The 2004 Indian Ocean, 2010 Chilean, and 2011 Tohoku disasters have shown how tsunamis are significant threats to coastal communities. To help U.S. coastal communities prepare for future tsunamis, the Hazards Vulnerability Team completed projects related to population exposure and sensitivity, pedestrian evacuation modeling, and vertical-evacuation decision support.
A recent article of ours in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences captures many aspects of our tsunami-related research. Focusing on tsunamis associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the article integrates GIS methods to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, evacuation modeling to estimate travel times to safety, and cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. Results can be used to enhance general tsunami-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.
- How many people live and work in tsunami-zones in my community?
- Will people have enough time to evacuate before tsunami waves arrive?
- If people don’t have enough time to evacuate to high ground, where can vertical-evacuation refuges be built?
- How can GIS be used to map hot-spots of community exposure to tsunami hazards?
- Can we identify and map certain types of people that may have greater difficulty preparing, responding, and recovering from tsunamis?
- How can technical expertise be integrated with local input to better understand how coastal communities are vulnerable to tsunami hazards?
- How do people perceive the risks posed by tsunami hazards along the Pacific Northwest coast?
- How prepared is the nation for future tsunamis, in terms of the tsunami warning system and community readiness?
How many people live and work in tsunami-zones in my community?
- We have used geospatial tools to estimate the number and type of people, businesses, and land cover in the maximum tsunami-hazard zones of Oregon, Hawaii,California, and the open-ocean coast of Washington. In each report, coastal communities within a State are compared in terms of the number and community percentage of populations and assets in tsunami-hazard zones. This information helps public officials understand the scope and breadth of vulnerability issues in their community, but also across multiple jurisdictions.
- We also examined population vulnerability and evacuation issues related to the SAFFR tsunami scenario, which focuses on impacts along the California coast from a distant Alaskan earthquake.
Will people have enough time to evacuate before tsunami waves arrive?
- In collaboration with Sacramento State University, we completed evacuation modeling in southwest Washington related to Cascadia threats, including a study on model development and sensitivity and an assessment of population exposure in several Washington communities as a function of travel time to safety.
- Our pedestrian evacuation modeling for Westport, Washington, was featured in a 2014 issue of National Geographic.
- We did pedestrian evacuation modeling in Seward, Alaska, to examine modern evacuation potential to tsunami hazards but looked also at historic conditions prior to the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster.
- To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
In collaboration with the State of Washington Emergency Management Division and Sacramento State University, we integrated evacuation modeling and results of community workshops to develop a framework for deciding how to compare vertical-evacuation refuge options. As a case study, we demonstrate this decision support for the coastal community of Ocean Shores, Washington, which is threatened by local tsunamis associated with Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes.
How can GIS be used to map hot-spots of community exposure to tsunami hazards?
- We demonstrated how to use midresolution land-cover data to estimate and compare community exposure to tsunami-hazards along the Oregon coast. This approach could be useful in determining where to allocate disaster response and relief resources over large areas when time does not allow for detailed socioeconomic analysis.
- We have demonstrated how to use a wide range of hazard and societal data in one coastal community to identify and map potential vulnerability hot-spots. This helps local officials target sites for risk-reduction efforts.
- We’ve used dasymetric mapping techniques to better map population exposure to tsunami hazards. This is useful for providing a more realistic distribution of people in hazard zones than relying on coarser census units.
In collaboration with the University of South Carolina, we combined geospatial tools with statistical factor analysis to understand and map hot-spots of demographic sensitivity to Cascadia tsunamis along the Oregon coast. This information can be used to develop targeted outreach and preparedness training that address local needs.
- We held a community workshop in Newport, Oregon, to collectively assess societal impacts and risk-reduction opportunities for a Cascadia tsunami hazard. The workshop demonstrated the importance of integrating technical expertise on earthquake and tsunami processes with local perspectives of risk and community values.
- Another community workshop in collaboration with the University of Oregon was held in Cannon Beach, Oregon, to discuss post-disaster recovery planning from a Cascadia tsunami.
How do people perceive the risks posed by tsunami hazards along the Pacific Northwest coast?
- Public officials and key private sector individuals in Oregon and Washington coastal communities were asked in 2001 to reflect on the perceived risk to Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis. A key finding was that although hazard awareness was high, few individuals had taken steps to reduce their vulnerabilities.
