We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below.
The LUCAS Model
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
California land-change projections
Land change and water use in California
Threats to protected areas
Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
National land use projections
- Overview
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
- Science
The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below.
The LUCAS Model
Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...Land change and water use in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...Threats to protected areas
Land-use intensification poses significant threats to biodiversity both directly through the alteration and fragmentation of ecosystems and habitat loss, and indirectly through the disruption of supporting ecological processes. While protected areas offer refugia for species and ecosystems, they do not function in isolation from surrounding natural, working, or human-dominated landscapes.Protected...Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The goal of this study was to develop an integrated, regional-scale terrestrial carbon model, which can project changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics resulting from both changing biophysical conditions (e.g. CO2 fertilization, changes in climate) and land-change processes (e.g. urbanization, agricultural intensification, wildfire, harvest).Our objective was to develop a modeling framework which...Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model was used to develop a baseline carbon (C) budget for the Great Dismal Swamp, VA., using an annualized Stock-Flow approach. The model infrastructure will be used going forward to assist with future land management and ecosystem services assessments.National land use projections
A major scientific challenge in global change research is connecting coarse-scale global assessments, particularly those involving the projection of land use, to scales relevant and useful for analysis and management. We have downscaled land use projections from two global scenario frameworks, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)... - Data
- Publications
- Partners