Jay Alder
Jay Alder is a Physical Scientist based in Corvallis, Oregon with the Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center. Jay maintains a courtesy faculty position in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University.
Jay is a climate modeler with interests in past, present and future climate change, dynamically downscaling, hydroclimate, and model visualization. He is interested in helping to make climate model information accessible and useful to other scientific disciplines seeking to incorporate future climate change projections into their own work.
Professional Experience
2012-present Physical Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.
2012-present Courtesy Research Associate, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.2011-2012 Research Associate, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon.
2009-2011 Student Services, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon.
2004-2008 Software Developer, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, California.
Education and Certifications
PhD, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2011)
MS, Geography, Oregon State Univ. (2009)
BS, Environmental Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)
BS, Computer Science, Univ. of CA, Riverside (2004)
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 18
Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure
Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that...
CMIP5 MACAv2-METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2099 for the Contiguous United States CMIP5 MACAv2-METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2099 for the Contiguous United States
We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water...
SPARROW model inputs and simulated future baseflow for streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin SPARROW model inputs and simulated future baseflow for streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to estimate baseflow changes from historical (1984 - 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions. SPARROW is a spatially explicit hybrid statistical and process-based model that estimates mean...
Data release for Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (vol 1), Chapter 7. Future Water Projections for the GYA Data release for Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (vol 1), Chapter 7. Future Water Projections for the GYA
We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. The
Data release for Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets Data release for Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets
The data release consists of a single NetCDF file with results from a suite of ice sheet model simulations. We ran with Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) with input from models used in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison 3 (PMIP3). The NetCDF file contains output from model year 5000 for a limited number of variables to keep the file size reasonably small. This subset of...
Data Release for The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow-dominated regions of the western U.S. on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data Data Release for The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow-dominated regions of the western U.S. on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data
Climate change information simulated by global climate models is downscaled using statistical methods to translate spatially course regional projections to finer resolutions needed by researchers and managers to assess local climate impacts. Several statistical downscaling methods have been developed over the past fifteen years, resulting in multiple datasets derived by different methods...
Filter Total Items: 29
Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States
Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Annie L. Putman, Jay R. Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel K. Jones, Daniel R. Wise
Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon...
Authors
Maureen Walczak, Alan Mix, Ellen Cowan, Stewart Fallon, Keith Fitfield, Jay R. Alder, Jianghui Du, Brian Haley, Tim Hobern, June Padman, Summer K. Praetorius, Andreas Schmittner, Joseph Stoner, Sarah Zellers
Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections
The goal of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit’s (CRT) Climate Explorer (CE) is to provide information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to help practitioners gain insights into the risks posed by climate change. Ultimately, these insights can lead to groups of local stakeholders taking action to build their resilience to a changing climate. Using CE, decision-makers can...
Authors
Fredric Lipschultz, David Herring, Andrea J. Ray, Jay R. Alder, LuAnn Dahlman, Arthur DeGaetano, James F. Fox, Edward Gardiner, Jamie Herring, Jeff Hicks, Forrest Melton, Philip E. Morefield, William Sweet
Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change
We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, R Reker, Jay R. Alder, Thomas Loveland, Debra A. Willard, Christopher E. Bernhardt, Eric T. Sundquist, Renee L. Thompson
The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data
We assess monthly temperature and precipitation data produced by four statistically based techniques that were used to downscale general circulation models (GCMs) in the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We drive a simple water-balance model with the downscaled data to demonstrate the effect of the methods on the cold season hydrology of three...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets
We apply the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) to determine the extent to which the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) temperature and precipitation climatologies from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) simulations support the large North American ice sheets that were prescribed as a boundary condition. We force CISM2 with eight PMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs)...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America
We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jay R. Alder
A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era
This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream...
Authors
Jessica R. Rodysill, Lesleigh Anderson, Thomas M. Cronin, Miriam C. Jones, Robert S. Thompson, David B. Wahl, Debra A. Willard, Jason A. Addison, Jay R. Alder, Katherine H. Anderson, Lysanna Anderson, John A. Barron, Christopher E. Bernhardt, Steven W. Hostetler, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Nicole Khan, Julie N. Richey, Scott W. Starratt, Laura E. Strickland, Michael Toomey, Claire C. Treat, G. Lynn Wingard
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Energy Resources Program, Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program, Mineral Resources Program, National Laboratories Program, Science and Decisions Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid
We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Jay R. Alder
Web based visualization of large climate data sets Web based visualization of large climate data sets
We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium time slices at 3000-year intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth–Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), continental ice sheets, and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 3.8 ◦C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Paleoclimate Paleoclimate
As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial...
Authors
Patrick J. Bartlein, Steven W. Hostetler, Jay R. Alder
Non-USGS Publications**
Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D., Schmittner, A., 2011, Evaluation of a present day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 69- 83, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 18
Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure Data release for Coastal paleogeography of the Pacific Northwest, USA, for the last 12,000 years accounting for three-dimensional Earth structure
Here we use RSL predictions from a 3-D solid Earth model that have been validated by RSL data to update previous paleogeographic reconstructions of the OR-WA coast for the last 12 kyr based on a 1-D solid Earth model. The large differences in the spatial variations in RSL on the OR-WA continental shelves predicted by the 3-D model relative to eustatic and 1-D models demonstrate that...
CMIP5 MACAv2-METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2099 for the Contiguous United States CMIP5 MACAv2-METDATA Monthly Water Balance Model Projections 1950-2099 for the Contiguous United States
We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Contiguous United States. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water...
