaf chemistry predicts the abundance and activity of autotrophic soil microorganisms
Genetic variation in the chemistry of plant leaves can have ecosystem-level consequences. Here we address the hypothesis that genetic variation in foliar condensed tannins along a Populus hybridization gradient influence soil ammonia oxidizers, autotrophic microorganisms that perform the first step of nitrification and are not dependent on carbon derived from plant photosynthesis. Evidence that ge
Authors
Paul Selmants, Jennifer A. Schweitzer, Karen L. Adair, Liza M. Holeski, Richard L Lindroth, Stephen C. Hart, Thomas G. Whitham
Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial eco
Authors
Benjamin M. Sleeter, David Marvin, D. Richard Cameron, Paul Selmants, LeRoy Westerling, Jason R. Kreitler, Colin Daniel, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson
Actinorhizal species influence plant and soil nitrogen status of semiarid shrub-dominated ecosystems in the western Great Basin, USA
Actinorhizal plants form symbiotic root associations with dinitrogen (N2) fixing Frankia and are abundant in North American cold deserts. However, the extent to which actinorhizal species are actively fixing N2 or altering ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability remains unclear. We used the 15N natural abundance technique to measure how three widespread actinorhizal species in the western Great Basin
Authors
Stephanie M. Freund, Fiona M. Soper, Simon R. Poulson, Paul C. Selmants, Benjamin W. Sullivan
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time hori
Authors
Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. Loveland
Evaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems
Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to re
Authors
Heather L. Kimball, Paul Selmants, Alvaro Moreno, Running Steve W, Christian P. Giardina
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007
Non-USGS Publications**
Asner, GP, S Sousan, DE Knapp, PC Selmants, RE Martin, RF Hughes, and CP Giardina (2016) Rapid forest carbon assessment of oceanic islands: a case study of the Hawaiian archipelago. Carbon Balance and Management, 11:1. DOI: 10.1186/s13021-015-0043-4.
Selmants, PC, KL Adair, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and E Schwartz (2016) Increases in mean annual temperature do not alter soil bacterial community structure in tropical montane wet forests. Ecosphere 7(4):e01296. DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1296
Hernandez, DL, DM Vallano, ES Zavaleta, Z Tzankova, JR Pasari, S Weiss, PC Selmants, and C.M. Morozumi (2016) Nitrogen pollution is linked to to US listed species declines. BioScience 66: 213-222. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biw003
Bothwell LD, PC Selmants, CP Giardina, and CM Litton (2014) Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. PeerJ 2:e685. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.685
Selmants, PC, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and GP Asner (2014) Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. Global Change Biology 20: 2927–2937. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12636
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
- Science
Land Use and Climate Change Team
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will... - Data
Spatial data of California riparian vegetation productivity trends over time (2000-2020) and environmental covariates
This data release contains a shapefile of riparian vegetation communities attributed with information on trends in satellite-estimates of vegetation productivity for the period from 2000-2020. Cloud-masked Landsat data were processed from 2000 to 2020 to generate a 21-year growing season (June, July, and August) time series combining data from Landsat 5 (2000-2011), Landsat 7 (2012), and Landsat 8Frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States from 1985-2020
We summarized annual remote sensing land cover classifications from the U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) annual time series to characterize the frequency of forest change across the conterminous United States (CONUS) between 1985-2020. Data include a raster map of CONUS with pixel values representing the number of years in which it was classified asLand change and carbon balance projections for the Hawaiian Islands
Tabular data output from a series of modeling simulations for the seven main Hawaiian Islands. We used the LUCAS model to project changes in ecosystem carbon balance resulting from land use, land use change, climate change, and wildfire. The model was run at a 250-m spatial resolution on an annual timestep from the years 2010 to 2100. We simulated four unique scenarios, consisting of all combinati - Publications
Filter Total Items: 14
Resilience of riparian vegetation productivity to early 21st century drought in northern California, USA
Drought and intensive land use can interact as stressors on riparian vegetation, especially along rivers flowing through seasonally dry landscapes. Knowledge of past riparian vegetation response to drought and land use change can provide land managers with a better understanding of changes induced by upstream management actions, climate change, and chronic stressors. To investigate the response ofAuthorsPaul Selmants, Caroline Rose Conrad, Tamara S. Wilson, Miguel L. VillarrealEcosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change
The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation modelAuthorsPaul Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson, Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, Gregory P. AsnerModeling watershed carbon dynamics as affected by land cover change and soil erosion
