Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government


Filter Total Items: 36

Prototyping a methodology for long-term (1680-2100) historical-to-future landscape modeling for the conterminous United States

Land system change has been identified as one of four major Earth system processes where change has passed a destabilizing threshold. A historical record of landscape change is required to understand the impacts change has had on human and natural systems, while scenarios of future landscape change are required to facilitate planning and mitigation efforts. A methodology for modeling long-term his
Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Charles Robison, Gregory Rouze, Terry L. Sohl

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions

Land‐use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long‐term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land‐use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Ches
Kelly O. Maloney, Kevin P. Krause, Claire Buchanan, Lauren Hay, Gregory J. McCabe, Zachary M. Smith, Terry L. Sohl, John A. Young

Remote sensing as the foundation for high-resolution United States landscape projections – The Land Change Monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) initiative

The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatia
Terry L. Sohl, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Charles Robison

Linking landscapes and people—Projecting the future of the Great Plains

We developed a unique set of landscape projections for the Great Plains that use real land-management parcels to represent landscape patterns at high spatial and thematic resolution.Both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation respond in the model to projected changes in groundwater availability and climate change.Thirty-three scenario combinations were modeled, facilitating landscape planni
Terry L. Sohl, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika

Simulating the effects of management practices on cropland soil organic carbon changes in the Temperate Prairies Ecoregion of the United States from 1980 to 2012

Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for designing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States, management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOC loss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to under
Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Terry L. Sohl, Yiping Wu

Grand challenges for integrated USGS science — A workshop report

Executive SummaryThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007–2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a numbe
Karen E. Jenni, Martin B. Goldhaber, Julio L. Betancourt, Jill S. Baron, Sky Bristol, Mary Cantrill, Paul E. Exter, Michael J. Focazio, John W. Haines, Lauren E. Hay, Leslie Hsu, Victor F. Labson, Kevin D. Lafferty, K. A. Ludwig, Paul C. D. Milly, Toni L. Morelli, Suzette A. Morman, Nedal T. Nassar, Timothy R. Newman, Andrea C. Ostroff, Jordan S. Read, Sasha C. Reed, Carl D. Shapiro, Richard A. Smith, Ward E. Sanford, Terry L. Sohl, Edward G. Stets, Adam J. Terando, Donald E. Tillitt, Michael A. Tischler, Patricia L. Toccalino, David J. Wald, Mark P. Waldrop, Anne Wein, Jake F. Weltzin, Christian E. Zimmerman

Parcels versus pixels: modeling agricultural land use across broad geographic regions using parcel-based field boundaries

Land use and land cover (LULC) change occurs at a local level within contiguous ownership and management units (parcels), yet LULC models primarily use pixel-based spatial frameworks. The few parcel-based models being used overwhelmingly focus on small geographic areas, limiting the ability to assess LULC change impacts at regional to national scales. We developed a modified version of the Forecas
Terry L. Sohl, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Kristi Sayler, Robert Quenzer

Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes

Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the sci
Shuguang Liu, Ben Bond-Lamberty, Lena R. Boysen, James D. Ford, Andrew Fox, Kevin Gallo, Jerry L. Hatfield, Geoffrey M. Henebry, Thomas G. Huntington, Zhihua Liu, Thomas R. Loveland, Richard J. Norby, Terry L. Sohl, Allison L. Steiner, Wenping Yuan, Zhao Zhang, Shuqing Zhao

Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from
Terry L. Sohl, Michael Wimberly, Volker C. Radeloff, David M. Theobald, Benjamin M. Sleeter

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical land
Terry L. Sohl, Ryan R. Reker, Michelle A. Bouchard, Kristi Sayler, Jordan Dornbierer, Steve Wika, Robert Quenzer, Aaron M. Friesz

Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: a case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor

Context Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Objectives (1) Assess the relative influences of WUI expansion versus climate-driven fire regime change on spatial and temporal patterns of burned WUI, and (2) determine whether WUI developed in the future will have hig
Zhihua Liu, Michael C. Wimberly, Aashis Lamsal, Terry L. Sohl, Todd Hawbaker

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a de
Laure Vacquie, Thomas Houet, Terry L. Sohl, Ryan R. Reker, Kristi Sayler