SPARROW model inputs and simulated future baseflow for streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin SPARROW model inputs and simulated future baseflow for streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin
The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to estimate baseflow changes from historical (1984 - 2012) to thirty-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2080 under warm/wet, median, and hot/dry climatic conditions. SPARROW is a spatially explicit hybrid statistical and process-based model that estimates mean...
Data release for Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (vol 1), Chapter 7. Future Water Projections for the GYA Data release for Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment (vol 1), Chapter 7. Future Water Projections for the GYA
We apply a monthly water-balance model (MWBM) to simulate components of the water balance for the period 1950-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. We use the statistically downscaled MACAv2-METDATA temperature and precipitation data from 20 GCMs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) as input to the water balance model. The
Data release for Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets Data release for Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets
The data release consists of a single NetCDF file with results from a suite of ice sheet model simulations. We ran with Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) with input from models used in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison 3 (PMIP3). The NetCDF file contains output from model year 5000 for a limited number of variables to keep the file size reasonably small. This subset of...
Data Release for The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow-dominated regions of the western U.S. on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data Data Release for The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow-dominated regions of the western U.S. on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data
Climate change information simulated by global climate models is downscaled using statistical methods to translate spatially course regional projections to finer resolutions needed by researchers and managers to assess local climate impacts. Several statistical downscaling methods have been developed over the past fifteen years, resulting in multiple datasets derived by different methods...
Filter Total Items: 29
Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States
Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate...
Authors
Olivia L. Miller, Annie L. Putman, Jay R. Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel K. Jones, Daniel R. Wise
Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans Phasing of millennial-scale climate variability in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
New radiocarbon and sedimentological results from the Gulf of Alaska document recurrent millennial-scale episodes of reorganized Pacific Ocean ventilation synchronous with rapid Cordilleran Ice Sheet discharge, indicating close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics spanning the past 42,000 years. Ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific tracks strength of the Asian monsoon...
Authors
Maureen Walczak, Alan Mix, Ellen Cowan, Stewart Fallon, Keith Fitfield, Jay R. Alder, Jianghui Du, Brian Haley, Tim Hobern, June Padman, Summer K. Praetorius, Andreas Schmittner, Joseph Stoner, Sarah Zellers
Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections Climate explorer: Improved access to local climate projections
The goal of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit’s (CRT) Climate Explorer (CE) is to provide information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to help practitioners gain insights into the risks posed by climate change. Ultimately, these insights can lead to groups of local stakeholders taking action to build their resilience to a changing climate. Using CE, decision-makers can...
Authors
Fredric Lipschultz, David Herring, Andrea J. Ray, Jay R. Alder, LuAnn Dahlman, Arthur DeGaetano, James F. Fox, Edward Gardiner, Jamie Herring, Jeff Hicks, Forrest Melton, Philip E. Morefield, William Sweet
Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change Application of a regional climate model to assess changes in the climatology of the Eastern US and Cuba associated with historic landcover change
We examine the annual, seasonal, monthly, and diurnal climate responses to the land use change (LUC) in eastern United States and Cuba during four epochs (1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992) with ensemble simulations conducted with the RegCM4 regional climate model that includes the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e) surface physics package (Dickinson et al., 1993). We derived the...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, R Reker, Jay R. Alder, Thomas Loveland, Debra A. Willard, Christopher E. Bernhardt, Eric T. Sundquist, Renee L. Thompson
The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data
We assess monthly temperature and precipitation data produced by four statistically based techniques that were used to downscale general circulation models (GCMs) in the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We drive a simple water-balance model with the downscaled data to demonstrate the effect of the methods on the cold season hydrology of three...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets Applying the Community Ice Sheet Model to evaluate PMIP3 LGM climatologies over the North American ice sheets
We apply the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM2) to determine the extent to which the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) temperature and precipitation climatologies from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 3 (PMIP3) simulations support the large North American ice sheets that were prescribed as a boundary condition. We force CISM2 with eight PMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs)...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America
We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jay R. Alder
A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era A North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) of the Common Era
This study presents a synthesis of century-scale hydroclimate variations in North America for the Common Era (last 2000 years) using new age models of previously published multiple proxy-based paleoclimate data. This North American Hydroclimate Synthesis (NAHS) examines regional hydroclimate patterns and related environmental indicators, including vegetation, lake water elevation, stream...
Authors
Jessica R. Rodysill, Lesleigh Anderson, Thomas M. Cronin, Miriam C. Jones, Robert S. Thompson, David B. Wahl, Debra A. Willard, Jason A. Addison, Jay R. Alder, Katherine H. Anderson, Lysanna Anderson, John A. Barron, Christopher E. Bernhardt, Steven W. Hostetler, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Nicole Khan, Julie N. Richey, Scott W. Starratt, Laura E. Strickland, Michael Toomey, Claire C. Treat, G. Lynn Wingard
By
Water Resources Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Energy Resources Program, Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program, Mineral Resources Program, National Laboratories Program, Science and Decisions Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid Implementation and evaluation of a monthly water balance model over the US on an 800 m grid
We simulate the 1950–2010 water balance for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) with a monthly water balance model (MWBM) using the 800 m Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set as model input. We employed observed snow and streamflow data sets to guide modification of the snow and potential evapotranspiration components in the default model and to evaluate...
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Jay R. Alder
Web based visualization of large climate data sets Web based visualization of large climate data sets
We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model
We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium time slices at 3000-year intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth–Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), continental ice sheets, and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 3.8 ◦C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall...
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Paleoclimate Paleoclimate
As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial...
Authors
Patrick J. Bartlein, Steven W. Hostetler, Jay R. Alder
Non-USGS Publications**
Alder, J.R., Hostetler, S.W., Pollard, D., Schmittner, A., 2011, Evaluation of a present day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 69- 83, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-69-2011.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.