Sarah Shafer
Science and Products
Exploring Future Flora, Environments, and Climates Through Simulations (EFFECTS)
Climate changes can significantly affect species and ecosystems. Historical and paleoenvironmental data record species and ecosystem responses to past climate changes, but these records become sparse as one goes further back in time. Model simulations can be used fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed records to improve our understanding of the potential magnitude, rate, and spatial...
A Visualization Approach for Projecting Future Climate Distributions in North America
Conservation and natural resource managers require information about potential future climate changes for the areas they manage, in terms that are relevant for the specific biotic and environmental resources likely to be affected by climate change. We produced a suite of data sets that provide managers with climate and climate-derived data and a visualization approach that allows managers to...
Assessing the Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest
To develop effective adaptive management plans, conservation and natural resource managers need to know how climate change will affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This project provides managers with information about potential climate change effects on species and managed areas in the Pacific Northwest. We evaluated projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species...
Biomes simulated by BIOME4 using CESM2 lig127k, midHolocene, and piControl climate data on a global 0.5-degree grid
This data set consists of simulated biomes for the last interglacial (127 ka), middle Holocene (6 ka), and preindustrial (1850 CE) time periods displayed in Figure 14 of Otto-Bliesner et al. (2020). Biomes were simulated with BIOME4 (ver. 4.2, https://pmip2.lsce.ipsl.fr/synth/biome4.shtml; Kaplan et al., 2003,...
Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.
Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate...
Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T. Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes
Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-...
Bartlein, P. J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V Comparing ecoregional classifications for natural areas management in the Klamath Region, USA
We compared three existing ecoregional classification schemes (Bailey, Omernik, and World Wildlife Fund) with two derived schemes (Omernik Revised and Climate Zones) to explore their effectiveness in explaining species distributions and to better understand natural resource geography in the Klamath Region, USA. We analyzed presence/absence data...
Sarr, Daniel A.; Duff, Andrew; Dinger, Eric C.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Wing, Michael; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Alexander, John D.
Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America: Revisions for all taxa from the United States and Canada and new taxa from the western United States
This is the seventh volume in an atlas series that explores the relations between the geographic distributions of woody plant species and climatic variables in North America. A 25-kilometer (km) equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic variables was constructed from weather data. The geographic distributions of selected tree and shrub...
Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; McFadden, Andrew K. Water resources: Implications of changes in temperature and precipitation: Chapter 3
No abstract available.
Raymondi, Rick R.; Cuhaciyan, Jennifer E.; Glick, Patty; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Shafer, Sarah; Grah, Oliver Coasts: Complex changes affecting the Northwest's diverse shorelines
No abstract available.
Reeder, W. Spencer; Ruggiero; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty; Newton, Jan; Capalbo, Susan M. The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A tool for incorporating climate change into natural resource management
As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a...
Cross, Molly S.; Zavaleta, Erika S.; Bachelet, Dominique; Brooks, Marjorie L.; Enquist, Carolyn A.F.; Fleishman, Erica; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Groves, Craig R.; Hannah, Lee; Hansen, Lara J.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Koopman, Marni; Lawler, Joshua J.; Malcolm, Jay; Nordgren, John R.; Petersen, Brian; Rowland, Erika; Scott, Daniel; Shafer, Sarah L.; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Tabor, Gary
U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative-2009 Annual Report
This is the second report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. The first report described work activities for 2007 and 2008; this report covers work activities conducted in 2009. Important differences between the two reports are that (1) this report...
Bowen, Zachary H.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Assal, Timothy J.; Biewick, Laura R. H.; Blecker, Steven W.; Bristol, R. Sky; Carr, Natasha B.; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Chong, Geneva W.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Fedy, Bradley C.; Garman, Steven L.; Germaine, Stephen S.; Grauch, Richard I.; Holloway, JoAnn M.; Homer, Collin G.; Kauffman, Matthew; Keinath, Douglas; Latysh, Natalie; Manier, Daniel J.; McDougal, Robert R.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Miller, Kirk A.; Montag, Jessica; Nutt, Constance J.; Potter, Christopher J.; Sawyer, Hall; Schell, Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Smith, David B.; Stillings, Lisa L.; Tuttle, Michele L.; Wilson, Anna B.
U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative
Southwest Wyoming's wildlife and habitat resources are increasingly affected by energy and urban/exurban development, climate change, and other key drivers of ecosystem change. To ensure that southwest Wyoming's wildlife populations and habitats persist in the face of development and other changes, a consortium of public resource-management...
Bowen, Zachary H.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Anderson, Patrick J.; Chong, Geneva W.; Drummond, Mark A.; Homer, Collin G.; Johnson, Ronald C.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Knick, Steven T.; Kosovich, John J.; Miller, Kirk A.; Owens, Tom; Shafer, Sarah L.; Sweat, Michael J. Vital signs monitoring plan for the Klamath Network: Phase I report
This report chronicles the Phase 1 stage of the vital signs monitoring program for the Klamath Network. It consists of two chapters and eleven appendixes. The purposes of Chapter One are to 1) describe the network administrative structure and approach to planning; 2) introduce the Klamath Network parks, their resources, and environmental settings...
Sarr, Daniel; Odion, Dennis; Truitt, Robert E.; Beever, Erik A.; Shafer, Sarah; Duff, Andrew; Smith, Sean B.; Bunn, Windy; Rocchio, Judy; Sarnat, Eli; Alexander, John; Jessup, Steve