I am a quantitative ecologist conducting scholarly research at the intersection of animal ecology, spatial analyses, and statistics.
My interests are in population ecology for animals declining in abundance, asking new questions of multiple, combined data sets to gain novel insight into the dynamics of animal populations, and translating science into guidance for practical management decisions.
Professional Experience
2014 to the present Research Ecologist, US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603
2002 to 2014 Research Statistician (Biology), US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, La Crosse, Wisconsin 54603
1995 Wildlife Biologist, United States Forest Service, Forestry Sciences Lab
Education and Certifications
PhD, Zoology, Southern Illinois University, May, 2002
MS, Zoology, University of Arkansas, May, 1998
BA, Ecology / Behavior / Evolution, University of California, San Diego, June, 1990
Science and Products
Wetland Loss: Modeling Consequences for Waterfowl Production, Recreation Use, and Economic Opportunities
Status of butterflies in the United States
TrendPowerTool: A web lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
Decision-support tool for managing endangered species in the face of uncertainty
Monarch Conservation Planning Tools
Bat Research
Integrating colony counts with NABat acoustic data to reveal the true impacts of White-Nose Syndrome on northern long-eared bats
A continental-scale study of acoustic phenology to improve population monitoring and inform management of hibernating bats
Modeling the response of cave hibernating Myotis species to white-nose syndrome mitigation tactics
Developing online integrated data visualization tools for WNS and NABat
Quantifying vulnerability of bat species to White-nose Syndrome across North America
Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse”
North American duck populations and the Central U.S. hunters who hunt them
North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Winter Abundance: Predicted Population Estimates (2022 and 2023)
White-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans spatio-temporal predictions over North America between 2007 and 2030
R code to fit Gaussian process models to white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans monitoring data across North America from 2006-2022
Blue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021
Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Simulated impacts of feather oiling on avian energetics and migration: R environment model code and raw output
Demographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code
R code: Landscape- and local-level variables associated with monarch breeding occurrence and abundance at patches in Wisconsin grasslands
Potential economic consequences along migratory flyways from reductions in breeding habitat of migratory waterbirds
Survival of Common Loon chicks appears unaffected by Bald Eagle recovery in northern Minnesota
The benefits of big-team science for conservation: Lessons learned from trinational monarch butterfly collaborations
Change in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers
Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
Migration and energetics model predicts delayed migration and likely starvation in oiled waterbirds
Using ecosystem services to identify inequitable outcomes in migratory species conservation
Early treatment of white-nose syndrome is necessary to stop population decline
Status and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019
• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends
Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation
Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model
Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands
BatTool R package
Applying Simulated Treatments to Bat Populations Experiencing Severe White-nose Syndrome Mortality
GRTS for Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program Code
Science and Products
- Science
Filter Total Items: 20
Wetland Loss: Modeling Consequences for Waterfowl Production, Recreation Use, and Economic Opportunities
Amendments to the Clean Water Act in 1972 established federal jurisdiction over “navigable waters,” defined in the Act as the “waters of the United States.” A revised definition of the Waters of the U.S. rule took effect on 20 March 2023. However, various legal challenges precluded implementation of the new definition. On 25 May 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court, in the case of Sackett et ux. v...Status of butterflies in the United States
The pervasive nature of insect species’ declines has led to the specter of an “Insect Armageddon” in the popular press. Insect-derived ecosystem services are valued at > $57 billion in the U.S. and thus the loss of insects has the potential to fundamentally disrupt natural and economic systems.The causes of insect declines have been linked to changes in climate, land use and pesticide use, but the...TrendPowerTool: A web lookup tool for estimating the statistical power of a monitoring program to detect population trends
A simulation-based power analysis can be used to estimate the sample sizes needed for a successful monitoring program, but requires technical expertise and sometimes extensive computing resources. We developed a web-based lookup app, called TrendPowerTool, to provide guidance for ecological monitoring programs when resources are not available for a simulation-based power analysis (Fig. 1)...Decision-support tool for managing endangered species in the face of uncertainty
