We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below.
The LUCAS Model
Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
California land-change projections
Land change and water use in California
Threats to protected areas
Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
National land use projections
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Land-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
Below are publications associated with this project.
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Land-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change
Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i
A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem
Future land-use related water demand in California
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
- Science
The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below.
The LUCAS Model
Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents...California land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5...Land change and water use in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed...Threats to protected areas
Land-use intensification poses significant threats to biodiversity both directly through the alteration and fragmentation of ecosystems and habitat loss, and indirectly through the disruption of supporting ecological processes. While protected areas offer refugia for species and ecosystems, they do not function in isolation from surrounding natural, working, or human-dominated landscapes.Protected...Land use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The goal of this study was to develop an integrated, regional-scale terrestrial carbon model, which can project changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics resulting from both changing biophysical conditions (e.g. CO2 fertilization, changes in climate) and land-change processes (e.g. urbanization, agricultural intensification, wildfire, harvest).Our objective was to develop a modeling framework which...Great Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model was used to develop a baseline carbon (C) budget for the Great Dismal Swamp, VA., using an annualized Stock-Flow approach. The model infrastructure will be used going forward to assist with future land management and ecosystem services assessments.National land use projections
A major scientific challenge in global change research is connecting coarse-scale global assessments, particularly those involving the projection of land use, to scales relevant and useful for analysis and management. We have downscaled land use projections from two global scenario frameworks, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)... - Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Land-use and Land-cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover for the State of California for the period 1970-2100. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In total 5 simulations wer - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horiAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. LovelandFilter Total Items: 25Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California
Study RegionWe created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA).Study FocusUnderstanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water managAuthorsN. Van Schmidt, Tamara S. Wilson, Ruth LangridgeLand-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, N. Van Schmidt, Ruth LangridgeLand-use change and future water demand in California’s central coast
Understanding future land-use related water demand is important for planners and resource managers in identifying potential shortages and crafting mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for regions dependent on limited local groundwater supplies. For the groundwater dependent Central Coast of California, we developed two scenarios of future land use and water demand based on sampling fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, N. Van Schmidt, Ruth LangridgeEffects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long time horiAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. LovelandIntegrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change
State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response toAuthorsColin J. Daniel, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Leonardo Frid, Marie-Josée FortinFuture scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land useAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Tamara S. Wilson, Ethan Sharygin, Jason T. SherbaMediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard CameronMediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit fAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard CameronProjecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residentsAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Nathan J. Wood, Christopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. WilsonBaseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main Hawaiian islands in two time periods: baseline (from 2007A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem
BackgroundCarbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scalAuthorsRachel Sleeter, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Brianna Williams, Dianna M. Hogan, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang ZhuFuture land-use related water demand in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developedAuthorsTamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard Cameron - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.