CoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Science Center Objects
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region.
CoSMoS Northern California study area
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms in the San Francisco Bay region. As part of OCOF, CoSMoS produced a suite of coastal flooding projections for over 40 combinations of anticipated SLR and storm conditions from Bodega Bay south to Half Moon Bay; results are accessible via interactive maps overlaying infrastructure and ecosystem vulnerabilities.
Animation depicting 2-D modeled water level (blue line) and shoreline change (solid line, original beach profile in dashed line) through one tidal cycle along a beach profile near Stinson Beach, California, during a 20-year storm event with projected 1-meter of sea-level rise. Significant wave height (red) at the seaward end of the profile is shown in the upper panel.
Scenarios developed for OCOF feature the full spectrum of SLR (0 to 2 meters, 5 meters) and coastal storms (daily to 100-year return) to meet every possible management planning horizon and degree of risk. The daily, 1-, 20-, and 100-year storm events used in this work were derived from numerically modeled wave heights offshore of San Francisco that were driven by 21st century wind projections derived from an ensemble of the latest Global Climate Models (GCMs) developed for the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those offshore wave conditions, combined with tides and storm surge, are modeled down to the local level using state-of-the-art numerical modeling tools to determine coastal water levels, which are then projected onto a 2-meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate the extent of flooding.
Disclaimer
Inundated areas shown should not be used for navigation, regulatory, permitting, or other legal purposes. The U.S. Geological Survey provides these data “as is” for a quick reference, emergency planning tool but assumes no legal liability or responsibility resulting from the use of this information.
The suggestions and illustrations included in these images are intended to improve coastal-flood awareness and preparedness; however, they do not guarantee the safety of an individual or structure. The contributors and sponsors of this product do not assume liability for any injury, death, property damage, or other effects of coastal flooding.
Use of trade names in this report is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Screenshot of Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) interactive map view of Stinson Beach, California, showing extent of flooding predicted if subjected to a sea-level rise of 100 centimeters (about 40 inches) and elevated water levels caused by a 100-year storm.
Approach used in identifying future coastal flooding risk with CoSMoS. Output from relevant Global Climate Models (GCMs) is used to generate global/regional swell and waves; results are scaled down to regional and sub-regional levels using a suite of models accounting for tides, atmospheric pressure, and wind; these fine-scale results are translated as relevant hazards projections at the parcel scale, including flooding, wave heights, coastal erosion, and cliff failures.
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Date published: July 7, 2020Status: ActiveCoastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety...
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li Erikson
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Date published: October 17, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 3.1: Central California
CoSMoS v3.1 for central California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms)
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li Erikson -
Date published: September 6, 2019Status: ActivePS-CoSMoS: Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System
The CoSMoS model is currently available for most of the California coast and is now being expanded to support the 4.5 million coastal residents of the Puget Sound region, with emphasis on the communities bordering the sound.
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Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 3.0: Southern California
CoSMoS 3.0 for southern California provides detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms, integrated with predictions of long-term coastal evolution (beach changes and coastal cliff retreat) for the Southern California region, from Point Conception (Santa Barbara County) to Imperial Beach (San Diego County).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.2: Pt. Arena and Russian River
Building on the initial work in the Bay Area and Outer Coast, CoSMoS 2.2 adds river flows to help users project combined river and coastal flooding along the northern California coast from Bodega Head to Point Arena.
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.1: San Francisco Bay
With primary support from the National Estuarine Research Reserve (NERR), CoSMoS is set-up within the San Francisco Bay as part of Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: July 26, 2019Status: ActiveCoSMoS 2.0: North-central California (outer coast)
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project providing science-based decision-support tools to help coastal planners and emergency responders understand, visualize, and anticipate local impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) and storms...
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: June 14, 2018Status: ActiveOperational CoSMoS model: San Francisco Bay
The San Francisco Bay Coastal Flood Forecast pilot project is an operational CoSMoS model, part of a project funded by the California Department of Water Resources (CA-DWR) and NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL).
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center -
Date published: December 26, 2011Status: ActiveCoSMoS 1.0: Southern California
CoSMoS was initially developed and tested for the Southern California coast in collaboration with Deltares. CoSMoS has been used to assess coastal vulnerability within Southern California for the ARkStorm scenario, the January 2010 El Niño and Sea-Level Rise scenarios, and the January 2005 Newport Harbor Flood scenario.
Contacts: Patrick Barnard, Li EriksonAttribution: Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change
Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-...
Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Finzi Hart, Juliette A.; Limber, Patrick W.; O'Neill, Andrea C.; van Ormondt, Maarten; Vitousek, Sean; Wood, Nathan J.; Hayden, Maya K.; Jones, Jeanne M.-
Date published: July 1, 2019Our Coast Our Future
Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) is a collaborative, user-driven project focused on providing California coastal resource managers and planners locally relevant, online maps and tools to help understand, visualize, and anticipate vulnerabilities to sea level rise and storms.
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Date published: October 28, 2017Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA)
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application was developed to provide users with insight on potential population, economic, land cover, and infrastructure vulnerability resulting a hazard. Interactive maps and graphics allow users to examine hazard exposure for individual communities and multiple communities and changes in hazard exposure.
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Date published: March 13, 2019New US Geological Survey-led Research Helps California Coastal Managers Prioritize Planning and Mitigation Efforts Due to Rising Seas and Storms
New U.S. Geological Survey-led coastal modeling research presents state, federal, and commercial entities with varying storm and sea level-rise scenarios to assist with planning for future infrastructure and mitigation needs along the California coast.
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Date published: May 30, 2018Video cameras monitor coastal change on Whidbey Island, Washington
Video cameras installed by the USGS Remote Sensing Coastal Change project overlook the coast on Whidbey Island, Washington, about 25 miles north of Seattle.
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Date published: April 16, 2018USGS 2017 Excellence in Leadership Award honors scientists who assess coastal flooding threats
Research geologist Patrick Barnard and research oceanographer Li Erikson have been recognized for leading efforts to better assess coastal vulnerability to flooding.
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Date published: February 7, 2018USGS 360-degree videos of king tides show how rising seas will transform California beaches in the future
USGS oceanographer Juliette Finzi Hart shot 360-degree videos of king tides—the highest high tides of the year—throughout the Los Angeles region in 2016 and 2017.
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Date published: January 24, 2018TV interview with NBC Philadelphia about flooding threats to U.S. East Coast
USGS geologist Patrick Barnard gave a live interview to Philadelphia's NBC10 meteorologist Tammie Souza on January 23 during a national weather conference in Lake Tahoe, California.
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Date published: January 17, 2018USGS scientist explains how king tides provide a glimpse of future sea levels
USGS geologist Patrick Barnard spoke to the public at a “Coffee and King Tides” gathering held in Half Moon Bay, California, on December 4.