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Drought Prediction Science Active

By Water Resources Mission Area March 23, 2023

What is streamflow drought?

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Drought is a prolonged and widespread deficit in available water supplies that creates multiple stressors across ecosystems and communities. The U.S. Geological Survey Water Mission Area conducts drought research and modeling to improve drought prediction capabilities. The research focus is on understanding the hydrological, ecological, and economic ramifications of drought. The modeling focus builds on the research to provide predictive capacity for resilience planning at local, regional, and national levels. Prediction of the onset, severity, and duration of hydrologic drought conditions is critical for the USGS to identify and evaluate multi-sector responses to alterations in water availability.

The U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science capacity includes monitoring, research, and modeling. Long-term water monitoring has allowed for identification of drought periods in the context of climatic variability and change, and for statistical trend analysis of continuous data to support earlier and more accurate detection of low-flow and drought conditions. Recent drought science research has focused on modeling and analysis of drivers of hydrologic drought. 

In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey is exploring the usage of new data-driven methods (artificial intelligence and machine learning) to predict and deliver early warning of hydrological drought conditions at higher spatial and temporal resolution than currently available. These data-driven drought prediction models will provide useful information to stakeholders on drought onset, duration, and severity metrics (and their uncertainty) for surface water and groundwater.

Ongoing scientific inquiries and activities to support drought characterization and prediction include:

  • Supporting the assimilation, screening, analysis, publication, archiving, and delivery of drought data from USGS and other sources;
  • Developing stakeholder-relevant hydrologic drought metrics;
  • Describing uncertainties associated with drought causes and effects;
  • Incorporating the drivers of flash drought into predictive modeling;
  • Establishing links between the effects of drought on wildfire, floods, and water quality; and,
  • Developing regional- and national-scale prototype maps that will display streamflow drought conditions as well as predictions for weeks to months in advance.

Recent publications:

Data releases related to U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science.

Streamflow Drought Metrics for Select United States Geological Survey Streamgages for Three Different Time Periods from 1921 - 2020

This metadata record describes a series of datasets containing metrics used to characterize drought for four sets of United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for three different time periods between 1921 and 2020 outlined below. The streamgages used are a subset based on the criteria used in Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflo
By
Oregon Water Science Center, Drought

U.S. Streamflow Drought During the Last Century: annual drought and low flow metrics, annual climate, and trends for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020 and 1981-2020

This dataset contains annual flow metrics quantifying drought and low streamflows for USGS GAGES-2 gages in the contiguous U.S. satisfying data completeness checks for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020, and 1981-2020. The dataset also contains annual climate variables from the USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). The dataset provides trend analysis outputs for annual drought and low flow metric
By
Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Drought

USGS monthly water balance model inputs and outputs for the conterminous United States, 1895-2020, based on ClimGrid data

This NetCDF represents the monthly inputs and outputs from a United States Geological Survey water-balance model (McCabe and Wolock, 2011) for the conterminous United States for the period 1895-01-01 to 2020-12-31. The source data used to run the water balance model is based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's(NOAA, 2020) ClimGrid data for precipitation and temperature. This N
By
Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Drought

Clusters of monthly streamflow values with similar temporal patterns at 555 HCDN sites for the period 1981 to 2019

This data release identifies 555 Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) streamgages in the conterminous United States during the period 1981-2019 which were grouped according to similarity in their temporal patterns of monthly streamflow.
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Publications related to U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science.

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we
Authors
Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock, Melissa Lombard, Robert W. Dudley, John Christopher Hammond, Jory Seth Hecht, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Carolyn G. Olson, Roy Sando, Caelan E. Simeone, Michael E. Wieczorek
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration
Authors
John C. Hammond, Caelan E. Simeone, Jory Seth Hecht, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Melissa Lombard, Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock, Michael Wieczorek, Carolyn G Olson, Todd Caldwell, Robert W. Dudley, Adam N. Price
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Nevada Water Science Center, New England Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center, Drought

Tree rings reveal unmatched 2nd century drought in the Colorado River Basin

The ongoing 22 year drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has been extremely severe, even in the context of the longest available tree-ring reconstruction of annual flow at Lees Ferry, Arizona, dating back to 762 CE. While many southwestern drought assessments have been limited to the past 1200 years, longer paleorecords of moisture variability do exist for the UCRB. Here, gridded droug
Authors
Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Connie Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe, Cody C. Routson, David Meko
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Extensive droughts in the conterminous United States during multiple centuries

Extensive and severe droughts have substantial effects on water supplies, agriculture, and aquatic ecosystems. To better understand these droughts, we used tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) for the period 1475–2017 to examine droughts that covered at least 33% of the conterminous United States (CONUS). We identified 37 spatially extensive drought events fo
Authors
Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Drought is a prolonged and widespread deficit in available water supplies that creates multiple stressors across ecosystems and communities. The U.S. Geological Survey Water Mission Area conducts drought research and modeling to improve drought prediction capabilities. The research focus is on understanding the hydrological, ecological, and economic ramifications of drought. The modeling focus builds on the research to provide predictive capacity for resilience planning at local, regional, and national levels. Prediction of the onset, severity, and duration of hydrologic drought conditions is critical for the USGS to identify and evaluate multi-sector responses to alterations in water availability.

