CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
The Coastal Storm Modeling System for Southern California (CoSMoS 3.0) provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Explore interactive maps showing:
- Flood hazards on the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) web viewer, developed in partnership with Point Blue Conservation Science
- Potential effects on people, businesses, roads, and land cover through the Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) tool
Southern California Regional Collaborations
CoSMoS 3.0 modeling results have been used in numerous projects throughout Southern California. Through extensive stakeholder engagement, the CoSMoS team has partnered with many local organizations to help translate CoSMoS information and make it accessible to a broad range of audiences. Click our Partners tab to view a list of these organizations with links to their web sites.
About the CoSMoS Modeling System
CoSMoS provides a suite of 40 scenarios by combining 10 possible values for sea-level rise (0, 0.25 meter [m], 0.5 m, 0.75 m, 1.0 m, 125 m, 1.5 m. 1.75 m, 2.0 m, and 5 m) with four possible coastal storm conditions that include: daily conditions; a 1-year storm (or, 100% chance of occurring in a given year); a 20-year storm (or 5% chance); and a 100-year storm (or 1% chance).
Model enhancements for Southern California include:
- Improved system methodology from CoSMoS 1.0 for more accurate flood projections in embayments and estuaries
- Long-term coastal evolution projections for sandy beaches and cliffs, produced from a collection of state-of-the-art models and historical data
- Downscaled winds from Global Climate Model (GCM) data for estimating locally generated seas and surge
- Discharge from rivers for event response and long-term sediment supply
- An improved baseline-elevation digital elevation model (DEM) that incorporates recent LIDAR survey
Shapefiles and associated metadata of individual flood, wave, currents and shoreline change projections for all Southern California data regions are available on the USGS ScienceBase Catalog:
- Santa Barbara County
- Ventura County
- Los Angeles County
- Orange County
- San Diego County
- Channel Islands
- Shoreline change projections
- Cliff retreat projections
For a detailed technical summary of the CoSMoS modeling methodology, download CoSMoS v3.0 Southern California Bight:
Summary of Methods (2.7 MB PDF).
In addition to the GIS shapefiles and geotiffs available on the USGS ScienceBase-Catalog, all model results are also available on the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web tool to review model projections. Complementary socioeconomic information is also available through the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA), developed by Dr. Nathan Wood and Dr. Jeanne Jones from the USGS Western Geographic Science Center.
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
- Overview
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Southern California CoSMoS data regions. The Coastal Storm Modeling System for Southern California (CoSMoS 3.0) provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Explore interactive maps showing:
- Flood hazards on the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) web viewer, developed in partnership with Point Blue Conservation Science
- Potential effects on people, businesses, roads, and land cover through the Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) tool
Southern California Regional Collaborations
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Example of flood projections for San Diego as viewed on Our Coast, Our Future web viewer. CoSMoS 3.0 modeling results have been used in numerous projects throughout Southern California. Through extensive stakeholder engagement, the CoSMoS team has partnered with many local organizations to help translate CoSMoS information and make it accessible to a broad range of audiences. Click our Partners tab to view a list of these organizations with links to their web sites.
About the CoSMoS Modeling System
CoSMoS provides a suite of 40 scenarios by combining 10 possible values for sea-level rise (0, 0.25 meter [m], 0.5 m, 0.75 m, 1.0 m, 125 m, 1.5 m. 1.75 m, 2.0 m, and 5 m) with four possible coastal storm conditions that include: daily conditions; a 1-year storm (or, 100% chance of occurring in a given year); a 20-year storm (or 5% chance); and a 100-year storm (or 1% chance).
Model enhancements for Southern California include:
- Improved system methodology from CoSMoS 1.0 for more accurate flood projections in embayments and estuaries
- Long-term coastal evolution projections for sandy beaches and cliffs, produced from a collection of state-of-the-art models and historical data
- Downscaled winds from Global Climate Model (GCM) data for estimating locally generated seas and surge
- Discharge from rivers for event response and long-term sediment supply
- An improved baseline-elevation digital elevation model (DEM) that incorporates recent LIDAR survey
Shapefiles and associated metadata of individual flood, wave, currents and shoreline change projections for all Southern California data regions are available on the USGS ScienceBase Catalog:
- Santa Barbara County
- Ventura County
- Los Angeles County
- Orange County
- San Diego County
- Channel Islands
- Shoreline change projections
- Cliff retreat projections
For a detailed technical summary of the CoSMoS modeling methodology, download CoSMoS v3.0 Southern California Bight:
Summary of Methods (2.7 MB PDF).In addition to the GIS shapefiles and geotiffs available on the USGS ScienceBase-Catalog, all model results are also available on the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web tool to review model projections. Complementary socioeconomic information is also available through the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA), developed by Dr. Nathan Wood and Dr. Jeanne Jones from the USGS Western Geographic Science Center.
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
- Science
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario. - Data
- Publications
- Web Tools
- News