CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
Science Center Objects
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
San Francisco Bay CoSMoS study area
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF). San Francisco Bay is geographically and bathymetrically complex, necessitating many alterations to the methods used on Northern California’s outer coast.
Scenarios within San Francisco Bay are consistent with the full spectrum of SLR (0 to 2 meters, 5 meters) and storms (daily to 100-year return) used on the outer coast. However, storms events used inside the Bay were derived from numerically modeled wind-wave heights driven by down-scaled wind projections derived from one GCM (Geophsyical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] Earth System Model [ESM] 2M).
Changes from CoSMoS 2.0 for implementation within San Francisco Bay:
- Projected freshwater storm-related discharges for Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and principal tributaries through 21st century included in model simulations
- In-bay wind waves generated from high-resolution downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data
- Including the effect of ocean swell penetration in the Central Bay
- Robust flooding uncertainty determined as part of the product suite; incorporates vertical land motion (lift/subsidence), marsh accretion/erosion, flood model uncertainty, vegetation-related LiDAR error, and digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty
Collaborative Studies
The results are being directly used in climate change vulnerability studies for Marin County and San Mateo County. Projections from CoSMoS 2.1 are being used in follow-on collaborative USGS studies investigating socio-economic climate impacts and vulnerability throughout the Bay. Results from these analyses should be available soon.
Direction of extreme winds (black arrows, wind speed greater than 24 meters/second [m/s]) that produce maximum locally generated waves throughout San Francisco Bay (color shading). h, wave height.
Animation of modeled South San Francisco Bay water level during an extreme high-tide event (king tide). m, meters; MSL, mean sea level.
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
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Date published: September 15, 2021Status: ActivePS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
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Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: June 14, 2018Status: ActiveOperational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: December 26, 2011Status: ActiveCoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-...
Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finzi Hart, Juliette A.; Limber, Patrick W.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; van Ormondt, Maarten; Vitousek, Sean; Wood, Nathan J.; Hayden, Maya K.; Jones, Jeanne M.-
Date published: May 4, 2020Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
CoSMoS makes detailed predictions over large geographic scales of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat. Several versions of CoSMoS have been implemented for areas of the California coast, including Southern California, Central California, and San Francisco Bay.
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Date published: July 1, 2019Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project focused on providing California coastal resource managers and planners locally relevant, online maps and tools to help understand, visualize, and anticipate vulnerabilities to sea level rise and storms.
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Date published: October 28, 2017Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA)
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application was developed to provide users with insight on potential population, economic, land cover, and infrastructure vulnerability resulting a hazard. Interactive maps and graphics allow users to examine hazard exposure for individual communities and multiple communities and changes in hazard exposure.
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Date published: March 13, 2019New US Geological Survey-led Research Helps California Coastal Managers Prioritize Planning and Mitigation Efforts Due to Rising Seas and Storms
New U.S. Geological Survey-led coastal modeling research presents state, federal, and commercial entities with varying storm and sea level-rise scenarios to assist with planning for future infrastructure and mitigation needs along the California coast.