The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment combines over twenty coastal data sources that describe the landscape and the hazards that act on it to determine the future likelihood of change on the coast in the next decade.
Data Report
Data Release
The U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the National Park Service through the Natural Resource Preservation Program, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along U.S. coastlines in the next decade.
The Northeast United States, from Maine to Virginia, was selected for a proof-of-concept pilot study.
What is the Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment?
The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment synthesizes over 20 existing datasets from a variety of federal, state, and private organizations to describe the landscape and the hazards that may affect it to evaluate the likelihood of coastal change along U.S. coastlines on a decadal scale.
The assessment utilizes datasets that describe the coastal landscape, or fabric, and six common coastal hazards—erosion, storm frequency, relative sea level rise, tidal flooding, storm overwash probability, and wave power. A supervised machine learning framework is used to synthesize the fabric and hazard data to estimate the likelihood of coastal change in the coming decade.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
How can it be used?
The CCL outcomes can be used as a first order planning tool to determine which areas of the coast are more likely to change in response to future potential coastal hazards, and to examine elements and drivers that make change in a given location more likely.
What is the geographical scope of the data?
Currently, data are available for the Northeast region of the U.S., from Maine to Virginia, and extend across the coastal zone, from the coastline to inland, up to 10 meters above mean high water. Read the data report, “The Workflow of the Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment for the Northeast Region, Maine to Virginia,” to learn more.
The USGS is committed to bringing the CCL assessment to the lake shores of the Great Lakes next through a collaboration with the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. Expansion beyond the Northeast and Great Lakes is currently being explored.
Why is this work important?
Coastal resources are increasingly impacted by erosion, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards. These hazards have varying impacts on coastal landscapes. Understanding where coastal change is most likely to occur and which types of hazards, event-driven (e.g., storms) and/or perpetual (e.g., sea level rise), are more likely to affect a specific location is essential to planning for future vulnerabilities to people and resources.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
An update to the Coastal Vulnerability Index
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards. The CCL incorporates significant improvements to the Coastal Vulnerability Index thanks to technological updates and improvements in coastal data source quality and resolution.
Our update seeks to preserve the strengths of the original study, which include the color-coded assessment map, analysis of geologic properties and hazards that influence coastal change, and national-scale coverage, while applying advances in spatial analysis, input datasets and resolution, and timescales of anticipated coastal change.
When compared with the Coastal Vulnerability Index, the data in the CCL have a higher resolution, areal coverage, and accuracy, include more complex hazards information, better account for geological and ecological variability and human development, and the data layers can be used together or independently to evaluate where different types of hazards are likely to have the greatest impacts on the coast.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Learn More and Download Data
Data Report
Data Report
Data Release
Data Release
Geonarrative
Geonarrative
Coastal Fabric
Coastal Fabric
Coastal Hazards
Coastal Hazards
Maximum Change Likelihood
Maximum Change Likelihood
Coastal Change Likelihood Geonarrative
The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment combines over twenty coastal data sources that describe the landscape and the hazards that act on it to determine the future likelihood of change on the coast in the next decade.
CCL Hazards
Map showing the hazards type layer, which highlights the hazard type (event or perpetual) that may be most influential in coastal change for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for the outer extent of Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts.
Map showing the hazards type layer, which highlights the hazard type (event or perpetual) that may be most influential in coastal change for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for the outer extent of Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts.
CCL
Map showing the maximum coastal change likelihood value derived from support vector machine supervised learning that combines the fabric data with the event and perpetual hazards and selects the maximum outcome of that combination for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for an area along the Delmarva Peninsula that is characterized by developed and undev
Map showing the maximum coastal change likelihood value derived from support vector machine supervised learning that combines the fabric data with the event and perpetual hazards and selects the maximum outcome of that combination for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for an area along the Delmarva Peninsula that is characterized by developed and undev
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade.
Coastal Vulnerability Index - 1999
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. Here is the CCL map for Chesapeake, Va.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. Here is the CCL map for Chesapeake, Va.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Fabric Data
The assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change to produce the initial fabric layer.
The assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change to produce the initial fabric layer.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Perpetual Hazard Data
Data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding are synthesized in hazards layers.
Data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding are synthesized in hazards layers.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Fabric Data
The CCL assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change, with data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding. These data types are known as fabric and hazards, respectively.
The CCL assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change, with data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding. These data types are known as fabric and hazards, respectively.
CCL and CVI
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. The CCL data displayed here are for the mid-Atlantic Bight, and extend from the shoreline to 10m elevation inland.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. The CCL data displayed here are for the mid-Atlantic Bight, and extend from the shoreline to 10m elevation inland.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast coastline in the next decade. Pictured here is coastal change likelihood on Cape Cod.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast coastline in the next decade. Pictured here is coastal change likelihood on Cape Cod.
Coastal Change Likelihood
Where are coastal landscapes likely to change?
Where are coastal landscapes likely to change?
Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the U.S. northeast coast in the next decade.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the National Park Service through the Natural Resource Preservation Program, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along U.S. coastlines in the next decade.
The Northeast United States, from Maine to Virginia, was selected for a proof-of-concept pilot study.
What is the Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment?
The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment synthesizes over 20 existing datasets from a variety of federal, state, and private organizations to describe the landscape and the hazards that may affect it to evaluate the likelihood of coastal change along U.S. coastlines on a decadal scale.