- In collaboration with East Tennessee State University, survivors in American Samoa from the 2009 Samoan tsunami disaster were interviewed to better understand people’s ability to self-initiate evacuations from tsunamis. We were interested in learning about how individuals knew to take self-protective action and what influenced that decision making process.
- USGS research geographer Nathan Wood was a member of a recent National Research Council committee asked to review of U.S. tsunami warning system and national preparedness to tsunamis. The report covers recommendations for hazard and vulnerability assessments, tsunami detection, warning dissemination, and community preparedness.
- Related, Dr. Wood was asked by the Los Angeles Times to write an opinion piece on the readiness of West Coast communities immediately after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami disaster.
Below are data releases and dashboards that support tsunami research published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Pedestrian tsunami evacuation results for three California probabilistic tsunami hazard zones and four travel speeds (shapefiles) and impaired walk travel times for all zones by parcel land-use and flow depth class (tables)
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
Below are publications on tsunamis authored by Hazard Vulnerability Team scientists.
Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa
Pedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Community exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Community clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
Getting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis
Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Below are data releases and dashboards that support tsunami research published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Oahu Tsunami Evacuation Dashboard
Tsunami waves created by earthquakes far from Hawai’i arrive hours later along Hawaiian shorelines but can be difficult to escape if everyone uses their cars to evacuate. Working with the Hawai’i Emergency Management Agency, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used computer modeling to identify areas where people should be able to evacuate on foot in less than 15 minutes.
Below are software tools developed by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is an ArcGIS extension that estimates how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a hazardous area that was threatened by a sudden event such as a tsunami, flash flood, or volcanic lahar. It takes into account the elevation changes and the different types of landcover that a person would encounter along the way.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners that work with the Hazards Vulnerablity Team.
- Overview
The 2004 Indian Ocean, 2010 Chilean, and 2011 Tohoku disasters have shown how tsunamis are significant threats to coastal communities. To help U.S. coastal communities prepare for future tsunamis, the Hazards Vulnerability Team completed projects related to population exposure and sensitivity, pedestrian evacuation modeling, and vertical-evacuation decision support.
A recent article of ours in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences captures many aspects of our tsunami-related research. Focusing on tsunamis associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the article integrates GIS methods to identify the number and characteristics of people in hazard zones, evacuation modeling to estimate travel times to safety, and cluster analysis to classify communities with similar vulnerability. Results can be used to enhance general tsunami-awareness efforts with targeted interventions, such as education and outreach tailored to local demographics, evacuation training, and/or vertical evacuation refuges.
- How many people live and work in tsunami-zones in my community?
- Will people have enough time to evacuate before tsunami waves arrive?
- If people don’t have enough time to evacuate to high ground, where can vertical-evacuation refuges be built?
- How can GIS be used to map hot-spots of community exposure to tsunami hazards?
- Can we identify and map certain types of people that may have greater difficulty preparing, responding, and recovering from tsunamis?
- How can technical expertise be integrated with local input to better understand how coastal communities are vulnerable to tsunami hazards?
- How do people perceive the risks posed by tsunami hazards along the Pacific Northwest coast?
- How prepared is the nation for future tsunamis, in terms of the tsunami warning system and community readiness?
How many people live and work in tsunami-zones in my community?
- We have used geospatial tools to estimate the number and type of people, businesses, and land cover in the maximum tsunami-hazard zones of Oregon, Hawaii,California, and the open-ocean coast of Washington. In each report, coastal communities within a State are compared in terms of the number and community percentage of populations and assets in tsunami-hazard zones. This information helps public officials understand the scope and breadth of vulnerability issues in their community, but also across multiple jurisdictions.
- We also examined population vulnerability and evacuation issues related to the SAFFR tsunami scenario, which focuses on impacts along the California coast from a distant Alaskan earthquake.
Maps of the California maximum tsunami-inundation zone and land-cover data from the 2006 National Land Cover Database for (A) Crescent City, (B) Eureka, and (C) Belvedere. (Public domain.) Will people have enough time to evacuate before tsunami waves arrive?
- In collaboration with Sacramento State University, we completed evacuation modeling in southwest Washington related to Cascadia threats, including a study on model development and sensitivity and an assessment of population exposure in several Washington communities as a function of travel time to safety.
