Caribbean Tsunami and Earthquake Hazards Studies
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. Plate movements have caused large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. The USGS has an ongoing program to identify and map the faults in this region using various geophysical and geological methods in order to estimate the location and magnitude of potential earthquakes.
Earthquakes and tsunamis in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and adjacent islands are mostly caused by the convergence of the North American tectonic plate with the Caribbean tectonic plate on which the islands are located. The rate at which these plates come together is similar to the rate at which a human fingernail grows.
Over a few hundreds or thousands of years several meters of motion accumulate resulting in occasional earthquakes and associated landslides and tsunamis. Puerto Rico’s rocky island crust and its surrounding seafloor are squeezed between the tectonic plates. The rocks are naturally full of fractures and faults and given enough push, some of these faults may move abruptly to relieve the stress; causing earthquakes. The USGS has an ongoing program to identify and map the faults in this region using various geophysical and geological methods in order to estimate the location and magnitude of potential earthquakes.
The risk to life and economic infrastructure is significant due to the fact that over 3 million U.S. citizens live along the coastlines of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. By determining the likely hazards and their causative mechanisms and providing this information to government agencies and the public, the USGS can aid in such activities as improvement of building codes, encouraging safer zoning, and assisting public education for response to hazards.
In the 20th century alone there have been several very large earthquakes north of Puerto Rico (Ms 7.3 in 1918; Ms 7.8 in 1943; Ms 8.0 in 1946 and four major aftershocks of Ms 7.6, 7.0, 7.3, 7.1 between 1946 and 1953). Large tsunamis have also hit Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reportedly killing 1800 people in 1946 and 40 people in 1918. Images of the slope north of Puerto Rico disclose massive slope failure scars, as much as 50 km across, that probably generated tsunamis along the north shore of the island. Other margins of the island (west, south, and south west) are also associated with massive tectonic features and may pose addtional hazard.
In the 20th century alone there have been several very large earthquakes north of Puerto Rico (Ms 7.3 in 1918; Ms 7.8 in 1943; Ms 8.0 in 1946 and four major aftershocks of Ms 7.6, 7.0, 7.3, 7.1 between 1946 and 1953). Large tsunamis have also hit Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reportedly killing 1800 people in 1946 and 40 people in 1918. Images of the slope north of Puerto Rico disclose massive slope failure scars, as much as 50 km across, that probably generated tsunamis along the north shore of the island. Other margins of the island (west, south, and south west) are also associated with massive tectonic features and may pose addtional hazard.
The Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, with water depths exceeding 8,300 meters. Its depth is comparable to the deep trenches in the Pacific Ocean. Trenches in the Pacific are located in places where one tectonic plate subducts or slides under another one. The Puerto Rico Trench, in contrast, is located at a boundary between two plates that slide past each other with only a small component of subduction. The trench is less deep where the component of subduction is larger. The unusually deep sea floor is not limited to the trench, but also extends farther south toward Puerto Rico. The Puerto Rico Trench is also associated with the most negative gravity anomaly on earth, -380 milliGal, which indicates the presence of an active downward force. Finally, a thick limestone platform, which was originally deposited in flat layers near sea level, is now tilted northward at a uniform angle. Its northward edge is at a depth of 4,200 m, and its southern edge can be found on land in Puerto Rico at an elevation of a few hundred meters. Many tectonic models have been proposed to explain this geologically fascinating, tectonically active region; however, none has gained acceptance, and the region remains poorly understood, largely because its underwater location makes it difficult to study.
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands to its east, and eastern Hispaniola to its west, are located on an active plate boundary zone between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The Caribbean plate is roughly rectangular, and it slides eastward at about 2 cm/yr relative to the North American plate. Motion along its northern boundary (in the plate boundary zone region) is dominantly strike-slip (sideways motion between the plates), with a small component of subduction (one plate sinks under the other plate). In contrast, the Caribbean plate farther east overrides the North American plate, creating the island arc of the Lesser Antilles with its active volcanoes. There are no active volcanoes in Puerto Rico and virgin islands.