The assessment utilizes datasets that describe the coastal landscape, or fabric, and six common coastal hazards—erosion, storm frequency, relative sea level rise, tidal flooding, storm overwash probability, and wave power. A supervised machine learning framework is used to synthesize the fabric and hazard data to estimate the likelihood of coastal change in the coming decade.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
How can it be used?
The CCL outcomes can be used as a first order planning tool to determine which areas of the coast are more likely to change in response to future potential coastal hazards, and to examine elements and drivers that make change in a given location more likely.
What is the geographical scope of the data?
Currently, data are available for the Northeast region of the U.S., from Maine to Virginia, and extend across the coastal zone, from the coastline to inland, up to 10 meters above mean high water. Read the data report, “The Workflow of the Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment for the Northeast Region, Maine to Virginia,” to learn more.
The USGS is committed to bringing the CCL assessment to the lake shores of the Great Lakes next through a collaboration with the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. Expansion beyond the Northeast and Great Lakes is currently being explored.
Why is this work important?
Coastal resources are increasingly impacted by erosion, extreme weather events, sea-level rise, tidal flooding, and other potential hazards. These hazards have varying impacts on coastal landscapes. Understanding where coastal change is most likely to occur and which types of hazards, event-driven (e.g., storms) and/or perpetual (e.g., sea level rise), are more likely to affect a specific location is essential to planning for future vulnerabilities to people and resources.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
An update to the Coastal Vulnerability Index
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards. The CCL incorporates significant improvements to the Coastal Vulnerability Index thanks to technological updates and improvements in coastal data source quality and resolution.
Our update seeks to preserve the strengths of the original study, which include the color-coded assessment map, analysis of geologic properties and hazards that influence coastal change, and national-scale coverage, while applying advances in spatial analysis, input datasets and resolution, and timescales of anticipated coastal change.
When compared with the Coastal Vulnerability Index, the data in the CCL have a higher resolution, areal coverage, and accuracy, include more complex hazards information, better account for geological and ecological variability and human development, and the data layers can be used together or independently to evaluate where different types of hazards are likely to have the greatest impacts on the coast.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details
Learn More and Download Data
Data Report
Data Report
Data Release
Data Release
Geonarrative
Geonarrative
Coastal Fabric
Coastal Fabric
Coastal Hazards
Coastal Hazards
Maximum Change Likelihood
Maximum Change Likelihood
Coastal Change Likelihood Geonarrative
The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment combines over twenty coastal data sources that describe the landscape and the hazards that act on it to determine the future likelihood of change on the coast in the next decade.
The Coastal Change Likelihood (CCL) assessment combines over twenty coastal data sources that describe the landscape and the hazards that act on it to determine the future likelihood of change on the coast in the next decade.
CCL Hazards
Map showing the hazards type layer, which highlights the hazard type (event or perpetual) that may be most influential in coastal change for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for the outer extent of Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts.
Map showing the hazards type layer, which highlights the hazard type (event or perpetual) that may be most influential in coastal change for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for the outer extent of Cape Cod in eastern Massachusetts.
CCL
Map showing the maximum coastal change likelihood value derived from support vector machine supervised learning that combines the fabric data with the event and perpetual hazards and selects the maximum outcome of that combination for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for an area along the Delmarva Peninsula that is characterized by developed and undev
Map showing the maximum coastal change likelihood value derived from support vector machine supervised learning that combines the fabric data with the event and perpetual hazards and selects the maximum outcome of that combination for A, the northeastern United States and B, detail for an area along the Delmarva Peninsula that is characterized by developed and undev
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade.
Coastal Vulnerability Index - 1999
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. Here is the CCL map for Chesapeake, Va.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. Here is the CCL map for Chesapeake, Va.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Fabric Data
The assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change to produce the initial fabric layer.
The assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change to produce the initial fabric layer.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Perpetual Hazard Data
Data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding are synthesized in hazards layers.
Data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding are synthesized in hazards layers.
Coastal Change Likelihood - Fabric Data
The CCL assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change, with data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding. These data types are known as fabric and hazards, respectively.
The CCL assessment integrates data describing coastal characteristics, landscape composition, and the level of resistance to change, with data defining the drivers of change that impact the coast, such as waves and flooding. These data types are known as fabric and hazards, respectively.
CCL and CVI
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
The CCL is an updated version of the older Coastal Vulnerability Index, first published in 1999. While the original product was focused on change in the next 50-100 years based solely on sea level rise, the new CCL is more near-term, focusing on change over the next decade as a result of multiple coastal hazards.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. The CCL data displayed here are for the mid-Atlantic Bight, and extend from the shoreline to 10m elevation inland.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast U.S. coastline in the next decade. The CCL data displayed here are for the mid-Atlantic Bight, and extend from the shoreline to 10m elevation inland.
Coastal Change Likelihood
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast coastline in the next decade. Pictured here is coastal change likelihood on Cape Cod.
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the Northeast coastline in the next decade. Pictured here is coastal change likelihood on Cape Cod.
Coastal Change Likelihood
Where are coastal landscapes likely to change?
Where are coastal landscapes likely to change?
Coastal Change Likelihood Assessment
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed the Coastal Change Likelihood assessment to determine the future likelihood of coastal change along the U.S. northeast coast in the next decade.