Along the Santa Clara River in California, populations of the federally and state-listed Least Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii pusillus) are recovering from near extirpation. Habitat protection and restoration, as well as reducing brood parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater), are thought to be the primary drivers of this recovery. The challenge going forward is to find the right balance...Monarch Conservation Planning Tools
Monarch Conservation Planning ToolsBat Research
White-nose syndrome (WNS) caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) has decimated hibernating bat populations across North America since it emerged 10 years ago in New York. As Pd has spread across North America, infection dynamics and mortality from WNS have varied among species and across sites. The mechanisms behind vulnerability of species across the current and expanding...Integrating colony counts with NABat acoustic data to reveal the true impacts of White-Nose Syndrome on northern long-eared bats
Bat Research Research collaboration: Brian Reichert (FORT), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Tina Cheng (Bat Conservation International) The northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) was listed as Threatened on the Endangered Species Act in 2014 due to rapid declines in numbers of observed hibernating bats at winter roosting sites after the arrival...A continental-scale study of acoustic phenology to improve population monitoring and inform management of hibernating bats
Bat Research Research collaboration: Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Theodore Weller (U.S. Forest Service), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Craig Willis (University of Winnipeg), and Brian Reichert (FORT) White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has caused severe declines in bat populations over the past 10 years and colony sizes at winter hibernacula have decreased on average by >90% for three...Modeling the response of cave hibernating Myotis species to white-nose syndrome mitigation tactics
Bat Research Research collaboration: Robin Russell (NWHC), Tonie Rocke (NWHC), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), Evan Grant (PWRC) White-nose syndrome is a fungal disease devastating cave-hibernating bat species (Myotis spp.) in the eastern United States. Several mitigation tactics have been proposed to alleviate the effects of white-nose syndrome on bats including probiotics and vaccination. Questions...Developing online integrated data visualization tools for WNS and NABat
Bat Research Research collaboration: Brian Reichert (FORT), Anne Ballmann (NWHC), Jeremy Coleman (USFWS), Paul Cryan (FORT), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC), and Katherine Irvine (NOROCK) White-nose syndrome is caused by the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), which has decimated hibernating bat populations across North America since it emerged 10 years ago in New York. While diagnostic...Quantifying vulnerability of bat species to White-nose Syndrome across North America
Bat Research Research collaboration: Winifred Frick (Bat Conservation International), Brian Reichert (FORT), Theodore Weller (US Forest Service), Wayne Thogmartin (UMESC) and the North American Bat Colony Count Consortium We quantify vulnerability of bat species in North America to target and prioritize management actions toward species and habitats that are most at risk from impacts from White...Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse”
Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation co... - Data
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North American duck populations and the Central U.S. hunters who hunt them
This data file is in long format, comprising time series of hunter abundance and behavior and duck abundance. Hunter information varies by administrative flyway (Mississippi and Central), whereas duck population abundance is summarized for both the Prairie Pothole Region and the continent. Duck information for the Prairie Pothole Region is for the U.S. portion only (Strata 41-49 of the May waterfoNorth American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Winter Abundance: Predicted Population Estimates (2022 and 2023)
The dataset is comprised of historical observations and predictions of winter colony counts at known sites for three bat species (little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus; tricolored bat, Perimyotis subflavus; and big brown bat, Eptesicus fuscus). The dataset consists of two separate but related data files in tabular format (comma-separated values [.csv]). Each data set consists of predicted winter counWhite-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans spatio-temporal predictions over North America between 2007 and 2030
This csv contains spatio-temporal predictions for the year of white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans in support of the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." Gaussian process models were fitted to monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America from 2007-2022. These models are used to make pR code to fit Gaussian process models to white-nose syndrome/Pseudogymnoascus destructans monitoring data across North America from 2006-2022
This code supports the manuscript "Gaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030." The code is used to fit Gaussian process models to publicly accessible monitoring data on the spread of white-nose syndrome in North America. These models are used to make predictions on a fine spatial grid, giving a forecast (and hindcast) of the spread of whitBlue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021
These data are comprised of geo-located breeding season occurrences of Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in North America, 1963-2021. These data were collated from eBird (Cornell Lab of Ornithology) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (US Geological Survey).Bat demographic look up tables for BatTool R package
Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.Simulated impacts of feather oiling on avian energetics and migration: R environment model code and raw output
This dataset represents a modeling effort intended to explore the impacts of oiling on migratory birds. The purpose of this model is to provide a first principles approach to predict potential biological impacts of altered energetics dynamics in north American migratory birds due to oiling of feathers. This data includes predicted theoretical impacts on migration timing, wintering latitude, starvaDemographic and potential biological removal models identify raptor species sensitive to current and future wind energy
A central challenge in applied ecology is understanding the effect of anthropogenic fatalities on wildlife populations and predicting which populations may be particularly vulnerable and in greatest need of management attention. We used 3 approaches to investigate potential effects of fatalities from collisions with wind turbines on 14 raptor species for both current (106 GW) and anticipated futurStatus and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019 Data Release
This data release contains the results from the North American Bat Monitoring Program's report titled 'Status and Trends of North American Bats Summer Occupancy Analysis 2010-2019'. Specifically, these data include tabular data and geospatial data for the species-specific results related to the status and trends of 12 bat species at multiple spatial scales including: 10 km x 10 km grid cells, statMulti-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surMulti-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surR code: Landscape- and local-level variables associated with monarch breeding occurrence and abundance at patches in Wisconsin grasslands
This code file accompanies a manuscript describing associations of monarch breeding occurrence and abundance with landscape and local characteristics at locations in northern and southern Wisconsin. Context for the study can be obtained from the manuscript (Bruce (nee Harnsberger), A.S., Thogmartin, W.E., Trosen, C., Oberhauser, K., and Gratton, C., In-Press, Landscape- and local- level variables - Publications
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Potential economic consequences along migratory flyways from reductions in breeding habitat of migratory waterbirds
The migration of species, often across continents, makes it difficult to quantify the cumulative effects of local- and regional-scale conservation actions. Further, variation in stakeholder interests, differing jurisdictional governance processes, priorities, and monitoring abilities across the migratory range shapes place-specific differences in management actions. These differences may lead manaAuthorsWayne E. Thogmartin, James H. Devries, Darius J. Semmens, James E. Diffendorfer, James A. Dubovksy, Jonathan J. Derbridge, Brady J. MattssonSurvival of Common Loon chicks appears unaffected by Bald Eagle recovery in northern Minnesota
Recovering species are not returning to the same environments or communities from which they disappeared. Conservation researchers and practitioners are thus faced with additional challenges in ensuring species resilience in these rapidly changing ecosystems. Assessing the resilience of species in these novel systems can still be guided by species’ ecology, including knowledge of their populationAuthorsJennyffer Cruz, Steve K. Windels, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Shawn M. Crimmins, Benjamin ZuckerbergThe benefits of big-team science for conservation: Lessons learned from trinational monarch butterfly collaborations
Many pressing conservation issues are complex problems caused by multiple social and environmental drivers; their resolution is aided by interdisciplinary teams of scientists, decision makers, and stakeholders working together. In these situations, how do we generate science to effectively guide conservation (resource management and policy) decisions? This paper describes elements of successful biAuthorsJames E. Diffendorfer, Ryan G. Drum, Greg W. Mitchell, Eduardo Rendón-Salinas, Victor Sánchez-Cordero, Darius J. Semmens, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Ignacio J. MarchChange in climatically suitable breeding distributions reduces hybridization potential between Vermivora warblers
AimClimate change is affecting the distribution of species and subsequent biotic interactions, including hybridization potential. The imperiled Golden-winged Warbler (GWWA) competes and hybridizes with the Blue-winged Warbler (BWWA), which may threaten the persistence of GWWA due to introgression. We examined how climate change is likely to alter the breeding distributions and potential for hybridAuthorsJessica N. Hightower, Dolly L. Crawford, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Kyle R. Aldinger, Sara Barker Swarthout, David A. Buehler, John Confer, Christian Friis, Jeff Larkin, James D. Lowe, Martin Piorkowski, Ronald W. Rohrbaugh, Kenneth V. Rosenberg, Curtis G. Smalling, Petra B. Wood, Rachel Vallender, Amber M. RothGaussian process forecasts Pseudogymnoascus destructans will cover coterminous United States by 2030
