The HayWired scenario depicts a scientifically realistic earthquake sequence, and its cascading impacts, that all starts with a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The scenario emphasizes connectedness: multi-hazards of an earthquake, interactions between critical infrastructure systems, and compounded effects in communities and economies.
The HayWired project is the earthquake scenario designed to model and study effects on the San Francisco Bay area from a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The study builds upon understanding of the last large earthquake to occur on the Hayward Fault in 1868, but with the realization that modern urban infrastructures are made vulnerable by multiple layers of interdependencies between transportation and utilities, with reliance on telecommunications and the Internet. This scenario also considers impacts from a sequence of aftershocks following the main earthquake, an aspect often overlooked but an important component of the physical and emotional damage associated with large earthquakes extending into the days and months following.
The HayWired scenario is the fourth disaster scenario from the SAFRR Project and is supported by the USGS Natural Hazards and Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Mission Areas.
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Voice and data telecommunications restoration curves for 15 counties affected by the April 18, 2018, M7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock
Estimated geospatial and tabular damages and vulnerable population distributions resulting from exposure to multiple hazards by the M7.0 HayWired scenario on April 18, 2018, for 17 counties in the San Francisco Bay region, California
Economic subareas of interest data for areas containing concentrated damage resulting from the April 18, 2018, HayWired earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay region, California
Fire following the Mw 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario
Point locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, California
USGS has produced a number of multimedia products to help understand earthquake impacts.
The HayWired Scenario is documented in three USGS Scientific Investigations Reports that describe the potential geologic, structural, economic, and social consequences of a M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. There are also two factsheet summarizing the reports.
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences is the third volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and a
The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Liquefaction and Sea-Level Rise
USGS scientists published a storymap explaining the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California for the magnitude 7.0 ‘HayWired’ earthquake scenario along the Hayward Fault.
The HayWired Scenario: An Urban Earthquake in a Connected World - A Geonarrative
What might it be like the next time the Hayward Fault has a large earthquake? A geonarrative and related imagery examines a hypothetical earthquake, the magnitude 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario.
Below are some partners associated with this project. Additional partners will be added soon.
- Overview
The HayWired scenario depicts a scientifically realistic earthquake sequence, and its cascading impacts, that all starts with a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The scenario emphasizes connectedness: multi-hazards of an earthquake, interactions between critical infrastructure systems, and compounded effects in communities and economies.
The HayWired project is the earthquake scenario designed to model and study effects on the San Francisco Bay area from a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The study builds upon understanding of the last large earthquake to occur on the Hayward Fault in 1868, but with the realization that modern urban infrastructures are made vulnerable by multiple layers of interdependencies between transportation and utilities, with reliance on telecommunications and the Internet. This scenario also considers impacts from a sequence of aftershocks following the main earthquake, an aspect often overlooked but an important component of the physical and emotional damage associated with large earthquakes extending into the days and months following.
The HayWired scenario is the fourth disaster scenario from the SAFRR Project and is supported by the USGS Natural Hazards and Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Mission Areas.
- Data
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Voice and data telecommunications restoration curves for 15 counties affected by the April 18, 2018, M7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock
These data are a series of telecommunications voice and data restoration percentages for 17 counties affected by the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. These data for telecommunications demand served are derived from residual network capacity based on potential hazard information (Estimated geospatial and tabular damages and vulnerable population distributions resulting from exposure to multiple hazards by the M7.0 HayWired scenario on April 18, 2018, for 17 counties in the San Francisco Bay region, California
This data release is comprised of geospatial and tabular data developed for the HayWired communities at risk analysis. The HayWired earthquake scenario is a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hypothesized to occur on the Hayward Fault on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. The following 17 counties are included in this analysis unless otherwise specified: Alameda, Contra Costa, MaEconomic subareas of interest data for areas containing concentrated damage resulting from the April 18, 2018, HayWired earthquake scenario in the San Francisco Bay region, California
The data in this data release are comprised of one geospatial vector dataset and three tabular datasets related to the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake hypothesized to occur on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. The geospatial vector data are a representation of identified economic subareas for use in selected analyses related to selected countieFire following the Mw 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario
These data are a geospatial representation of potential damage resulting from fires following the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault on April 18, 2018, with an epicenter in the city of Oakland, CA. These data take information about prevailing conditions (for example, average wind speed and direction) and potential hazard information (for examplePoint locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, California
This dataset represents the spatial locations of all modeled aftershocks magnitude 2.5 and greater resulting from the HayWired M7.0 mainshock occurring on April 18, 2018 along the Hayward Fault. The date/time, horizontal and vertical location, and sequence position is provided for each aftershock. The spatial extent covers 24 counties in whole or in part, corresponding to the modeled shaking exten - Multimedia
USGS has produced a number of multimedia products to help understand earthquake impacts.
- Publications
The HayWired Scenario is documented in three USGS Scientific Investigations Reports that describe the potential geologic, structural, economic, and social consequences of a M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. There are also two factsheet summarizing the reports.
The HayWired earthquake scenario—Engineering implications
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications is the second volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during aThe HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical moment magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault runs along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, passing through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. A scientifically realistic scenAuthorsAnne M. Wein, Joseph L. Jones, Laurie A. Johnson, Cynthia Kroll, Jennifer A. Strauss, David Witkowski, Dale A. CoxThe HayWired earthquake scenario—Societal consequences
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences is the third volume of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013, which describes the HayWired scenario, developed by USGS and its partners. The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and a
The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. One way to learn about a large eAuthorsKenneth W. Hudnut, Anne M. Wein, Dale A. Cox, Keith A. Porter, Laurie A. Johnson, Suzanne C. Perry, Jennifer L. Bruce, Drew LaPointeThe HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward FaultThe HayWired Earthquake Scenario
ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replac - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Liquefaction and Sea-Level Rise
USGS scientists published a storymap explaining the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California for the magnitude 7.0 ‘HayWired’ earthquake scenario along the Hayward Fault.
The HayWired Scenario: An Urban Earthquake in a Connected World - A Geonarrative
What might it be like the next time the Hayward Fault has a large earthquake? A geonarrative and related imagery examines a hypothetical earthquake, the magnitude 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario.
- Partners
Below are some partners associated with this project. Additional partners will be added soon.
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