- Our pedestrian evacuation modeling for Westport, Washington, was featured in a 2014 issue of National Geographic.
- We did pedestrian evacuation modeling in Seward, Alaska, to examine modern evacuation potential to tsunami hazards but looked also at historic conditions prior to the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster.
- To help others do their own pedestrian-evacuation modeling, we’ve created a GIS tool.
Maps showing pedestrian travel times across the Long Beach Peninsula, Washington, based on an anisotropic modeling approach and various data sets. a Shows results of the anisotropic using 1-m elevation data and 1-m land-cover data. b–d Show the difference at each grid cell between a and b 1-m elevation and 30-m NLCD data, c 10-m elevation and 1-m land-cover data, and d 10-m elevation and 30-m NLCD data. (Public domain.) In collaboration with the State of Washington Emergency Management Division and Sacramento State University, we integrated evacuation modeling and results of community workshops to develop a framework for deciding how to compare vertical-evacuation refuge options. As a case study, we demonstrate this decision support for the coastal community of Ocean Shores, Washington, which is threatened by local tsunamis associated with Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes.
Maps of Ocean Shores showing modeled pedestrian travel times to safety (assuming a slow walking speed) for a tsunami zone associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. The first map also show potential vertical evacuation sites identified by community members. The second series of maps show modeled travel times to safety based on the construction of each refuge. Waves are estimated to arrive approximately 25 minutes after generation. (Public domain.) How can GIS be used to map hot-spots of community exposure to tsunami hazards?
Map of Newport, Oregon that shows where there are societal assets and natural hazards associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and tsunami. (Public domain.) - We demonstrated how to use midresolution land-cover data to estimate and compare community exposure to tsunami-hazards along the Oregon coast. This approach could be useful in determining where to allocate disaster response and relief resources over large areas when time does not allow for detailed socioeconomic analysis.
- We have demonstrated how to use a wide range of hazard and societal data in one coastal community to identify and map potential vulnerability hot-spots. This helps local officials target sites for risk-reduction efforts.
- We’ve used dasymetric mapping techniques to better map population exposure to tsunami hazards. This is useful for providing a more realistic distribution of people in hazard zones than relying on coarser census units.
Map of Seaside, Oregon, that shows statistical results of a social vulnerability index, which identifies relative areas of heightened demographic sensitivity to a tsunami (blue line) associated with a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. (Public domain.) In collaboration with the University of South Carolina, we combined geospatial tools with statistical factor analysis to understand and map hot-spots of demographic sensitivity to Cascadia tsunamis along the Oregon coast. This information can be used to develop targeted outreach and preparedness training that address local needs.
A photograph of a 2006 community workshop held in Cannon Beach, Oregon, to discuss post-disaster community recovery from a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake and tsunami. (Public domain.) - We held a community workshop in Newport, Oregon, to collectively assess societal impacts and risk-reduction opportunities for a Cascadia tsunami hazard. The workshop demonstrated the importance of integrating technical expertise on earthquake and tsunami processes with local perspectives of risk and community values.
- Another community workshop in collaboration with the University of Oregon was held in Cannon Beach, Oregon, to discuss post-disaster recovery planning from a Cascadia tsunami.
How do people perceive the risks posed by tsunami hazards along the Pacific Northwest coast?
- Public officials and key private sector individuals in Oregon and Washington coastal communities were asked in 2001 to reflect on the perceived risk to Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis. A key finding was that although hazard awareness was high, few individuals had taken steps to reduce their vulnerabilities.
- In collaboration with East Tennessee State University, survivors in American Samoa from the 2009 Samoan tsunami disaster were interviewed to better understand people’s ability to self-initiate evacuations from tsunamis. We were interested in learning about how individuals knew to take self-protective action and what influenced that decision making process.
- USGS research geographer Nathan Wood was a member of a recent National Research Council committee asked to review of U.S. tsunami warning system and national preparedness to tsunamis. The report covers recommendations for hazard and vulnerability assessments, tsunami detection, warning dissemination, and community preparedness.
- Related, Dr. Wood was asked by the Los Angeles Times to write an opinion piece on the readiness of West Coast communities immediately after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami disaster.
