Book Chapters

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Decision structuring, also known as decision framing, provides the foundation and roadmap for analyzing a decision. For decisions that warrant a systematic approach, structuring begins with identifying the problem for analysis, which sounds simple but can be deceptively difficult because decision problems are often ill-formed at the start. Many have worked on a problem, alone or with...

Predicting the consequences of alternative actions in terms of the objectives is central to decision making. Modeling in the broadest sense, from simple to complex and based on data or expert judgment, comprises the essential toolkit for making decision-relevant predictions. Gaps in knowledge and the resulting uncertainty can make predictive modeling challenging. Gathering information to

Many decisions are made in the face of uncertainty that either cannot or will not be reduced, and the challenge to the decision maker is how to manage the risk imposed by that uncertainty. This chapter will introduce the field of risk analysis, focusing on both the scientific tasks (estimating the probabilities and magnitudes of possible outcomes) and the policy-relevant value judgments...

Each year, the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), with advice from a Fisheries Management Team, allocates funding to support the National Fish Habitat Action Plan. The Service distributes the funds to Fish Habitat Partnerships (FHPs), who, in turn, undertake projects that “protect, restore, or enhance fish and aquatic habitats or otherwise directly support habitat...

Often, a decision maker is faced with a series of linked decisions, rather than an isolated one-off decision. In natural resource management, it is common to make a similar type of decision on a regular basis (e.g., annually). Such linked decisions have two important properties: they are dynamic, that is, the actions taken early on affect immediate outcomes as well as the effects of...

With ongoing habitat loss and degradation, ever-increasing threats to biodiversity, and limited funding for conservation and management, nearly every natural resource manager routinely faces difficult resource allocation problems. Funding and capacity for natural resource management rarely meet the need, and informed resource allocations are increasingly important. These decision...

To be effective, managers of imperiled species must face the unavoidable tradeoff between conservation benefits and constrained budgets and must not be paralyzed by scientific uncertainty. Decision analysis can help meet these challenges when used to develop cost-effective strategies to recover or improve the status of species. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with state...

Hawai‘i’s high-elevation forests provide a critical refuge from disease for native forest birds. However, global warming is facilitating the encroachment of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit into increasingly higher elevations of remaining refugia, threatening the viability of the forest birds across the islands. Multiple management actions to address the threat of disease have...

Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the coastal zone are exacerbated by uncertainty about sea level rise...