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Vijay P Patil, Ph.D.

Population Ecology, Ecosystem Modeling, Arctic Climate Change, Ecohydrology, Trophic mismatch

I study Arctic wildlife and ecosystems with collaborators at the Alaska Science Center, Department of Interior agencies, and other state and local partners. My research focuses on four components: Vital rate estimation and demographic modeling, GIS spatial analyses to test hypotheses about wildlife movement patterns and habitat associations, ecosystems research, and analytical software development. I have used field and remote sensing data to model the distribution and abundance of polar bear dens, measure goose forage availability in Arctic wetlands, and design habitat protection scenarios to help mitigate potential impacts of oil and gas development on Alaskan waterfowl. I also recently developed an R package for working with phytoplankton taxonomic and functional trait data, as part of a collaborative effort to understand how climate change and extreme weather events affect lake ecosystems and phytoplankton communities. Current projects include development of a Bayesian hierarchical integrated population model (IPM) to evaluate the effects of phenology mismatch and density dependence on Arctic-breeding goose populations.

Professional Experience

  • December 2015 – Present Wildlife Biologist, USGS, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK

  • 2012 – 2015 Graduate Research Assistant, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK

  • 2010 – 2012 Field Crew Leader, Lab Supervisor, USGS Yukon River Basin Project

  • 2010 Research Technician, USFWS BSEIRP Project, St. George AK

  • 2007 – 2010 Teaching Assistant, Biology Department, University of Alberta

  • 2006 Research Technician, various projects, USFWS/USGS, AK and Greenland

  • 2005 – 2006 Intern, PRBO Conservation Science, Cape Crozier, Antarctica

  • 2005 Biological Science Technician, USNPS, King's Canyon Natl. Park, CA

Education and Certifications

  • Ph.D. 2018 University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK Biology and Wildlife

  • M.Sc. 2010 University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta Biological Sciences

  • B.S. 2005 Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Natural Resources

Affiliations and Memberships*

  • GLEON (Global Lake Ecology Observation Network)

  • Co-PI, GEISHA (Global Evaluation of the Impacts of Storms on Freshwater Habitat and Structure of Phytoplankton Assemblages), USGS Powell Center Working Group

Science and Products

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Pacific Brant family in Alaska

Annual Data and Model-based Estimates of Pacific Black Brant Age Ratios

Pacific brant are an Arctic-breeding sea goose that stage and feed on seagrasses during the non-breeding season in coastal areas of Alaska. Brant are an important subsistence and sport harvest species and the focus of several population surveys by state and federal agencies. Each fall the entire population stages during migration in Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, presenting a unique opportunity to survey...
By
Alaska Science Center
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Annual Data and Model-based Estimates of Pacific Black Brant Age Ratios

Pacific brant are an Arctic-breeding sea goose that stage and feed on seagrasses during the non-breeding season in coastal areas of Alaska. Brant are an important subsistence and sport harvest species and the focus of several population surveys by state and federal agencies. Each fall the entire population stages during migration in Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, presenting a unique opportunity to survey...
Learn More
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Sampling a stream in the mist in the Akilik River drainage

Ecosystems Analytics

Ecosystems Analytics is a group of quantitative biologists and research statisticians with a diverse range of expertise and experience (summarized below). We collaborate with internal and external partners to answer challenging ecological questions that are a high priority of the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center, sister agencies within the Department of the Interior (DOI), and various...
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Alaska Science Center
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Ecosystems Analytics

Ecosystems Analytics is a group of quantitative biologists and research statisticians with a diverse range of expertise and experience (summarized below). We collaborate with internal and external partners to answer challenging ecological questions that are a high priority of the U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center, sister agencies within the Department of the Interior (DOI), and various...
Learn More
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Global Evaluation of the Impacts of Storms on freshwater Habitat and Structure of phytoplankton Assemblages (GEISHA)

Climate change is expected to cause more intense and frequent extreme weather events, but we only have a basic understanding of how these events might alter freshwater systems. Storms are likely to impact lake systems through delivery of sediments from watersheds and mixing of the water column, both of which could have important consequences for phytoplankton. Phytoplankton are the base of the foo
By
John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Global Evaluation of the Impacts of Storms on freshwater Habitat and Structure of phytoplankton Assemblages (GEISHA)

Climate change is expected to cause more intense and frequent extreme weather events, but we only have a basic understanding of how these events might alter freshwater systems. Storms are likely to impact lake systems through delivery of sediments from watersheds and mixing of the water column, both of which could have important consequences for phytoplankton. Phytoplankton are the base of the foo
Learn More

