Publications
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2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results 2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results
The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state...
Authors
Allison M. Shumway, Kevin Ross Milner, Peter M. Powers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Jason M. Altekruse, Julie A. Herrick, Andrea L. Llenos, Kyle B. Withers, Edward H. Field, Brad T. Aagaard, Richard W. Briggs, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Andrew J. Michael, Jessica A. Thompson Jobe, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Brandon S. Clayton, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Sanaz Rezaeian, Thomas L. Pratt, Yuehua Zeng
Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes Surface rupture and slip distribution of the 2025 Mw7.7 Mandalay earthquake and updated length scaling of supershear earthquakes
The 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), earthquake ruptured 475 km of the central Sagaing fault and is the longest continental strike-slip rupture on record. The observed rupture length is 1.6–4.7 times the value expected (100–300 km) from existing length-magnitude scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. The earthquake resulted from shallow dextral faulting and ruptured...
Authors
Nadine G. Reitman, Yuanshi Wang, Yu-Ting Kuo, Catherine Elise Hanagan, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Christopher B. DuRoss, Chun-Chi Chen, Dara Elyse Goldberg, Harriet Zoe Yin, Richard W. Briggs, Jessica A. Thompson Jobe, Sylvia R. Nicovich, Emerson Madelyn Lynch, Joseph Hoss Powell, William D. Barnhart, Robert G. Schmitt
Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Ground-motion characterization for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
We develop the ground-motion characterization (GMC) for the 2025 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (NSHM-PRVI) for earthquakes in active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab regimes. Using ground-motion models (GMMs) from the Next-Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 and NGA-Subduction projects, the GMC is parameterized by...
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Brad T. Aagaard, Kyle B. Withers, Kevin Ross Milner, Jason M. Altekruse, Julie A. Herrick, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Allison M. Shumway, William J. Stephenson
Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover
Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one...
Authors
Andrew Paul Graber, Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean, Jonathan Michael King, Jaime Kostelnik
Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory strategic vision Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory strategic vision
This circular presents a strategic outlook for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) for the next 10 years (2026–36). The ASL is a USGS field office in the Geological Hazards Science Center that operates portions of the Advanced National Seismic System and the Global Seismographic Network and focuses on fundamental research for instrumentation...
Authors
Adam T. Ringler, David C. Wilson, Robert E. Anthony, Corey I. Beutel, Andrew Holcomb, Charles R. Hutt, Tom Telesha
Channel morphology and large wood control postfire debris-flow erosion and deposition Channel morphology and large wood control postfire debris-flow erosion and deposition
Runoff-generated debris flows are a known response to wildfire, and accurately predicting the volume of these debris flows is important for estimating the magnitude of downstream hazards. Prior data collection efforts have focused on debris-flow volume measurements at catchment outlets, but few studies have considered how erosion and deposition modulate the volume of sediment arriving at...
Authors
Francis K. Rengers, Jason M. Stoker, Jaime Kostelnik, Jason W. Kean, Ellen E. Wohl, Katherine R. Barnhart, Lauren Elizabeth Guido
Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Suitability of ground-motion models for seismic hazard assessment in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
We perform linear mixed-effects analyses with a ground-motion dataset to evaluate how well ground-motion models (GMMs) fit active crustal, subduction interface, and subduction intraslab earthquakes in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Most of the GMMs reproduce the spatial variation in peak ground motions with earthquake magnitude and rupture distance but predict ground motions 0.3...
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kyle B. Withers
The 2025 Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Ground motion model selection and comparison The 2025 Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model Update: Ground motion model selection and comparison
We evaluate, select, and describe the ground-motion models (GMMs) used in the 2025 update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). We identify the most appropriate models that align with GMM selection criteria for use in the PRVI region to improve the accuracy of seismic hazard assessments. The update incorporates globally...
Authors
Kyle B. Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Brad T. Aagaard, Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Sanaz Rezaeian
Opportunities and challenges for incorporating lithium-ion batteries into geophysical power systems Opportunities and challenges for incorporating lithium-ion batteries into geophysical power systems
Batteries play a critical role at seismic and other geophysical stations in ensuring that the equipment receives uninterrupted power to make continuous observations of the Earth. Often sited in remote environments under a wide range of environmental conditions, these stations have almost ubiquitously used conventional lead‐acid batteries. However, recent advances in rechargeable lithium...
Authors
Robert E. Anthony, Scott Dalton, Jay Helmericks, Douglas Bloomquist, Jeremy Todd De Armond
Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25‐PRVI Puerto Rico-U.S. Virgin Island update Making many out of one: Synthetic geologic deformation model distributions for use in USGS NSHM25‐PRVI Puerto Rico-U.S. Virgin Island update
A key use‐case of geologic slip rates is within deformation models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Field‐derived geologic slip rates have formed the cornerstone of deformation models in such applications for decades. Recent advancements in seismic hazard analyses have expanded the use of faults for which geologic slip rates are not well constrained using categorical slip...
Authors
Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kevin Ross Milner, Richard W. Briggs, Jessica A. Thompson Jobe
Global primary and secondary microseism multi-decade geographic variation, secular intensification, and period lengthening Global primary and secondary microseism multi-decade geographic variation, secular intensification, and period lengthening
Earth's long-period background seismic wavefield is dominated by two distinct processes that couple ocean wave energy to a global microseism wavefield. We assess global microseism intensity in the secondary (4–10 s) and primary (14–20 s) bands, and across eight 2 s-wide period bands between 4 and 20 s. Robustly estimated primary and secondary secular amplitude trends are estimated at 73...
Authors
Rick Aster, Thomas A. Lee, Frederik Simons, Adam T. Ringler, Robert E. Anthony
Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska) Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)
Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly...
Authors
Liam Toney, Michael E. West, Ezgi Karasözen, Denny M Capps, Elaine A. Collins, Kate E. Allstadt, Jana Pursley, Heather McFarlin, Anne Mangeney, David Fee, Dennis M. Staley, Matthew M. Haney, John J. Lyons, John Bellini