White-nose syndrome has been decimating populations of several bat species since its first occurrence in the Northeastern United States in the winter 2006–2007. The spread of the disease has been monitored across the continent through the collaboration of many organizations. Inferring the rate of spread of the disease and predicting its arrival at new locations is critical when assessing the curreAuthorsAshton M. Wiens, Wayne E. ThogmartinMigration and energetics model predicts delayed migration and likely starvation in oiled waterbirds
Oil spills can inflict mortality and injury on bird populations; many of these deaths involve starvation resulting from thermoregulatory costs incurred by oiling of birds’ feathers. However, the fates and responses of sublethally oiled birds are poorly known. Due to this knowledge gap and the potential for birds to die far from the spill site, resource risk and injury assessors need tools to makeAuthorsBenjamin M West, Mark L. Wildhaber, Kevin J. Aagaard, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Adrian Parr Moore, Michael J. HooperUsing ecosystem services to identify inequitable outcomes in migratory species conservation
Biodiversity conservation efforts have been criticized for generating inequitable socio-economic outcomes. These equity challenges are largely analyzed as place-based problems affecting local communities directly impacted by conservation programs. The conservation of migratory species extends this problem geographically since people in one place may benefit while those in another bear the costs ofAuthorsCharles C. Chester, Aaron M. Lien, Juanita Sundberg, James E. Diffendorfer, Columba Gonzales, Brady J. Mattsson, Rodrigo Medellin, Darius J. Semmens, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Jonathan J. Derbridge, Laura López-HoffmanEarly treatment of white-nose syndrome is necessary to stop population decline
Since its introduction to North America, white-nose syndrome has been associated with declines greater than 90% in several bat species, prompting the development of treatments to reduce disease-related mortality. As treatment application is scaled up, predicting responses at the population level will help in the development of management plans.We develop a model allowing for the implementation ofAuthorsJohn Forrest Grider, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Riley F. Bernard, Robin E. RussellStatus and trends of North American bats: Summer occupancy analysis 2010-2019
• We developed an analytical pipeline supported by web-based infrastructure for integrating continental scale bat monitoring data (stationary acoustic, mobile acoustic, and capture records) to estimate summer (May 1–Aug 31) occupancy probabilities and changes in occupancy over time for 12 North American bat species. This serves as one of multiple lines of evidence that inform the status and trends
AuthorsBradley James Udell, Bethany Straw, Tina L. Cheng, Kyle Enns, Winifred F. Frick, Benjamin Gotthold, Kathryn Irvine, Cori Lausen, Susan Loeb, Jonathan D. Reichard, Thomas J. Rodhouse, Dane Smith, Christian Stratton, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Brian ReichertMulti-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation that could help ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migration may be informed by understanding the economic values people in different countries place on the benefits they derive from migratory wildlife.We conducted conAuthorsWayne E. Thogmartin, Michelle A. Haefele, James E. Diffendorfer, Darius J. Semmens, Jonathan J. Derbridge, Aaron M. Lien, Ta-Ken Huang, Laura López-HoffmanEffects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model
We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating aAuthorsKevin Aagaard, Eric V. Lonsdorf, Wayne E. ThogmartinLandscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs in Midwest grasslands
ContextIt is estimated that over one billion milkweed stems need to be restored to sustain the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies; where and in what context the stems should be placed on the landscape is key to addressing habitat deficits.ObjectivesWe assessed how the amount of appropriate habitat surrounding a particular patch of monarch habitat affects monarch preAuthorsAnna Skye Bruce, Wayne E. Thogmartin, Chris Trosen, Karen Oberhauser, Claudio Gratton - Software
BatTool R package
This R package was developed to help the USFWS understand the effects of wind turbine mortality and WNS on the Indiana bat. The model has been described in a peer-reviewd (and open access publication). The package includes both a GUI and command line interface. The GUI only works for Myotis spp., although the command line tool has been expanded for two other genera of bats: Lasiurus spp. and PipisApplying Simulated Treatments to Bat Populations Experiencing Severe White-nose Syndrome Mortality
We developed a model allowing for the application of treatment strategies to bat populations at risk of severe mortality from WNS. The model allows the bat population to exist within a network of hibernacula and updates survival, reproduction, movement, treatment applications, and treatment related disturbance annually. For simplicity, the effects of WNS are experienced across all hibernacula on tGRTS for Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program Code
These scripts prepare input files and run a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) draw to select sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. - News