Paul Christopher Damian Milly (Former Employee)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 31
The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies
In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been...
Authors
M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. Donner, J. Dunne, Krista Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. Harris, L. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, Sergey Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. Wilson, M. Winton, A. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang
On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature
Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E)...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Jonghun Kam, Krista Dunne
Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction
Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made...
Authors
Sarah Kapnick, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas Delworth, Rich Gudgel, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Steven Margulis
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Martin Goldhaber, Julio Betancourt, Jill Baron, Sky Bristol, Mary Cantrill, Paul Exter, Michael Focazio, John Haines, Lauren Hay, Leslie Hsu, Victor Labson, Kevin Lafferty, K. Ludwig, Paul Milly, Toni Morelli, Suzette Morman, Nedal T. Nassar, Timothy R. Newman, Andrea Ostroff, Jordan Read, Sasha Reed, Carl Shapiro, Richard Smith, Ward Sanford, Terry Sohl, Edward Stets, Adam Terando, Donald Tillitt, Michael Tischler, Patricia Toccalino, David Wald, Mark Waldrop, Anne Wein, Jake Weltzin, Christian Zimmerman
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming
Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Justin Sheffield, Paul C.D. Milly
Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk...
Authors
Z. W. Kundzewicz, V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. Hattermann, S. Huang, Paul C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P.P.J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, H.-J. Schellnhuber
Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential...
Authors
Tanja N. Williamson, Elizabeth Nystrom, Paul C.D. Milly
Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Kirsten Findell, Benjamin Lintner, Alessandra Giannini, Sonia Seneviratne, Bart van den Hurk, Ruth Lorenz, Andy Pitman, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Frederique Cheruy, Agnes Ducharne, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Milly
Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying
By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Krista Dunne
Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble
We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and...
Authors
Ruth Lorenz, Daniel Argueso, Markus Donat, Andrew Pitman, Bart van den Hurk, Alexis Berg, David Lawrence, Frederique Cheruy, Agnes Ducharne, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Paul C.D. Milly, Sonia I Seneviratne
Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)
The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated...
Authors
Tanja N. Williamson, Jeremiah Lant, Peter Claggett, Elizabeth Nystrom, Paul C.D. Milly, Hugh Nelson, Scott Hoffman, Susan Colarullo, Jeffrey M. Fischer
On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?” On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?”
We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts.
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert Hirsch, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Dennis Lettenmaier, Ronald Stouffer, Michael Dettinger, Valentina Krysanova
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 31
The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies The GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model description, sensitivity studies, and tuning strategies
In Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been...
Authors
M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, I. Held, H. Guo, V. Balaji, R. Benson, J.-H. Chen, X. Chen, L. Donner, J. Dunne, Krista Dunne, J. Durachta, S.-M. Fan, S. M. Freidenreich, S. Garner, P. Ginoux, L. Harris, L. Horowitz, J. P. Krasting, A. Langenhorst, Z. Liang, P. Lin, S.-J. Lin, Sergey Malyshev, E. Mason, Paul C.D. Milly, Y. Ming, V. Naik, F. Paulot, D. Paynter, P. Phillipps, A. Radhakrishnan, V. Ramaswamy, T. Robinson, D. Schwarzkopf, C. J. Seman, Elena Shevliakova, Z. Shen, H. Shin, L. Silvers, J. Wilson, M. Winton, A. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, B. Xiang
On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature
Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E)...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Jonghun Kam, Krista Dunne
Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction
Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made...
Authors
Sarah Kapnick, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas Delworth, Rich Gudgel, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Milly, Elena Shevliakova, Seth Underwood, Steven Margulis
Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Martin Goldhaber, Julio Betancourt, Jill Baron, Sky Bristol, Mary Cantrill, Paul Exter, Michael Focazio, John Haines, Lauren Hay, Leslie Hsu, Victor Labson, Kevin Lafferty, K. Ludwig, Paul Milly, Toni Morelli, Suzette Morman, Nedal T. Nassar, Timothy R. Newman, Andrea Ostroff, Jordan Read, Sasha Reed, Carl Shapiro, Richard Smith, Ward Sanford, Terry Sohl, Edward Stets, Adam Terando, Donald Tillitt, Michael Tischler, Patricia Toccalino, David Wald, Mark Waldrop, Anne Wein, Jake Weltzin, Christian Zimmerman
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming
Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Justin Sheffield, Paul C.D. Milly
Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk...
Authors
Z. W. Kundzewicz, V. Krysanova, R. Dankers, Y. Hirabayashi, S. Kanae, F. Hattermann, S. Huang, Paul C.D. Milly, M. Stoffel, P.P.J. Driessen, P. Matczak, P. Quevauviller, H.-J. Schellnhuber
Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration Sensitivity of the projected hydroclimatic environment of the Delaware River basin to formulation of potential evapotranspiration
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) encompasses approximately 0.4 % of the area of the United States (U.S.), but supplies water to 5 % of the population. We studied three forested tributaries to quantify the potential climate-driven change in hydrologic budget for two 25-year time periods centered on 2030 and 2060, focusing on sensitivity to the method of estimating potential...
Authors
Tanja N. Williamson, Elizabeth Nystrom, Paul C.D. Milly
Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, Ep) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for...
Authors
Alexis Berg, Kirsten Findell, Benjamin Lintner, Alessandra Giannini, Sonia Seneviratne, Bart van den Hurk, Ruth Lorenz, Andy Pitman, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Frederique Cheruy, Agnes Ducharne, Sergey Malyshev, Paul Milly
Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying
By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate...
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Krista Dunne
Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble
We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and...
Authors
Ruth Lorenz, Daniel Argueso, Markus Donat, Andrew Pitman, Bart van den Hurk, Alexis Berg, David Lawrence, Frederique Cheruy, Agnes Ducharne, Stefan Hagemann, Arndt Meier, Paul C.D. Milly, Sonia I Seneviratne
Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)
The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated...
Authors
Tanja N. Williamson, Jeremiah Lant, Peter Claggett, Elizabeth Nystrom, Paul C.D. Milly, Hugh Nelson, Scott Hoffman, Susan Colarullo, Jeffrey M. Fischer
On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?” On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?”
We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts.
Authors
Paul C.D. Milly, Julio Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert Hirsch, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Dennis Lettenmaier, Ronald Stouffer, Michael Dettinger, Valentina Krysanova