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Ecosystems Land Change Science Program

The Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area strives to advance the understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological components of the Earth system, the causes and consequences of ecosystem and land use change, and the vulnerability and resilience of the Earth system to such changes.

News

A 500-Year Fire History Reveals That Recent High-Severity Wildfires Could Lead to Widespread Forest Loss

A 500-Year Fire History Reveals That Recent High-Severity Wildfires Could Lead to Widespread Forest Loss

Earth Science Matters - Vol. 22, Summer 2026

Earth Science Matters - Vol. 22, Summer 2026

FORT Science in Action 2026, Part 7: Using fire history to inform fire management and future wildfire projections in the Western U.S.

FORT Science in Action 2026, Part 7: Using fire history to inform fire management and future wildfire projections in the Western U.S.

Publications

Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy

During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large-scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species...
Authors
Azzurra Pistone, Paul Henne, Petra Boltshauser-Kaltenrieder, Willy Tinner, Christoph Schworer

Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California

Uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystem models limit their predictive power. Efforts to reduce projection error have rarely focused on constraining uncertainty in the initial state of the ecosystem, however, despite evidence that matching model initial conditions to real-world observations reduces overall model bias. Here we use an integrated land change and carbon gain-loss model to...
Authors
Paul C. Selmants, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Colin J. Daniel

The Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI): Application and tradeoff analysis on Gulkana Glacier, Alaska The Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI): Application and tradeoff analysis on Gulkana Glacier, Alaska

Glacier energy-balance models offer mechanistic insights into glacier mass balance under a changing climate, yet their considerable data requirements hinder large-scale applications. Here we present the open-source Python Energy Balance model for Snow and Ice (PEBSI), which includes physically based albedo evolution using the Snow, Ice and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model. PEBSI is...
Authors
Claire V. Wilson, David R. Rounce, Louis Sass, Albin Wells, Emily H. Baker, Mark Flanner, S. Mackenzie Skiles

Science

Lemon Creek Glacier

Lemon Creek Glacier is located in southeast Alaska, at the southernmost tip of the Juneau Icefield. Glacier observations began at this site in 1953 and continue through present, serving as a central site between glaciers in the contiguous USA and those in mainland Alaska.
Lemon Creek Glacier

Lemon Creek Glacier

Lemon Creek Glacier is located in southeast Alaska, at the southernmost tip of the Juneau Icefield. Glacier observations began at this site in 1953 and continue through present, serving as a central site between glaciers in the contiguous USA and those in mainland Alaska.
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Gulkana Glacier

Gulkana Glacier is located in the high-latitude continental climate regime of Alaska’s Delta Mountains. Glacier observations began at this site in 1966 and continue through present as the northern most USGS Benchmark Glacier.
Gulkana Glacier

Gulkana Glacier

Gulkana Glacier is located in the high-latitude continental climate regime of Alaska’s Delta Mountains. Glacier observations began at this site in 1966 and continue through present as the northern most USGS Benchmark Glacier.
Learn More

Holding the Ground: Long-Term Science and Partnerships Help Protect Soil Health and Local Economies Across the Colorado Plateau

By combining long-term science with enduring partnerships, USGS is helping decision makers protect soil resources, reduce erosion risks, and steward America's public lands for future generations.
Holding the Ground: Long-Term Science and Partnerships Help Protect Soil Health and Local Economies Across the Colorado Plateau

Holding the Ground: Long-Term Science and Partnerships Help Protect Soil Health and Local Economies Across the Colorado Plateau

By combining long-term science with enduring partnerships, USGS is helping decision makers protect soil resources, reduce erosion risks, and steward America's public lands for future generations.
Learn More
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