With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF). San Francisco Bay is geographically and bathymetrically complex, necessitating many alterations to the methods used on Northern California’s outer coast.
Scenarios within San Francisco Bay are consistent with the full spectrum of SLR (0 to 2 meters, 5 meters) and storms (daily to 100-year return) used on the outer coast. However, storms events used inside the Bay were derived from numerically modeled wind-wave heights driven by down-scaled wind projections derived from one GCM (Geophsyical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] Earth System Model [ESM] 2M).
Changes from CoSMoS 2.0 for implementation within San Francisco Bay:
- Projected freshwater storm-related discharges for Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and principal tributaries through 21st century included in model simulations
- In-bay wind waves generated from high-resolution downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data
- Including the effect of ocean swell penetration in the Central Bay
- Robust flooding uncertainty determined as part of the product suite; incorporates vertical land motion (lift/subsidence), marsh accretion/erosion, flood model uncertainty, vegetation-related LiDAR error, and digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty
Collaborative Studies
The results are being directly used in climate change vulnerability studies for Marin County and San Mateo County. Projections from CoSMoS 2.1 are being used in follow-on collaborative USGS studies investigating socio-economic climate impacts and vulnerability throughout the Bay. Results from these analyses should be available soon.
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
Below are publications associated with this project.
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
San Francisco Bay CoSMoS study area With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF). San Francisco Bay is geographically and bathymetrically complex, necessitating many alterations to the methods used on Northern California’s outer coast.
Scenarios within San Francisco Bay are consistent with the full spectrum of SLR (0 to 2 meters, 5 meters) and storms (daily to 100-year return) used on the outer coast. However, storms events used inside the Bay were derived from numerically modeled wind-wave heights driven by down-scaled wind projections derived from one GCM (Geophsyical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [GFDL] Earth System Model [ESM] 2M).
Animation of modeled South San Francisco Bay water level during an extreme high-tide event (king tide). m, meters; MSL, mean sea level. Changes from CoSMoS 2.0 for implementation within San Francisco Bay:
- Projected freshwater storm-related discharges for Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and principal tributaries through 21st century included in model simulations
- In-bay wind waves generated from high-resolution downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data
- Including the effect of ocean swell penetration in the Central Bay
- Robust flooding uncertainty determined as part of the product suite; incorporates vertical land motion (lift/subsidence), marsh accretion/erosion, flood model uncertainty, vegetation-related LiDAR error, and digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty
Collaborative Studies
The results are being directly used in climate change vulnerability studies for Marin County and San Mateo County. Projections from CoSMoS 2.1 are being used in follow-on collaborative USGS studies investigating socio-economic climate impacts and vulnerability throughout the Bay. Results from these analyses should be available soon.
Disclaimer
Direction of extreme winds (black arrows, wind speed greater than 24 meters/second [m/s]) that produce maximum locally generated waves throughout San Francisco Bay (color shading). h, wave height. Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
- Science
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario. - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance ofAuthorsKees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der WegenDynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not compAuthorsPatrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Patrick W. Limber, Andrea C. O'Neill, Maarten van Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Nathan J. Wood, Maya K. Hayden, Jeanne M. Jones - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Partners