The geologic settings of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have created or contributed to several pressing societal issues related to human safety, environmental health, and economic development. Because the island lies on an active plate boundary, earthquakes are a constant threat, and the densely populated coastal areas are vulnerable to tsunamis. Erosion is a concern in many coastal areas, but is particularly serious to island economies that rely heavily on the tourist industry.
The region has high seismicity and large earthquakes. Examples include a magnitude 7.5 earthquake centered northwest of Puerto Rico in 1943, and magnitude 8.1 and 6.9 earthquakes north of Hispaniola in 1946 and 1953, respectively. Historically, other large earthquakes have also struck the area, such as one in 1787 (magnitude~8.1), possibly in the Puerto Rico Trench, and one in 1867 (magnitude~7.5) between St. Thomas ad St. Croix in the Anegada Trough. A draft U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard map places equal probability for damaging ground motion for Mayaguez in western Puerto Rico as for Seattle, Washington. Other Puerto Rican cities also have substantial risk.
The hazard from tsunamis is also apparent. Immediately after the 1946 earthquake, a tsunami struck northeastern Hispaniola and moved inland for several kilometers. Some reports indicate that nearly 1,800 people drowned. A 1918 magnitude 7.5 earthquake resulted in a tsunami that killed at least 40 people in northwestern Puerto Rico. Eyewitness reports of an 1867 Virgin Islands tsunami gave a maximum wave height of >7 m in Frederiksted, St. Croix, where a large naval vessel was left on top of a pier. Essentially, all of the known causes of tsunamis are present in the Caribbean -- earthquakes, submarine landslides, submarine volcanic eruptions, subaerial pyroclastic flows into the ocean, and major tsunamis called teletsunamis. Because of its high population density and extensive development near the coast, Puerto Rico has a significant risk for earthquakes and tsunamis
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Significant Earthquakes on a major fault system in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Lesser Antilles, 1500–2010: Implications for Seismic Hazard
Below are publications associated with this project.
Mysterious tsunami in the Caribbean Sea following the 2010 Haiti earthquake possibly generated by dynamically triggered early aftershocks
Dynamically triggered offshore aftershocks, caused by passing seismic waves from main shocks located on land, are currently not considered in tsunami warnings. The M7.0 2010 Haiti earthquake epicenter was located on land 27 km north of the Caribbean Sea and its focal mechanism was oblique strike-slip. Nevertheless, a tsunami recorded on a Caribbean Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (D
Plate interaction in the NE Caribbean subduction zone from continuous GPS observations
Kinematic similarities between the Sumatra and Puerto Rico Trenches highlight the potential for a mega-earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench and the generation of local and trans-Atlantic tsunamis. We used the horizontal components of continuous GPS (cGPS) measurements from 10 sites on NE Caribbean islands to evaluate strain accumulation along the North American (NA) - Caribbean (CA) plate bound
Accounts of damage from historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean to aid in the determination of their location and intensity magnitudes
Earthquakes have been documented in the northeastern Caribbean since the arrival of Columbus to the Americas; written accounts of these felt earthquakes exist in various parts of the world. To better understand the earthquake cycle in the Caribbean, the records of earthquakes in earlier catalogs and historical documents from various archives, which are now available online, were critically examine
Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region
We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Isl
Tsunami simulations of the 1867 Virgin Island earthquake: Constraints on epicenter location and fault parameters
The 18 November 1867 Virgin Island earthquake and the tsunami that closely followed caused considerable loss of life and damage in several places in the northeast Caribbean region. The earthquake was likely a manifestation of the complex tectonic deformation of the Anegada Passage, which cuts across the Antilles island arc between the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In this article, we att
Gravity modeling of the Muertos Trough and tectonic implications (north-eastern Caribbean)
The Muertos Trough in the northeast Caribbean has been interpreted as a subduction zone from seismicity, leading to infer a possible reversal subduction polarity. However, the distribution of the seismicity is very diffuse and makes definition of the plate geometry difficult. In addition, the compressive deformational features observed in the upper crust and sandbox kinematic modeling do not neces
Extension in Mona Passage, Northeast Caribbean
