Prediction and Modeling

About the Research The Michigan Bacteriological Research Laboratory (MI-BaRL) Core Technology Team (CTT) as part of the Environmental Health Program uses a wide array of traditional and modern molecular approaches to evaluate microbial pathogens and antimicrobial resistance pathways in the environment. The scientists use these approaches to advance the understanding of how environmental...

Since 2000, the USGS and MMSD have been partners in the Milwaukee Area Watercourse Corridor Study. The USGS has applied a multi-disciplinary approach to monitor and assess stream water quality within studies of aquatic communities, geomorphology and habitat, water and sediment, and streamflow. Results are provided to MMSD and watershed management agencies for planning and decision-making.

There are many kinds of chemical, physical, and biological contaminants contained in water and sediment, and new or “emerging” contaminants are continually being discovered. USGS investigations of contaminants in the MMSD Watercourse Corridor Study include studies of PFAS, PAHs, microplastics, and wastewater contamination as well as modeling long-term trends in water quality.

Studying lakes provides an improved understanding of lake ecosystem dynamics and valuable information that helps lead to sound lake-management policies. The USGS collects hydrologic data in lake settings, studies water and nutrient budget development, conducts source-loading analysis, explores groundwater interactions, and performs lake water-quality modeling.

Groundwater is an important water resource. The USGS collects information on the quality and quantity of groundwater and conducts advanced modeling of groundwater flow and groundwater/surface-water systems. The USGS also evaluates the effects of water-use, land-use, and climate change on groundwater, surface-water, and the ecosystems that rely on them.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) lists streamflow alteration as a key stressor on aquatic life in many watersheds. However, the MPCA currently does not have the information needed to quantitatively associate metrics from Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) surveys with metrics of streamflow alteration. We are using USGS streamgage data and MPCA IBI data to develop relations between...

The USGS partnered with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources to collect hydraulic and water chemistry data in the lower St. Croix River for development of a model that predicts the probability of successful egg hatching and survival of juvenile invasive carp over a range of water temperature and streamflow conditions.

Geologic-sourced arsenic is common in Minnesota groundwater. Drinking-water managers, well owners, and well contractors need to know where and why high arsenic in groundwater is likely to occur in wells in order to take measures to protect public health. The USGS is assessing the spatial distribution of high arsenic groundwater in Minnesota, and identifying factors affecting arsenic mobilization.

Resource managers can use assessments of past and future land use to make science-based decisions. This project characterizes how changes in land use can change groundwater and surface-water flows in the St. Louis River Basin, MN. The USGS is constructing a set of groundwater models to simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions and evaluate how water flows have changed.

The TC Chamberlin Modeling Center provides one-stop access to advanced computing so no project is limited by a lack of computer power. The Center can provide hardware access, assistance with migration and implementation, and training. We also develop, test, and disseminate state-of-the-art computational and analytical techniques and tools so models can be more effectively used in decision-making.

Sediment from the Chippewa River deposits in the Mississippi River navigation channel, sometimes disrupting commercial barge traffic and resulting in expensive and ecologically disruptive dredging operations. The USGS is using new applications of hydroacoustic technologies to better understand sediment transport in the Chippewa River and associated effects on commercial navigation.

SPARROW models for the Great Lakes, Ohio River, Upper Mississippi River, and Red River Basins predict long-term mean annual loads, yields, concentrations, and source contributions of water, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment throughout the Midwest.