- Data
Below are data releases and dashboards that support tsunami research published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Pedestrian tsunami evacuation results for three California probabilistic tsunami hazard zones and four travel speeds (shapefiles) and impaired walk travel times for all zones by parcel land-use and flow depth class (tables)
These datasets supports the conclusions in the journal article entitled "Variations in community evacuation potential related to average return periods in probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis" as described in the abstract below: Tsunami risk management requires strategies that can address multiple sources with different recurrence intervals, wave-arrival times, and inundation extents. Probabilis - Multimedia
Below are multimedia items associated with this project.
- Publications
Below are publications on tsunamis authored by Hazard Vulnerability Team scientists.
Filter Total Items: 15Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: A case study of American Samoa
Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of post-disaster assessments in pedestrian eAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Yoshiki Yamazaki, Kwok-Fai Cheung, Jacinta Brown, Jamie Jones, Nina AbdollahianPedestrian evacuation modeling to reduce vehicle use for distant tsunami evacuations in Hawaiʻi
Tsunami waves that arrive hours after generation elsewhere pose logistical challenges to emergency managers due to the perceived abundance of time and inclination of evacuees to use vehicles. We use coastal communities on the island of Oʻahu (Hawaiʻi, USA) to demonstrate regional evacuation modeling that can identify where successful pedestrian-based evacuations are plausible and where vehicle useAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jamie Jones, Jeff Peters, Kevin RichardsProjecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residentsAuthorsBenjamin M. Sleeter, Nathan J. Wood, Christopher E. Soulard, Tamara S. WilsonCommunity disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones
Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize commAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Rick I. Wilson, Jamie L. Ratliff, Jeff Peters, Ed MacMullan, Tessa Krebs, Kimberley Shoaf, Kevin MillerInfluence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis
Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimatingAuthorsKevin Henry, Nathan J. Wood, Tim G. FrazierCommunity exposure to tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i
Hawai‘i has experienced numerous destructive tsunamis and the potential for future inundation has been described over the years using various historical events and scenarios. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in Hawai‘i, this study documents the variations among 91 coastal communities and 4 counties in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, residents, emplAuthorsJamie L. Jones, Matthew R. Jamieson, Nathan J. WoodBeat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA
Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), nor does it effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-theAuthorsGeorge R. Priest, Laura Stimely, Nathan J. Wood, Ian Madin, Rudie WatzigIntra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extenAuthorsJeff Peters, Nathan J. Wood, Rick Wilson, Kevin MillerCommunity clusters of tsunami vulnerability in the US Pacific Northwest
Many coastal communities throughout the world are threatened by local (or near-field) tsunamis that could inundate low-lying areas in a matter of minutes after generation. Although the hazard and sustainability literature often frames vulnerability conceptually as a multidimensional issue involving exposure, sensitivity, and resilience to a hazard, assessments often focus on one element or do notAuthorsNathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Seth Spielman, Mathew C. SchmidtleinGetting out of harm's way - evacuation from tsunamis
Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed a new mapping tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, for use by researchers and emergency managers to estimate how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a tsunami-hazard zone. The ArcGIS software extension, released in September 2014, allows the user to create maps showing travel times out of hazard zones and to detAuthorsJeanne M. Jones, Nathan J. Wood, Leslie C. GordonSensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions
Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coasAuthorsMathew C. Schmidtlein, Nathan J. WoodThe Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential
Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuationsAuthorsJeanne M. Jones, Peter Ng, Nathan J. Wood - Web Tools
Below are data releases and dashboards that support tsunami research published by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Oahu Tsunami Evacuation Dashboard
Tsunami waves created by earthquakes far from Hawai’i arrive hours later along Hawaiian shorelines but can be difficult to escape if everyone uses their cars to evacuate. Working with the Hawai’i Emergency Management Agency, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used computer modeling to identify areas where people should be able to evacuate on foot in less than 15 minutes.
- Software
Below are software tools developed by the Hazards Vulnerability Team.
Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool
The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is an ArcGIS extension that estimates how long it would take for someone to travel on foot out of a hazardous area that was threatened by a sudden event such as a tsunami, flash flood, or volcanic lahar. It takes into account the elevation changes and the different types of landcover that a person would encounter along the way.
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Partners
Below are partners that work with the Hazards Vulnerablity Team.