Publications

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3‐ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multifault ruptures, elastic‐rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise...

Tilting of the ground due to loading by the variable atmosphere is known to corrupt very long period horizontal seismic records (below 10 mHz) even at the quietest stations. At BFO (Black Forest Observatory, SW-Germany), the opportunity arose to study these disturbances on a variety of simultaneously operated state-of-the-art broad-band sensors. A series of time windows with clear...

The 2019 Mw 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence (July 2019) ruptured consecutively a system of high‐angle strike‐slip cross faults (northeast‐ and northwest‐trending) within 34 hr. The complex rupture mechanism was illuminated by seismological and geodetic data, bringing forward the issue of the interdependency of the two fault systems both at depth and at the surface...

In the last 10 yr, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revised its safety standards for site evaluations of nuclear installations in response to emerging fault displacement hazard evaluation practices developed in Member States. New amendments in the revised safety guidance (DS507) explicitly recommend fault displacement hazard assessment, including separate approaches for...

Earthquake magnitudes are widely relied upon measures of earthquake size. Although moment magnitude (⁠MwMw⁠) has become the established standard for moderate and large earthquakes, difficulty in reliably measuring seismic moments for small (generally MwMwMw⁠. To assess this problem, we apply coda envelope analysis to reliably determine moment magnitudes for a case study of small...

We introduce a Bayesian framework for incorporating time-varying noisy reported data on damage and loss information to update near real-time loss estimates/alerts for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Initial loss estimation by PAGER immediately following an earthquake includes several uncertainties. Historically, the PAGER...

We present an updated ground‐motion model (GMM) for MwMw 6–9 earthquakes using Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) observations of the peak ground displacement (PGD). Earthquake GMMs inform a range of Earth science and engineering applications, including source characterization, seismic hazard evaluations, loss estimates, and seismic design standards. A typical GMM is...

Earthquake hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) are increased by the presence of deep sedimentary basins that amplify and prolong ground shaking. To better understand basin and site effects on ground motions, we compile a database of recordings from crustal and intraslab earthquakes. We process 8028 records with magnitudes from 3.5 to 6.8 and hypocentral depths up to 62 km to...

No abstract available.

Since late 2018, the US Geological Survey (USGS) ground failure (GF) earthquake product has provided publicly available spatial estimates of earthquake-triggered landslide and liquefaction hazards, along with the qualitative hazard and population exposure-based alerts for M > 6 earthquakes worldwide and in near real time (within ∼30 min). Earthquake losses are oftentimes greatly...

Blind reverse faults are challenging to detect, and earthquake records can be elusive because deep fault slip does not break the surface along readily recognized scarps. The blind Reelfoot fault in the New Madrid seismic zone in the central United States has been the subject of extensive prior investigation; however, the extent of slip at the southern portion of the fault remains...

Slow-moving landslides, often with nearly imperceptible creeping motion, are an important landscape shaper and a dangerous natural hazard across the globe, yet their spatial distribution and geologic controls are still poorly known owing to a paucity of detailed, large-area observations. Here, we use interferometry of L-band satellite radar images to reveal 617 spatially large (4 × 104...