The U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science capacity includes monitoring, research, and modeling. Long-term water monitoring has allowed for identification of drought periods in the context of climatic variability and change, and for statistical trend analysis of continuous data to support earlier and more accurate detection of low-flow and drought conditions. Recent drought science research has focused on modeling and analysis of drivers of hydrologic drought. 

In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey is exploring the usage of new data-driven methods (artificial intelligence and machine learning) to predict and deliver early warning of hydrological drought conditions at higher spatial and temporal resolution than currently available. These data-driven drought prediction models will provide useful information to stakeholders on drought onset, duration, and severity metrics (and their uncertainty) for surface water and groundwater.

Ongoing scientific inquiries and activities to support drought characterization and prediction include:

  • Supporting the assimilation, screening, analysis, publication, archiving, and delivery of drought data from USGS and other sources;
  • Developing stakeholder-relevant hydrologic drought metrics;
  • Describing uncertainties associated with drought causes and effects;
  • Incorporating the drivers of flash drought into predictive modeling;
  • Establishing links between the effects of drought on wildfire, floods, and water quality; and,
  • Developing regional- and national-scale prototype maps that will display streamflow drought conditions as well as predictions for weeks to months in advance.

Recent publications:

Data releases related to U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science.

Streamflow Drought Metrics for Select United States Geological Survey Streamgages for Three Different Time Periods from 1921 - 2020

This metadata record describes a series of datasets containing metrics used to characterize drought for four sets of United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for three different time periods between 1921 and 2020 outlined below. The streamgages used are a subset based on the criteria used in Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflo
By
Oregon Water Science Center, Drought

U.S. Streamflow Drought During the Last Century: annual drought and low flow metrics, annual climate, and trends for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020 and 1981-2020

This dataset contains annual flow metrics quantifying drought and low streamflows for USGS GAGES-2 gages in the contiguous U.S. satisfying data completeness checks for the periods 1921-2020, 1951-2020, and 1981-2020. The dataset also contains annual climate variables from the USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM). The dataset provides trend analysis outputs for annual drought and low flow metric
By
Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Drought

USGS monthly water balance model inputs and outputs for the conterminous United States, 1895-2020, based on ClimGrid data

This NetCDF represents the monthly inputs and outputs from a United States Geological Survey water-balance model (McCabe and Wolock, 2011) for the conterminous United States for the period 1895-01-01 to 2020-12-31. The source data used to run the water balance model is based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's(NOAA, 2020) ClimGrid data for precipitation and temperature. This N
By
Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Drought

Clusters of monthly streamflow values with similar temporal patterns at 555 HCDN sites for the period 1981 to 2019

This data release identifies 555 Hydro-Climatic Data Network (HCDN) streamgages in the conterminous United States during the period 1981-2019 which were grouped according to similarity in their temporal patterns of monthly streamflow.
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Publications related to U.S. Geological Survey drought prediction science.

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

Drought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we
Authors
Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock, Melissa Lombard, Robert W. Dudley, John Christopher Hammond, Jory Seth Hecht, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Carolyn G. Olson, Roy Sando, Caelan E. Simeone, Michael E. Wieczorek
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration
Authors
John C. Hammond, Caelan E. Simeone, Jory Seth Hecht, Glenn A. Hodgkins, Melissa Lombard, Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock, Michael Wieczorek, Carolyn G Olson, Todd Caldwell, Robert W. Dudley, Adam N. Price
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Nevada Water Science Center, New England Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center, Drought

Tree rings reveal unmatched 2nd century drought in the Colorado River Basin

The ongoing 22 year drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has been extremely severe, even in the context of the longest available tree-ring reconstruction of annual flow at Lees Ferry, Arizona, dating back to 762 CE. While many southwestern drought assessments have been limited to the past 1200 years, longer paleorecords of moisture variability do exist for the UCRB. Here, gridded droug
Authors
Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Connie Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe, Cody C. Routson, David Meko
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought

Extensive droughts in the conterminous United States during multiple centuries

Extensive and severe droughts have substantial effects on water supplies, agriculture, and aquatic ecosystems. To better understand these droughts, we used tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) for the period 1475–2017 to examine droughts that covered at least 33% of the conterminous United States (CONUS). We identified 37 spatially extensive drought events fo
Authors
Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Drought