As shown by the recent Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake, intra-arc deformation, which accompanies the subduction process, can present seismic and tsunami hazards to nearby islands. Spatially-limited diffuse tectonic deformation within the Northeast Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone likely led to the development of the submerged Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. GPS geodetic data and
Morphotectonics of the central Muertos thrust belt and Muertos Trough (northeastern Caribbean)
Multibeam bathymetry data acquired during the 2005 Spanish R/V Hesp??rides cruise and reprocessed multichannel seismic profiles provide the basis for the analysis of the morphology and deformation in the central Muertos Trough and Muertos thrust belt. The Muertos Trough is an elongated basin developed where the Venezuelan Basin crust is thrusted under the Muertos fold-and-thrust belt. Structural v
Bivergent thrust wedges surrounding oceanic island arcs: Insight from observations and sandbox models of the northeastern caribbean plate
At several localities around the world, thrust belts have developed on both sides of oceanic island arcs (e.g., Java-Timor, Panama, Vanuatu, and the northeastern Caribbean). In these localities, the overall vergence of the backarc thrust belt is opposite to that of the forearc thrust belt. For example, in the northeastern Caribbean, a north-verging accretionary prism lies to the north of the Easte
Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean
The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbe
Submarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami: Observations and modeling
Coarse-clast ridge complexes of the Caribbean: A preliminary basis for distinguishing tsunami and storm-wave origins
Coastal gravel-ridge complexes deposited on islands in the Caribbean Sea are recorders of past extreme-wave events that could be associated with either tsunamis or hurricanes. The ridge complexes of Bonaire, Jamaica, Puerto Rico (Isla de Mona), and Guadeloupe consist of polymodal clasts ranging in size from sand to coarse boulders that are derived from the adjacent coral reefs or subjacent rock pl
Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are located at an active plate boundary between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. Plate movements have caused large magnitude earthquakes and devastating tsunamis. The USGS has an ongoing program to identify and map the faults in this region using various geophysical and geological methods in order to estimate the location and magnitude of potential earthquakes.
Earthquakes and tsunamis in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and adjacent islands are mostly caused by the convergence of the North American tectonic plate with the Caribbean tectonic plate on which the islands are located. The rate at which these plates come together is similar to the rate at which a human fingernail grows.
Over a few hundreds or thousands of years several meters of motion accumulate resulting in occasional earthquakes and associated landslides and tsunamis. Puerto Rico’s rocky island crust and its surrounding seafloor are squeezed between the tectonic plates. The rocks are naturally full of fractures and faults and given enough push, some of these faults may move abruptly to relieve the stress; causing earthquakes. The USGS has an ongoing program to identify and map the faults in this region using various geophysical and geological methods in order to estimate the location and magnitude of potential earthquakes.
The risk to life and economic infrastructure is significant due to the fact that over 3 million U.S. citizens live along the coastlines of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. By determining the likely hazards and their causative mechanisms and providing this information to government agencies and the public, the USGS can aid in such activities as improvement of building codes, encouraging safer zoning, and assisting public education for response to hazards.
In the 20th century alone there have been several very large earthquakes north of Puerto Rico (Ms 7.3 in 1918; Ms 7.8 in 1943; Ms 8.0 in 1946 and four major aftershocks of Ms 7.6, 7.0, 7.3, 7.1 between 1946 and 1953). Large tsunamis have also hit Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reportedly killing 1800 people in 1946 and 40 people in 1918. Images of the slope north of Puerto Rico disclose massive slope failure scars, as much as 50 km across, that probably generated tsunamis along the north shore of the island. Other margins of the island (west, south, and south west) are also associated with massive tectonic features and may pose addtional hazard.
In the 20th century alone there have been several very large earthquakes north of Puerto Rico (Ms 7.3 in 1918; Ms 7.8 in 1943; Ms 8.0 in 1946 and four major aftershocks of Ms 7.6, 7.0, 7.3, 7.1 between 1946 and 1953). Large tsunamis have also hit Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, reportedly killing 1800 people in 1946 and 40 people in 1918. Images of the slope north of Puerto Rico disclose massive slope failure scars, as much as 50 km across, that probably generated tsunamis along the north shore of the island. Other margins of the island (west, south, and south west) are also associated with massive tectonic features and may pose addtional hazard.
The Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, with water depths exceeding 8,300 meters. Its depth is comparable to the deep trenches in the Pacific Ocean. Trenches in the Pacific are located in places where one tectonic plate subducts or slides under another one. The Puerto Rico Trench, in contrast, is located at a boundary between two plates that slide past each other with only a small component of subduction. The trench is less deep where the component of subduction is larger. The unusually deep sea floor is not limited to the trench, but also extends farther south toward Puerto Rico. The Puerto Rico Trench is also associated with the most negative gravity anomaly on earth, -380 milliGal, which indicates the presence of an active downward force. Finally, a thick limestone platform, which was originally deposited in flat layers near sea level, is now tilted northward at a uniform angle. Its northward edge is at a depth of 4,200 m, and its southern edge can be found on land in Puerto Rico at an elevation of a few hundred meters. Many tectonic models have been proposed to explain this geologically fascinating, tectonically active region; however, none has gained acceptance, and the region remains poorly understood, largely because its underwater location makes it difficult to study.
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands to its east, and eastern Hispaniola to its west, are located on an active plate boundary zone between the North American plate and the northeast corner of the Caribbean plate. The Caribbean plate is roughly rectangular, and it slides eastward at about 2 cm/yr relative to the North American plate. Motion along its northern boundary (in the plate boundary zone region) is dominantly strike-slip (sideways motion between the plates), with a small component of subduction (one plate sinks under the other plate). In contrast, the Caribbean plate farther east overrides the North American plate, creating the island arc of the Lesser Antilles with its active volcanoes. There are no active volcanoes in Puerto Rico and virgin islands.
The geologic settings of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have created or contributed to several pressing societal issues related to human safety, environmental health, and economic development. Because the island lies on an active plate boundary, earthquakes are a constant threat, and the densely populated coastal areas are vulnerable to tsunamis. Erosion is a concern in many coastal areas, but is particularly serious to island economies that rely heavily on the tourist industry.
The region has high seismicity and large earthquakes. Examples include a magnitude 7.5 earthquake centered northwest of Puerto Rico in 1943, and magnitude 8.1 and 6.9 earthquakes north of Hispaniola in 1946 and 1953, respectively. Historically, other large earthquakes have also struck the area, such as one in 1787 (magnitude~8.1), possibly in the Puerto Rico Trench, and one in 1867 (magnitude~7.5) between St. Thomas ad St. Croix in the Anegada Trough. A draft U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hazard map places equal probability for damaging ground motion for Mayaguez in western Puerto Rico as for Seattle, Washington. Other Puerto Rican cities also have substantial risk.
The hazard from tsunamis is also apparent. Immediately after the 1946 earthquake, a tsunami struck northeastern Hispaniola and moved inland for several kilometers. Some reports indicate that nearly 1,800 people drowned. A 1918 magnitude 7.5 earthquake resulted in a tsunami that killed at least 40 people in northwestern Puerto Rico. Eyewitness reports of an 1867 Virgin Islands tsunami gave a maximum wave height of >7 m in Frederiksted, St. Croix, where a large naval vessel was left on top of a pier. Essentially, all of the known causes of tsunamis are present in the Caribbean -- earthquakes, submarine landslides, submarine volcanic eruptions, subaerial pyroclastic flows into the ocean, and major tsunamis called teletsunamis. Because of its high population density and extensive development near the coast, Puerto Rico has a significant risk for earthquakes and tsunamis
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Significant Earthquakes on a major fault system in Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Lesser Antilles, 1500–2010: Implications for Seismic Hazard
Below are publications associated with this project.
