Quantitative Modeling
Quantitative Modeling
A requirement for managing a species, be it a common native species, a species of conservation concern, or an invasive species, is having some information on its distribution and potential drivers of distribution. Branch scientists have been tackling the question of where these types of species are and where they might be in the future. Focus species are as varied as the invasive tamarisk, Russian olive, Africanized honey bee and nutria to the federally threatened Lesser Prairie chicken and others. These and other species are modeled at a variety of spatial scales, from park or wildlife refuge to global levels. Models use various predictor layers that can include current and future climate layers (near- and long-term projections), remote-sensing derivatives (such as MODIS phenology metrics), land cover, topography, and anthropogenic features.
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Developing habitat models for rare plants to inform decision making on multiple-use public lands
Public lands provide important habitat for many rare plants. However, public lands often need to accommodate many other uses, including traditional and renewable energy development, in addition to conservation. We are working with the Bureau of Land Management to coproduce ensemble habitat suitability models that can inform agency planning and permitting decisions that may impact rare plants.
Gunnison Sage-grouse Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET)
In partnership with the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, and other partners, scientists from USGS Fort Collins Science Center are working to create a suite of prioritization scenarios that will inform adaptive management for Gunnison sage-grouse.
INHABIT: A web-based decision support tool for invasive plant species habitat visualization and assessment across the contiguous United States
Many managers are hampered by the scope of the invasive species problem compared to their available resources. Habitat suitability models of invaders can help fill this resource gap, helping with activities such as watch list compilation and targeted surveillance and eradication efforts.
Modeling Songbird Density-Habitat Relationships to Predict Population Responses to Environmental Change Within Pinyon-juniper and Sagebrush Ecosystems
Within areas of overlapping sagebrush and pinyon-juniper ecosystems, wildlife populations are declining due to habitat fragmentation and degradation, changing climate, and human development. However, management to bolster species associated with one ecosystem may result in negative consequences for species associated with the other. Thus, land managers are challenged with balancing which system to...
Linking post-fire sagebrush restoration and sage-grouse habitat recovery
Many revegetation projects are intended to benefit focal wildlife species. Yet, few scope the ability of revegetation efforts to yield habitat. To investigate the ability of alternative sagebrush planting strategies to recover habitat conditions for wildlife like sage-grouse, USGS and Colorado State University scientists developed a spatial vegetation-habitat recovery model . Scientists combined...
Prioritizing sagebrush protection and restoration within the upper Colorado River Basin
Arid shrublands of western North America face growing threats from disturbances such as wildfire, drought, and invasive species. These threats are increasingly altering the sagebrush ( Artemisia species) biome and degrading habitat for species of conservation concern such as greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ). Effective management and restoration are needed to slow or reverse these...
Understanding the use of habitat models for managing and conserving rare plants on western public lands
The use of rare plant habitat models in land management decisions can be constrained by issues surrounding data access, model quality, and institutional capacity, among other factors. This project seeks to understand challenges associated with using habitat models and explore avenues for addressing these challenges to facilitate greater use of habitat models in public lands decision making.
Hierarchical Population Monitoring Framework for Greater Sage-Grouse
Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) are at the center of state and national land use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. Researchers within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Colorado State University (CSU) worked with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and state wildlife agencies to develop a...
Fostering greater use of habitat models for managing rare and invasive plants on public lands
Habitat models can provide critical information on the current and potential distribution of plant species, as well as help target and support conservation efforts. Despite their potential utility in public land management, model use may be constrained by a variety of factors including staff access to and trust in models. In this project, we seek to bring together model users and model developers...
Developing science syntheses to facilitate climate-informed land management decisions and NEPA analyses on rangelands in the sagebrush biome
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal public land managers to assess potential environmental impacts of proposed actions. The USGS, Bureau of Land Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Colorado State University, and North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center are working together to develop science syntheses that can facilitate considerations of climate change in...
Road Ecology
Roads and their associated infrastructure can cause substantial and pervasive effects on adjacent ecosystems but are necessary for the movement and redistribution of goods, people, wealth, and natural resources in modern societies. The Fort Collins Science Center has initiated research looking at how roads and traffic may be impacting sagebrush ecosystems and the wildlife inhabiting them. This...
Predicting Recovery of Sagebrush Ecosystems Across the Sage-grouse Range from Remotely Sensed Vegetation Data
USGS researchers are using remote-sensing and other broadscale datasets to study and predict recovery of sagebrush across the sage-grouse range, assessing influence of disturbance, restoration treatments, soil moisture, and other ecological conditions on trends in sagebrush cover. The results will be used to inform conservation prioritization models, economic analyses, climate change projections...