Process-based ecosystem carbon cycle models typically incorporate vegetation growth, vegetation mortality, and soil respiration as well as the biotic and environmental drivers that influence these variables. However, few spatially explicit process models can efficiently incorporate the influence of land cover change and carbon lateral movement at regional scales or high spatial resolution. This stAuthorsJinxun Liu, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Paul Selmants, Jiaojiao Diao, Qiang Zhou, Bruce Worstell, Monica Mei Jeen MoritschTrait-based filtering mediates the effects of realistic biodiversity losses on ecosystem functioning
Biodiversity losses are a major driver of global changes in ecosystem functioning. While most studies of the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have examined randomized species losses, trait-based filtering associated with species-specific vulnerability to drivers of diversity loss can strongly influence how ecosystem functioning responds to declining biodiversity. MoreoveAuthorsAmelia A. Wolf, Jennifer L. Funk, Paul Selmants, Connor N Morozumi, Daniel L. Hernandez, Jae R Pasari, Erika S ZavaletaA new remote sensing-based Carbon Sequestration Potential Index (CSPI): A tool to support land carbon management
Integrating remote sensing into assessments of carbon stocks and fluxes has advanced our understanding of how global change affects landscapes and our capacity to support decision making about forest management. However, there remains a lack of detailed and actionable analyses conducted across widely ranging environmental conditions that are appropriate for tactical planning. We used airborne laseAuthorsAdrian Pascual, Christian P. Giardina, Paul Selmants, Leah J Laramee, Gregory P. AsnerShaping land use change and ecosystem restoration in a water-stressed agricultural landscape to achieve multiple benefits
Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in sAuthorsBenjamin P. Bryant, T. Rodd Kelsey, Adrian L. Vogl, Stacie A. Wolny, Duncan J. MacEwan, Paul Selmants, Tanushree Biswas, H. Scott ButterfieldGenetic variation in tree leaf chemistry predicts the abundance and activity of autotrophic soil microorganisms
Genetic variation in the chemistry of plant leaves can have ecosystem-level consequences. Here we address the hypothesis that genetic variation in foliar condensed tannins along a Populus hybridization gradient influence soil ammonia oxidizers, autotrophic microorganisms that perform the first step of nitrification and are not dependent on carbon derived from plant photosynthesis. Evidence that geAuthorsPaul Selmants, Jennifer A. Schweitzer, Karen L. Adair, Liza M. Holeski, Richard L Lindroth, Stephen C. Hart, Thomas G. WhithamEffects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecoAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, David Marvin, D. Richard Cameron, Paul Selmants, LeRoy Westerling, Jason R. Kreitler, Colin Daniel, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. WilsonActinorhizal species influence plant and soil nitrogen status of semiarid shrub-dominated ecosystems in the western Great Basin, USA
Actinorhizal plants form symbiotic root associations with dinitrogen (N2) fixing Frankia and are abundant in North American cold deserts. However, the extent to which actinorhizal species are actively fixing N2 or altering ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability remains unclear. We used the 15N natural abundance technique to measure how three widespread actinorhizal species in the western Great BasinAuthorsStephanie M. Freund, Fiona M. Soper, Simon R. Poulson, Paul C. Selmants, Benjamin W. SullivanEffects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horiAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. LovelandEvaluating the role of land cover and climate uncertainties in computing gross primary production in Hawaiian Island ecosystems
Gross primary production (GPP) is the Earth’s largest carbon flux into the terrestrial biosphere and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-MOD17 data product is a widely used remote sensing-based model that provides global estimates of spatiotemporal trends in GPP. When the MOD17 algorithm is applied to reAuthorsHeather L. Kimball, Paul Selmants, Alvaro Moreno, Running Steve W, Christian P. GiardinaBaseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007Non-USGS Publications**
Asner, GP, S Sousan, DE Knapp, PC Selmants, RE Martin, RF Hughes, and CP Giardina (2016) Rapid forest carbon assessment of oceanic islands: a case study of the Hawaiian archipelago. Carbon Balance and Management, 11:1. DOI: 10.1186/s13021-015-0043-4.Selmants, PC, KL Adair, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and E Schwartz (2016) Increases in mean annual temperature do not alter soil bacterial community structure in tropical montane wet forests. Ecosphere 7(4):e01296. DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1296Hernandez, DL, DM Vallano, ES Zavaleta, Z Tzankova, JR Pasari, S Weiss, PC Selmants, and C.M. Morozumi (2016) Nitrogen pollution is linked to to US listed species declines. BioScience 66: 213-222. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biw003Bothwell LD, PC Selmants, CP Giardina, and CM Litton (2014) Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. PeerJ 2:e685. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.685Selmants, PC, CM Litton, CP Giardina, and GP Asner (2014) Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests. Global Change Biology 20: 2927–2937. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12636**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government