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Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay Active

By Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center June 14, 2018

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).

Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Coastal flood forecast pilot areas of CoSMoS.

In development

As part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), the Coastal Flood Forecast project aims to link watershed flood projections with CoSMoS’ ocean-based flood projections for operational and integrated coastal-flood forecasts up to 72 hours in advance of an approaching storm. Watershed flood projections are determined by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM).

The pilot project focuses on two areas within the San Francisco Bay: the Napa and Petaluma River watersheds in North Bay, and the South Bay region in vicinity of Coyote Creek and Guadalupe River. A full Bay operational model is in the scoping phase.

Model enhancements for this operational implementation include:

  • Use of a flexible-mesh model (Delft3D-FM) for increased resolution in nearshore areas and near infrastructure and flood-control features
  • Use of the latest wind and pressure fields from NWS forecasts
  • Operational connections to RDHM for indentSelected storm and precipitation events
  • Rapid coastal flooding assessment using the Rapid Flood Spreading Method (RFSM)

Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.

link
An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Learn More
link
Satellite image of study area, showing forests, a bay or inlet, and estuaries and rivers.

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
Learn More
link
Map of a western coastline with stretches of the coast labeled to identify data set regions.

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
Learn More
link
Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a bay inlet and an outline along the coast showing a study area.

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
Learn More
link
Map background with colored blocks drawn on top if it to depict data regions or study areas, each area is labeled with words.

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Learn More
link
Pulsating animation shows a bay and estuaries and changing water depth during two days' worth of tidal cycles.

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
Learn More
link
Web browser screen showing an application with different parameters and controls on left and the resulting map on right.

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
Learn More
link
Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
Learn More
link
Map of a coastal city with a harbor with colored areas drawn on top to show potential flooding extent under different scenarios.

CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
link

CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Learn More

Below are publications associated with this project.

Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay

Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of
Authors
Kees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der Wegen
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

Our Coast Our Future

Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).

By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are partners associated with this project.

Earth System Research Laboratory

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)

  • Overview

    The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).

    Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.
    Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
    Coastal flood forecast pilot areas of CoSMoS.

    In development

    As part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), the Coastal Flood Forecast project aims to link watershed flood projections with CoSMoS’ ocean-based flood projections for operational and integrated coastal-flood forecasts up to 72 hours in advance of an approaching storm. Watershed flood projections are determined by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM).

    The pilot project focuses on two areas within the San Francisco Bay: the Napa and Petaluma River watersheds in North Bay, and the South Bay region in vicinity of Coyote Creek and Guadalupe River. A full Bay operational model is in the scoping phase.

    Model enhancements for this operational implementation include:

    • Use of a flexible-mesh model (Delft3D-FM) for increased resolution in nearshore areas and near infrastructure and flood-control features
    • Use of the latest wind and pressure fields from NWS forecasts
    • Operational connections to RDHM for indentSelected storm and precipitation events
    • Rapid coastal flooding assessment using the Rapid Flood Spreading Method (RFSM)
  • Science

    Below is a link to the main project description, followed by links to all CoSMoS Applications.

    link
    An interactive mapping application in which the user can choose parameters from the menus to create a computer model of flooding

    Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
    Learn More
    link
    Satellite image of study area, showing forests, a bay or inlet, and estuaries and rivers.

    PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

    The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    PS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System

    The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
    Learn More
    link
    Map of a western coastline with stretches of the coast labeled to identify data set regions.

    CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

    CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 3.1: Central California

    CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
    Learn More
    link
    Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a bay inlet and an outline along the coast showing a study area.

    CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

    Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River

    Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
    Learn More
    link
    Map background with colored blocks drawn on top if it to depict data regions or study areas, each area is labeled with words.

    CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

    CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 3.0: Southern California

    CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
    Learn More
    link
    Pulsating animation shows a bay and estuaries and changing water depth during two days' worth of tidal cycles.

    CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

    With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay

    With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast Our Future (OCOF).
    Learn More
    link
    Web browser screen showing an application with different parameters and controls on left and the resulting map on right.

    CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

    Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)

    Our Coast Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
    Learn More
    link
    Map shows the outline of a coastal area with a large bay inlet with two oval study areas demarcated in the north and south bay.

    Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

    The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    Operational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay

    The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
    Learn More
    link
    Map of a coastal city with a harbor with colored areas drawn on top to show potential flooding extent under different scenarios.

    CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

    CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
    By
    Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
    link

    CoSMoS 1.0: Southern California

    CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
    Learn More
  • Publications

    Below are publications associated with this project.

    Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay

    Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of
    Authors
    Kees Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der Wegen
    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
  • Web Tools

    Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

    Our Coast Our Future

    Our Coast, Our Future is a partnership between Point Blue Conservation Science and USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, and was collaboratively developed with many local, state, and federal stakeholders. It is the platform for data visualization, synthesis, and download of all output products from the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS).

    By
    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
  • Partners

    Below are partners associated with this project.

    Earth System Research Laboratory

    NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)