Toni Lyn Morelli is a Research Ecologist at the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, where she uses field studies, ecological modeling, genetics, and translational ecology to help resource managers conserve species in the face of global change.
Toni Lyn grew up near Detroit and received a B.S. in Zoology from Michigan State University. For her Ph.D. at Stony Brook University, she studied lemur behavior, ecology, and genetics in Madagascar. After her Ph.D., Toni Lyn worked as a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley to understand how climate change had affected small mammals and montane meadows over the last century. She has also worked for the U.S. Forest Service, both as a research ecologist at the Pacific Southwest Research Station and as the Technical Advisor to the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Toni Lyn uses translational ecology, species distribution modeling, occupancy modeling, geospatial analysis, population and landscape genetics techniques, and decision analysis to facilitate natural resource management and habitat and species conservation in the face of climate and land use change and invasive species. Current projects include studying the impacts of climate change in boreal ecosystems; helping the National Park Service update its taxonomy and analyze citizen science data; organizing a continent-wide network on Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management; and a continued focus on operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Stony Brook University
B.S. in Zoology, Michigan State University
Affiliations and Memberships*
Member of the USGS EMA DEIA Leadership Council, 2022
Member of the NECASC Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Committee, 2021-2022
Leader of the USGS CASC DEIA Recruitment and Retention Working Group, 2021-2022
Member of the USGS CASC Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Accessibility (DEIA) Leadership Council, 2020-2022
Co-Leader of the CASC Inclusive Mentoring Working Group, 2021-2022
Associate Editor for Conservation Science & Practice, 2018-2022; recognized as 1 of 2 top CSP AEs
Member of the American Geophysical Union
Member of The Ecological Society of America
Member of the Society of Conservation Biology
Member of The Wildlife Society
Honors and Awards
Association of Fish & Wildlife Agencies Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Broad Participation (to NE Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network)
University of Massachusetts Department of Environmental Conservation (ECo) Inaugural Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Justice Faculty Award, 2021
USFWS Species Support Partnership (NE Region) Research Grant, 2021-2023
USGS Natural Resources Preservation Program (NE Region) Research Grant, 2019-21
USGS Ecosystems Mission Area Invasive Species Program Research Grant, 2020-2022
National Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant (co-I), 2020-2022
Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Research Grant, 2019-2020
USGS-NPS Natural Resource Preservation Partnership, 2019-2020
Second Century Stewardship Fellowship 2018 (Postdoctoral Supervisee)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2017 (Co-PI)
Community for Data Integration, USGS, 2018 (Co-PI)
National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants 2017 Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources (awarded to the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool Partnership)
YES Internship Awards (x2), USGS, 2017
USGS STAR Award, 2016
National Park Service Grant, Bioblitz Analysis, 2016
Science and Products
A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.
Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes
Vernal Pool Inundation Models
A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
A Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems
Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Automating the use of citizen scientists’ biodiversity surveys in iNaturalist to facilitate early detection of species’ responses to climate change
Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S.
Webinar: How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”
Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 15
A Regional Synthesis of Climate Data to Inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.
The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies.” SWAPs assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and t...Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes
Society makes substantial investments in federal, Tribal, state, and private programs to supplement populations of valued species such as stocking fish, planting trees, rebuilding oyster reefs, and restoring prairies. These important efforts require long-term commitment, but climate change is making environmental conditions less predictable and more challenging to navigate. Selection of species foVernal Pool Inundation Models
This website provides an application for exploring modeling results from a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) project titled Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. The purpose of this project was to improve understanding of the factors that control inundation patterns in vernal pools of the northeastern United States, so as to identify pools that might function as...A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy
Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to acA Synthesis of Climate Change Refugia Science and Management Actions to Inform Climate Adaptation in the Southwest
The impacts of climate change are widespread and accelerating. It is daunting for resource managers to determine how to use increasingly limited staff time and funding to conserve species and ecosystems. The Refugia Research Coalition is a national framework that brings together researchers and managers to identify and develop conservation strategies for “climate change refugia”, areas that remain...Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment
Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” ma...Increasing the Resilience and Resistance of Climate-Vulnerable Species and Ecosystems
The northeastern U.S. is highly exposed to climate change; in fact, the rate of change is higher than most places on earth (Karmalkar and Bradley 2017). The forests of the Northeast CASC region, and the wildlife that inhabit them, are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In particular, the boreal forests, a biome that reaches from Alaska to the Northeast, and the northern hardwoodsUnderstanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review
Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and notAutomating the use of citizen scientists’ biodiversity surveys in iNaturalist to facilitate early detection of species’ responses to climate change
A BioBlitz is a field survey method for finding and documenting as many species as possible in a specific area over a short period. The National Park Service and National Geographic Society hosted the largest BioBlitz survey ever in 2016; people in more than 120 national parks used the iNaturalist app on mobile devices to document organisms they observed. Resulting records have Global PositioningMapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S.
Vernal pools are small, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important seasonal habitat for many amphibian species of conservation concern. Natural resource managers and scientists in the Northeast, as well as the Northeast Refugia Research Coalition, coordinated by the Northeast CSC, recently identified vernal pools as a priority ecosystem to study, and recent revisions to State Wildlife ActWebinar: How to Prioritize Key Areas for Conservation Efforts in a Changing Climate: A Look at “Climate Refugia”
View this webinar to learn more about climate change refugia.Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP)
This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to th - Data
- Multimedia
- Publications
- News
*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government