Soil and Vegetation Data from Lake-Margin Wetlands in the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge

This data release provides seven datasets of soil and vegetation data from lake margin soils from throughout the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. Data includes multiple lakes that are defined as either stable or drying. Lake margin vegetation communities include graminoid, shrub, and forest. Sols are separated into organic and mineral layers. Microbial data includes different phospholipid fat
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Alaska Science Center

Arthropod Abundance Data from the Colville River Delta, Alaska

This data release contains information on the seasonal diversity and abundance of arthropods collected at the Colville River Delta, Alaska, 2011-2012 and 2014-2107. Researchers with the US Geological Survey began studying the reproductive ecology of birds at a site on the Colville River near the Beaufort Sea coast in 2011. Researchers concurrently collected arthropods at 3-day intervals to underst
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Alaska Science Center

Environmental Data from the Colville River Delta, Alaska

This data release contains two tables with information on seasonal values for temperature, wind, and snow cover collected at the Colville River Delta, Alaska, 2011-2018. Researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey used an on-site weather station to automatically record the temperature and speed and direction of the wind across the duration of their field season. Researchers also established perman
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Alaska Science Center

Avian Demographic Data from the Colville River Delta, Alaska

This data release contains multiple tables with information on avian demographics collected at the Colville River Delta, Alaska, 2011-2018. Researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey began studying the reproductive ecology of birds at a site on the Colville River near the Beaufort Sea coast in 2011. Researchers monitored the nests of geese, shorebirds, and landbirds at this study site, determinin
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Alaska Science Center

Temporal Viral Viability Data from Avian Influenza A Viruses Maintained in Alaska Wetlands Under Experimental and Environmental Conditions

Data sets containing: (1) sample collection and influenza A virus (IAV) screening information for wild ducks, (2) water temperature data from four wetlands within the Izembek National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, USA (3) water quality measurement from four wetlands within the Izembek National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, USA, (4) genetic sequence data for IAVs recovered from replicate samples of wild
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Environmental Health Program, Alaska Science Center

Data and Model-based Estimates from Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) Fall Age Ratio Surveys at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska

These data are in two tables relating to fall age ratios (number of juvenile birds : total birds aged) of Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) staging in Izembek Lagoon, Alaska since 1963. The first file is observation data for the birds' age classes during surveys and associated survey characteristics. The second file contains model-based estimates of age ratios by year along with SE, and 95%
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Alaska Science Center

Habitat Selection Scenarios for Molting Waterfowl in the Goose Molting Area of the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, for NPR-A Integrated Activity Plan/Environmental Impact Statement (2020)

The dataset consists of a polygon shapefile. Each polygon represents a set of molt units (interconnected lakes used as habitat by molting waterfowl) within the Goose Molting Area of the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area in northern Alaska, in addition to a half-mile or 1-mile wide buffer, that were selected for restrictions on new surface occupancy or infrastructure development by the oil and gas indust
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Alaska Science Center
Aerial survey for Black Brant at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program
USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program
Aerial survey for Black Brant at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska

USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program

USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program

The USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics program is a group of quantitative biologists and research statisticians who provide analytical support to USGS scientists to answer challenging ecological topics and management questions for USGS partners.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center, Alaska Science Center
Aerial survey for Black Brant at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska

USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program

USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics Program

The USGS Alaska Science Center Ecosystems Analytics program is a group of quantitative biologists and research statisticians who provide analytical support to USGS scientists to answer challenging ecological topics and management questions for USGS partners.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center, Alaska Science Center
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird. Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist
Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird.

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist

Wildlife Biologist Vijay Patil explores the effects of climate change and shifting seasons on Arctic-nesting waterfowl.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird.

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist

Wildlife Biologist Vijay Patil explores the effects of climate change and shifting seasons on Arctic-nesting waterfowl.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird. AD icon in corner. Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)
Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird. AD icon in corner.

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)

Wildlife Biologist Vijay Patil explores the effects of climate change and shifting seasons on Arctic-nesting waterfowl.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Communications and Publishing
Misty pine trees overlaid with a photo of a smiling man in warm clothes holding a sea bird. AD icon in corner.

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)

Climate Science Champions, Season 1: Vijay Patil, Wildlife Biologist (AD)

Wildlife Biologist Vijay Patil explores the effects of climate change and shifting seasons on Arctic-nesting waterfowl.

By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Communications and Publishing
Filter Total Items: 16

Disparate data streams together yield novel survival estimates of Alaska-breeding Whimbrels

Survival estimates are critical components of avian ecology. In well-intentioned efforts to maximize the utility of one's research, survival estimates often derive from data that were not originally collected for survival assessments, and such post hoc analyses may include unintentional biases. We estimated the survival of Whimbrels captured and marked at two breeding sites in Alaska using diverge
Authors
Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Christopher M. Harwood, T. Lee Tibbitts, Vijay P. Patil
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Alaska Science Center

Modeling the spatial and temporal dynamics of land-based polar bear denning in Alaska

Although polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation have commonly created maternal dens on sea ice in the past, maternal dens on land have become increasingly prevalent as sea ice declines. This trend creates conditions for increased human–bear interactions associated with local communities and industrial activity. Maternal denning is a vulnerable period in the
Authors
Vijay P. Patil, George M. Durner, David C. Douglas, Todd C. Atwood
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Prioritizing habitats based on abundance and distribution of molting waterfowl in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) encompasses more than 9.5 million hectares of federally managed land on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, where it supports a diversity of wildlife, including millions of migratory birds. Within the NPR-A, Teshekpuk Lake and the surrounding area provide important habitat for migratory birds and this area has been designated by the Bureau
Authors
Paul L. Flint, Vijay P. Patil, Bradley Shults, Sarah J. Thompson
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Arctic geese in North America

Multiple species of geese spend part of their annual cycle in the circumpolar Arctic and serve as a source of nutrition and cultural affirmation for many peoples. Arctic geese function as important indicators of environmental changes and some species also have the potential to alter ecosystem processes when they become overabundant. In 2022, despite an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza
Authors
John M. Pearce, Josh Dooley, Vijay P. Patil, Todd L. Sformo, Bryan Daniels, Andy Greene, Jim Leafloor
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Life-history attributes of Arctic-breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life-history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic-breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high-latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black b
Authors
Daniel R. Ruthrauff, Vijay P. Patil, Jerry W. Hupp, David H. Ward
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Evidence for interannual persistence of infectious influenza A viruses in Alaska wetlands

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) deposited by wild birds into the environment may lead to sporadic mortality events and economically costly outbreaks among domestic birds. There is a paucity of information, however, regarding the persistence of infectious IAVs within the environment following deposition. In this investigation, we assessed the persistence of 12 IAVs that were present in the cloaca and/or
Authors
Andrew M. Ramey, Andrew B. Reeves, Benjamin Joel Lagassé, Vijay P. Patil, Laura E. Hubbard, Dana W. Kolpin, R. Blaine McCleskey, Deborah A. Repert, David E. Stallknecht, Rebecca L. Poulson
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Toxic Substances Hydrology, Alaska Science Center, Central Midwest Water Science Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

The extent and variability of storm‐induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long‐term and high‐frequency data

The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind‐induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long‐term a
Authors
Jonathan P. Doubek, Orlane Anneville, Gael Dur, Aleksandra M. Lewandowska, Vijay P. Patil, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Christian T. Seltmann, Dietmar Straile, Pablo Urrutia‐Cordero, Patrick Venail, Rita Adrian, Maria B. Alfonso, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Elvira de Eyto, Heidrun Feuchtmayr, Evelyn Gaiser, Scott F Girdner, Jennifer L. Graham, Hans-Peter Grossart, Josef Hejzlar, Stéphan Jacquet, Georgiy Kirillin, María E. Llames, Shin-Ichiro S. Matsuzaki, Emily Nodine, Maria Cintia Piccolo, Donald C. Pierson, Alon Rimmer, Lars G. Rudstam, Steven Sadro, Hilary M. Swain, Stephen J. Thackeray, Wim Thiery, Piet Verburg, Tamar Zohary, Jason D. Stockwell
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and cities
Authors
Mark P. Waldrop, Lesleigh Anderson, Mark Dornblaser, Li H. Erikson, Ann E. Gibbs, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Stephanie R. James, Miriam C. Jones, Joshua C. Koch, Mary-Cathrine Leewis, Kristen L. Manies, Burke J. Minsley, Neal J. Pastick, Vijay Patil, Frank Urban, Michelle A. Walvoord, Kimberly P. Wickland, Christian Zimmerman
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Natural Hazards Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Volcano Science Center

Analyses on subpopulation abundance and annual number of maternal dens for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

The long-term persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) is threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently providing an opportunity in the Arctic for increased anthropogenic activities including natural resource extraction. Mitigating the risk of those activities, which can adversely affect the population dynamics of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation, is an e
Authors
Todd C. Atwood, Jeffrey F. Bromaghin, Vijay P. Patil, George M. Durner, David C. Douglas, Kristin S. Simac
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Prioritizing habitats based on abundance and distribution of molting waterfowl in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

The National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A) encompasses more than 9.5 million hectares of federally managed land on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, where it supports a diversity of wildlife, including millions of migratory birds. Within the NPR-A, Teshekpuk Lake and the surrounding area provide important habitat for migratory birds, including large numbers of waterfowl and shoreb
Authors
Paul L. Flint, Vijay Patil, Bradley Shults, Sarah J. Thompson
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Land Management Research Program, Alaska Science Center

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of
Authors
Jason D. Stockwell, Jonathan P. Doubek, Rita Adrian, Orlane Anneville, Cayelan C. Carey, Laurence Carvalho, Marieke A. Frassl, Lisette N. De Senerpont Domis, Bas W Ibelings, Hans-Peter Grossart, Gaël Dur, Marc J. Lajeunesse, Aleksandra M. Lewandowska, María E. Llames, Shin-Ichiro S. Matsuzaki, Emily Nodine, Peeter Noges, Vijay P. Patil, Francesco Pomati, Karsten Rinke, Lars G. Rudstam, James A. Rusak, Nico Salmaso, Christian T. Seltmann, Dietmar Straile, Stephen J. Thackeray, Wim Thiery, Pablo Urrutia‐Cordero, Patrick Venail, Piet Verburg, R. Iestyn Woolway, Tamar Zohary, Mikkel R. Andersen, Ruchi Bhattacharya, J. Hejzlar, Nasime Janatian, Alfred T. N. K. Kpodonu, Tanner J. Williamson, Harriet Wilson
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

Visualizing populations of North American sea ducks: Maps to guide research and management planning

North American sea ducks generally breed in mid- to northern-latitude regions and nearly all rely upon marine habitats for much of their annual cycle. Most sea duck species remained poorly studied until the 1990s when declines were noted in several species and populations. Subsequent research, much of which was funded by the Sea Duck Joint Venture, began in the late 1990s with an emphasis on defin
Authors
John M. Pearce, Paul L. Flint, Mary E. Whalen, Sarah A. Sonsthagen, Josh Stiller, Vijay P. Patil, Timothy D. Bowman, Sean Boyd, Shannon S. Badzinski, H.G. Gilchrist, Scott G. Gilliland, Christine Lepage, Pam Loring, Daniel McAuley, Nic McLellan, Jason Osenkowski, Eric T. Reed, Anthony J. Roberts, Myra Robertson, Tom Rothe, David E. Safine, Emily D. Silverman, Kyle A. Spragens
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Alaska Science Center

Eelgrass Biomass Model

This code release contains R and JAGS code for estimating average eelgrass biomass at two lagoons (Izembek and Kinzarof) within the Izembek National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, using data from point count surveys conducted by National Wildlife Refuge and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel. Biomass is estimated using a gamma hurdle model which models the probability of occurrence and eelgrass abu
By
Alaska Science Center

algaeClassify

The goal of algaeClassify is to facilitate the analysis of taxonomic and functional trait data for phytoplankton.
By
Alaska Science Center

Bayesian Hierarchical Model of Whimbrel Survival

This model combines resighting data from Whimbrels breeding at Kanuti National Wildlife Refuge with known-fate data and pseudo-resighting history from Whimbrels breeding at the Colville River Delta ('colv'). All Whimbrels in the study (n = 76) were marked with a USGS metal band and a uniquely coded engraved leg flag. In addition, 15 Whimbrels at Kanuti were equipped with surgically implanted satel
By
Alaska Science Center

Code for analysis of polar bear maternal den abundance and distribution in four regions of northern Alaska and Canada within the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation boundary (1982-2015)

We have archived the derived data files and R/JAGS code for our analysis as a U.S. Geological Survey data release (link ). The code is divided into three R scripts: 1) pbdens_landdens_JWM.r contains R code for fitting hierarchical Bayesian models of polar bear maternal den abundance and distribution for the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation, 1982-2015. This script requires the installation
By
Alaska Science Center

Science and Products

*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government