CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. The Southern California study area extends 470 kilometers from Pt. Conception, California (USA), south to the Mexican border and includes microtidal basins but has few significant inlets or narrow straits that would focus tidal currents in the nearshore. The coastline is highly variable in terms of its orientation (west to south facing), morphology (rocky to wide, flat beaches), structures (seawalls, jetties, groins, breakwaters, and so on), exposure (open to significant island sheltering), and backbeach development (for example, rural coast to urban beach front).
CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the three following scenarios:
ARkStorm
Initial evaluations of the CoSMoS model were performed as part of the USGS Multihazards Demonstration Project (Porter and others, 2011). A team of atmospheric scientists with expertise in west coast storms used information from two powerful west coast storms in 1969 and 1986 to simulate an extreme storm event with a recurrence interval of at least 100 years (Dettinger and others, 2011). This extreme winter scenario, entitled “ARkStorm,” provided a time-series of wind and atmospheric pressure fields that served as boundary conditions for the CoSMoS model.
[Download Southern California model projections]
January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise Scenarios
The El Niño-fueled storm of January 18–25, 2010, produced large waves (offshore deep-water waves up to 9 meters high) that remained elevated for a week, producing some of the most extreme coastal erosion observed for several decades throughout California (Barnard and others, 2011). This event provided numerous observations both for model forcing and validation, and provided managers with data from a known severe storm, thus serving as an optimal extreme-storm test case for CoSMoS. In addition to running a hindcast of this event with CoSMoS, future (2050 and 2100) sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios were also applied using the upper-end values from Rahmstorf (2007) (0.5 meter and 1.4 meter, respectively). These water levels were added to the tidal forcing for the January 2010 storm to estimate the potential for increased flooding that could result from various SLR scenarios combined with a recent, well-documented coastal storm.
[Download Southern California model projections]
January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood
An extreme high-tide event (king tide) coupled with an atmospheric low-pressure system caused significant flooding in Newport Beach on January 10, 2005. Newport Beach officials were deployed to manage the flood, and city personnel documented the flooded areas on Balboa Peninsula and Balboa Island with digital photographs. These data were interpreted and the flood extent was manually delineated using ArcGIS (Gallien and others, 2012). This represents the only known event and location where coastal flooding has been quantitatively determined along the entire U.S. west coast.
CoSMoS was run for this scenario and flood-hazard projections were compared with ground-truthed flood extents produced from city photos (see Newport Harbor figure) for model validation and to support local flood-prediction improvements.
Download Model Projections
Download a zip file containing an essential readme.txt file and model projections of two Southern California flooding hazard scenarios: ARkStorm, and January 2010 El Niño and SLR.
Southern California flooding hazard scenarios (zip, 3.6 MB)
Suggested Citation: Barnard, P.L., van Ormondt, M., Erikson, L.H., Eshleman, J., Hapke, C., Ruggiero, P., Adams, P. N., and Foxgrover, A. 2014. Coastal Storm Modeling System: CoSMoS. Southern California 1.0, projected flooding hazards, doi: 10.5066/F74B2ZB4
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
Below are publications associated with this project.
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Southern California study area. CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. The Southern California study area extends 470 kilometers from Pt. Conception, California (USA), south to the Mexican border and includes microtidal basins but has few significant inlets or narrow straits that would focus tidal currents in the nearshore. The coastline is highly variable in terms of its orientation (west to south facing), morphology (rocky to wide, flat beaches), structures (seawalls, jetties, groins, breakwaters, and so on), exposure (open to significant island sheltering), and backbeach development (for example, rural coast to urban beach front).
CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the three following scenarios:
ARkStorm
Map shows flooding and shoreline change projections in the Imperial Beach area of southern San Diego County, CA, from the ARkStorm scenario. Initial evaluations of the CoSMoS model were performed as part of the USGS Multihazards Demonstration Project (Porter and others, 2011). A team of atmospheric scientists with expertise in west coast storms used information from two powerful west coast storms in 1969 and 1986 to simulate an extreme storm event with a recurrence interval of at least 100 years (Dettinger and others, 2011). This extreme winter scenario, entitled “ARkStorm,” provided a time-series of wind and atmospheric pressure fields that served as boundary conditions for the CoSMoS model.
[Download Southern California model projections]
January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise Scenarios
Example of flooding hazards predicted from the CoSMoS hindcast of the January 2010 storm, with and without sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, in the region of Venice and Marina del Rey, CA. The El Niño-fueled storm of January 18–25, 2010, produced large waves (offshore deep-water waves up to 9 meters high) that remained elevated for a week, producing some of the most extreme coastal erosion observed for several decades throughout California (Barnard and others, 2011). This event provided numerous observations both for model forcing and validation, and provided managers with data from a known severe storm, thus serving as an optimal extreme-storm test case for CoSMoS. In addition to running a hindcast of this event with CoSMoS, future (2050 and 2100) sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios were also applied using the upper-end values from Rahmstorf (2007) (0.5 meter and 1.4 meter, respectively). These water levels were added to the tidal forcing for the January 2010 storm to estimate the potential for increased flooding that could result from various SLR scenarios combined with a recent, well-documented coastal storm.
[Download Southern California model projections]
January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood
Flooding hazards projected by CoSMoS versus ground-truthed flooding extents from the January 2005 extreme tide event in Newport Harbor, CA. The tendency for CoSMoS version 1.0 to over-predict the level of flooding in protected embayments has been addressed through model enhancements in CoSMoS version 2.0. An extreme high-tide event (king tide) coupled with an atmospheric low-pressure system caused significant flooding in Newport Beach on January 10, 2005. Newport Beach officials were deployed to manage the flood, and city personnel documented the flooded areas on Balboa Peninsula and Balboa Island with digital photographs. These data were interpreted and the flood extent was manually delineated using ArcGIS (Gallien and others, 2012). This represents the only known event and location where coastal flooding has been quantitatively determined along the entire U.S. west coast.
CoSMoS was run for this scenario and flood-hazard projections were compared with ground-truthed flood extents produced from city photos (see Newport Harbor figure) for model validation and to support local flood-prediction improvements.
Download Model Projections
Download a zip file containing an essential readme.txt file and model projections of two Southern California flooding hazard scenarios: ARkStorm, and January 2010 El Niño and SLR.
Southern California flooding hazard scenarios (zip, 3.6 MB)
Suggested Citation: Barnard, P.L., van Ormondt, M., Erikson, L.H., Eshleman, J., Hapke, C., Ruggiero, P., Adams, P. N., and Foxgrover, A. 2014. Coastal Storm Modeling System: CoSMoS. Southern California 1.0, projected flooding hazards, doi: 10.5066/F74B2ZB4
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
- Science
Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.CoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario. - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comp - Web Tools
Below are data or web applications associated with this project.
Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.