Mysterious tsunami in the Caribbean Sea following the 2010 Haiti earthquake possibly generated by dynamically triggered early aftershocks
Dynamically triggered offshore aftershocks, caused by passing seismic waves from main shocks located on land, are currently not considered in tsunami warnings. The M7.0 2010 Haiti earthquake epicenter was located on land 27 km north of the Caribbean Sea and its focal mechanism was oblique strike-slip. Nevertheless, a tsunami recorded on a Caribbean Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (D
Plate interaction in the NE Caribbean subduction zone from continuous GPS observations
Kinematic similarities between the Sumatra and Puerto Rico Trenches highlight the potential for a mega-earthquake along the Puerto Rico Trench and the generation of local and trans-Atlantic tsunamis. We used the horizontal components of continuous GPS (cGPS) measurements from 10 sites on NE Caribbean islands to evaluate strain accumulation along the North American (NA) - Caribbean (CA) plate bound
Accounts of damage from historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean to aid in the determination of their location and intensity magnitudes
Earthquakes have been documented in the northeastern Caribbean since the arrival of Columbus to the Americas; written accounts of these felt earthquakes exist in various parts of the world. To better understand the earthquake cycle in the Caribbean, the records of earthquakes in earlier catalogs and historical documents from various archives, which are now available online, were critically examine
Historical perspective on seismic hazard to Hispaniola and the northeast Caribbean region
We evaluate the long-term seismic activity of the North-American/Caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports. The 2010 Haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity, magnitude, and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter, for Hispaniola and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Isl
Tsunami simulations of the 1867 Virgin Island earthquake: Constraints on epicenter location and fault parameters
The 18 November 1867 Virgin Island earthquake and the tsunami that closely followed caused considerable loss of life and damage in several places in the northeast Caribbean region. The earthquake was likely a manifestation of the complex tectonic deformation of the Anegada Passage, which cuts across the Antilles island arc between the Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. In this article, we att
Gravity modeling of the Muertos Trough and tectonic implications (north-eastern Caribbean)
The Muertos Trough in the northeast Caribbean has been interpreted as a subduction zone from seismicity, leading to infer a possible reversal subduction polarity. However, the distribution of the seismicity is very diffuse and makes definition of the plate geometry difficult. In addition, the compressive deformational features observed in the upper crust and sandbox kinematic modeling do not neces
Extension in Mona Passage, Northeast Caribbean
As shown by the recent Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake, intra-arc deformation, which accompanies the subduction process, can present seismic and tsunami hazards to nearby islands. Spatially-limited diffuse tectonic deformation within the Northeast Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone likely led to the development of the submerged Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. GPS geodetic data and
Morphotectonics of the central Muertos thrust belt and Muertos Trough (northeastern Caribbean)
Multibeam bathymetry data acquired during the 2005 Spanish R/V Hesp??rides cruise and reprocessed multichannel seismic profiles provide the basis for the analysis of the morphology and deformation in the central Muertos Trough and Muertos thrust belt. The Muertos Trough is an elongated basin developed where the Venezuelan Basin crust is thrusted under the Muertos fold-and-thrust belt. Structural v
Bivergent thrust wedges surrounding oceanic island arcs: Insight from observations and sandbox models of the northeastern caribbean plate
At several localities around the world, thrust belts have developed on both sides of oceanic island arcs (e.g., Java-Timor, Panama, Vanuatu, and the northeastern Caribbean). In these localities, the overall vergence of the backarc thrust belt is opposite to that of the forearc thrust belt. For example, in the northeastern Caribbean, a north-verging accretionary prism lies to the north of the Easte
Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean
The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbe
Submarine landslide as the source for the October 11, 1918 Mona Passage tsunami: Observations and modeling
Coarse-clast ridge complexes of the Caribbean: A preliminary basis for distinguishing tsunami and storm-wave origins
Coastal gravel-ridge complexes deposited on islands in the Caribbean Sea are recorders of past extreme-wave events that could be associated with either tsunamis or hurricanes. The ridge complexes of Bonaire, Jamaica, Puerto Rico (Isla de Mona), and Guadeloupe consist of polymodal clasts ranging in size from sand to coarse boulders that are derived from the adjacent coral reefs or subjacent rock pl
Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region
We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Lo