The SAFRR project’s second scenario, called ARkStorm, addresses massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861–62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The SAFRR project assembled experts from scientific research agencies to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical storm scenario hitting both northern and southern California. The wind, precipitation and flooding, and coastal hazards were translated into physical, environmental, social, and economic damages to provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible.
The ARkStorm scenario was released at the ARkStorm Summit, a two day conference in Sacramento (January 2011), where 250 invited guests from the public and private sector joined together to take action as a result of the scenario’s findings.
Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication Contributions
Anne Wein coordinated analyses of exposed populations, agricultural impacts (leveraging the Delta Risk Management Strategy methods) and economic consequences (figs. 1 and 2) and sensitivity analyses of damages, reconstruction funding, and resilience strategies (with university collaborators). WGSC team members (Jeff Peters, Jamie Jones, Rachel Sleeter, a visiting scholar, and a contractor) provided the GIS and mapping support for analyses of highway damages and capacity, numbers and profiles of flooded populations (fig. 3), and flooded agricultural lands (fig. 4).
Below are publications associated with this project.
Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario
Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California
Overview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
- Overview
The SAFRR project’s second scenario, called ARkStorm, addresses massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861–62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The SAFRR project assembled experts from scientific research agencies to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical storm scenario hitting both northern and southern California. The wind, precipitation and flooding, and coastal hazards were translated into physical, environmental, social, and economic damages to provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible.
The ARkStorm scenario was released at the ARkStorm Summit, a two day conference in Sacramento (January 2011), where 250 invited guests from the public and private sector joined together to take action as a result of the scenario’s findings.
Hazards Societal Consequences and Risk Communication Contributions
Anne Wein coordinated analyses of exposed populations, agricultural impacts (leveraging the Delta Risk Management Strategy methods) and economic consequences (figs. 1 and 2) and sensitivity analyses of damages, reconstruction funding, and resilience strategies (with university collaborators). WGSC team members (Jeff Peters, Jamie Jones, Rachel Sleeter, a visiting scholar, and a contractor) provided the GIS and mapping support for analyses of highway damages and capacity, numbers and profiles of flooded populations (fig. 3), and flooded agricultural lands (fig. 4).
Figures 1 and 2. ARkStorm impacts on the trajectory of semi-annual real GDP (1) and semi-annual losses and recovery relative to pre-event GDP (2). (Credit: Anne Wein, USGS. Public domain.) Figure 3. Difference in population concentrations in and out of the ARkStorm flood zone. Note: counties ordered by percentage of the county population that is flooded, with only statistically significant difference in population proportions displayed. (Credit: Anne Wein, USGS. Public domain.) Figure 4. ARkStorm flood duration (days) and proportions of estimated agriculture losses where perennial crop losses dominate the losses. * Delta Island inset shows results for islands with losses for two years only. (Credit: Jeff Peters, USGS. Public domain.) - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario
Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mappiAuthorsAnne Wein, Jamie L. Ratliff, Allan Baez, Rachel SleeterAgricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California
Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennAuthorsAnne Wein, David Mitchell, Jeff Peters, John Rowden, Johnny Tran, Alessandra Corsi, Laura B. DinitzOverview of the ARkStorm scenario
The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to
AuthorsKeith Porter, Anne Wein, Charles N. Alpers, Allan Baez, Patrick L. Barnard, James Carter, Alessandra Corsi, James Costner, Dale Cox, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger, James Done, Charles Eadie, Marcia Eymann, Justin Ferris, Prasad Gunturi, Mimi Hughes, Robert Jarrett, Laurie Johnson, Hanh Dam Le-Griffin, David Mitchell, Suzette Morman, Paul Neiman, Anna Olsen, Suzanne Perry, Geoffrey Plumlee, Martin Ralph, David Reynolds, Adam Rose, Kathleen Schaefer, Julie Serakos, William Siembieda, Jonathan D. Stock, David Strong, Ian Sue Wing, Alex Tang, Pete Thomas, Ken Topping, Chris Wills, Lucile JonesByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Earthquake Hazards Program, Science Application for Risk Reduction, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Big Sur Landslides, Reducing Risk, San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary