Publications
Publications related to Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Recovery Activities.
Filter Total Items: 50
Evaluation of debris-flow building damage forecasts
Reliable forecasts of building damage due to debris flows may provide situational awareness and guide land and emergency management decisions. Application of debris-flow runout models to generate such forecasts requires combining hazard intensity predictions with fragility functions that link hazard intensity with building damage. In this study, we evaluated the performance of building damage fore
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Christopher R. Miller, Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean
Tropical or extratropical cyclones: What drives the compound flood hazard, impact, and risk for the United States Southeast Atlantic coast?
Subtropical coastlines are impacted by both tropical and extratropical cyclones. While both may lead to substantial damage to coastal communities, it is difficult to determine the contribution of tropical cyclones to coastal flooding relative to that of extratropical cyclones. We conduct a large-scale flood hazard and impact assessment across the subtropical Southeast Atlantic Coast of the United
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Kai Alexander Parker, Jennifer Anne Thomas, Andrea O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Robert T. McCall, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Amy C. Foxgrover, Wouter Klessens, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Chris Massey
The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications
The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increase
Authors
Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Edward H. Field, Morgan P. Moschetti, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Kevin R. Milner, Sanaz Rezaeian, Arthur Frankel, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Jason M. Altekruse, Sean Kamran Ahdi, Kyle Withers, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Robert E. Chase, Leah M. Salditch, Nicolas Luco, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Julie A Herrick, Demi Leafar Girot, Brad T. Aagaard, Adrian Bender, Michael Blanpied, Richard W. Briggs, Oliver S. Boyd, Brandon Clayton, Christopher DuRoss, Eileen L. Evans, Peter J. Haeussler, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Kaj M. Johnson, Zachary Alan Kortum, N. Simon Kwong, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry (Ben) Mason, Daniel McNamara, Devin McPhillips, P. Okubo, Morgan T. Page, Fred Pollitz, Justin Rubinstein, Bruce E. Shaw, Zheng-Kang Shen, Brian Shiro, James Andrew Smith, William J. Stephenson, Eric M. Thompson, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Erin Wirth, Robert C. Witter
How long do runoff-generated debris-flow hazards persist after wildfire?
Runoff-generated debris flows are a potentially destructive and deadly response to wildfire until sufficient vegetation and soil-hydraulic recovery have reduced susceptibility to the hazard. Elevated debris-flow susceptibility may persist for several years, but the controls on the timespan of the susceptible period are poorly understood. To evaluate the connection between vegetation recovery and d
Authors
Andrew Paul Graber, Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean
Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models
In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the fi
Authors
Sanne Muis, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, José A. Á. Antolínez, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li H. Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea C. O'Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan
Runout model evaluation based on back-calculation of building damage
We evaluated the ability of three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO2D and D-Claw) to
predict the number of damaged buildings in simulations of the 9 January 2019 Montecito, California, debris-flow event. Observations of building damage after the event were combined with OpenStreetMap building footprints to construct a database of all potentially impacted buildings. At the estimated event volum
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Jason W. Kean
Postfire hydrologic response along the central California (USA) coast: Insights for the emergency assessment of postfire debris-flow hazards
The steep, tectonically active terrain along the Central California (USA) coast is well known to produce deadly and destructive debris flows. However, the extent to which fire affects debris-flow susceptibility in this region is an open question. We documented the occurrence of postfire debris floods and flows following the landfall of a storm that delivered intense rainfall across multiple burn a
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Jason W. Kean, Scott W. McCoy, Donald N. Lindsay, Jaime Kostelnik, David B. Cavagnaro, Francis K. Rengers, Amy E. East, Jonathan Schwartz, Douglas P. Smith, Brian D. Collins
The rainfall intensity-duration control of debris flows after wildfire
Increased wildfire activity in the western United States has exposed regional gaps in our understanding of postfire debris-flow generation. To address this problem, we characterized flows in an unstudied area to test the rainfall intensity-duration control of the hazard. Our rainfall measurements and field observations from the northern Sierra Nevada (California, USA) show that debris flows result
Authors
Matthew A. Thomas, Donald N. Lindsay, David B. Cavagnaro, Jason W. Kean, Scott W. McCoy, Andrew Paul Graber
User needs assessment for postfire debris-flow inundation hazard products
Debris flows are a type of mass movement that is more likely after wildfires, and while existing hazard assessments evaluate the rainfall intensities that are likely to trigger debris flows, no operational hazard assessment exists for identifying the areas where they will run out after initiation. Fifteen participants who work in a wide range of job functions associated with southern California po
Authors
Katherine R. Barnhart, Veronica Romero, Katherine R. Clifford
Simulating debris flow and levee formation in the 2D shallow flow model D-Claw: Channelized and unconfined flow
Debris flow runout poses a hazard to life and infrastructure. The expansion of human population into mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans increases the need to predict and mitigate debris flow runout hazards. Debris flows on unconfined alluvial fans can exhibit spontaneous self-channelization through levee formation that reduces lateral spreading and extends runout distances compared to unchan
Authors
Ryan P. Jones, Francis K. Rengers, Katherine R. Barnhart, David L. George, Dennis M. Staley, Jason W. Kean
Toward next-generation lava flow forecasting: Development of a fast, physics-based lava propagation model
During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical as
Authors
David M.R. Hyman, Hannah R. Dietterich, Matthew R. Patrick
Spaceborne InSAR mapping of landslides and subsidence in rapidly deglaciating terrain, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve and vicinity, Alaska and British Columbia
The Glacier Bay area in southeastern Alaska and British Columbia, encompassing Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, has experienced rapid glacier retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age in the mid-1800s. The impact that rapid deglaciation has had on the slope stability of valley walls and on the sedimentation of fans and deltas adjacent to fjords and inlets is an ongoing research topic. Usi
Authors
Jinwook Kim, Jeffrey A. Coe, Zhong Lu, Nikita N. Avdievitch, Chad Hults