Accuracy Assessment
Accuracy Assessment
Reliability diagrams of the WFPI model. (Left panel) Historic observed yearly fractions of 500+ acre fires in each of the grouped WFPI levels. (Right panel) historic observed yearly fraction of existing one-acre fires spreading to 500+ acres in each of the grouped WFPI levels.
Reliability diagram for the WLFP model. On average the risk of a large fire event was observed to be ~7 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >7) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 1-2). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~1 per million, is the overall observed historic average.
Reliability diagram for the WFSP model. On average the risk of spread was observed to be ~10 times greater when the predicted risk was extreme (risk category red; predicted class >=30) than when the predicted risk was moderate (risk category turquoise; predicted class 2-5). Between year variability is demonstrated by the length of the boxes and the extended whiskers. The horizontal line, at ~3%, is the overall observed historic average.
