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Rapid sensitivity analysis for reducing uncertainty in landslide hazard assessments Rapid sensitivity analysis for reducing uncertainty in landslide hazard assessments

One of the challenges in assessing temporal and spatial aspects of landslide hazard using process-based models is estimating model input parameters, especially in areas where limited measurements of soil and rock properties are available. In an effort to simplify and streamline parameter estimation, development of a simple, rapid approach to sensitivity analysis relies on field...
Authors
Rex L. Baum

On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard

Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas...
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, Eric L. Geist

Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters

Landslides have the incredible power to transform landscapes and also, tragically, to cause disastrous societal impacts. Whereas the mechanics and effects of many landslide disasters have been analyzed in detail, the means by which landslide experts respond to these events has garnered much less attention. Herein, we evaluate nine landslide response case histories conducted by the U.S...
Authors
Brian D. Collins, Mark E. Reid, Jeffrey A. Coe, Jason W. Kean, Rex L. Baum, Randall W. Jibson, Jonathan W. Godt, Stephen Slaughter, Greg M. Stock

Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models

I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic sequences are...
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck

A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism A long-term geothermal observatory across subseafloor gas hydrates, IODP Hole U1364A, Cascadia accretionary prism

We report 4 years of temperature profiles collected from May 2014 to May 2018 in Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Hole U1364A in the frontal accretionary prism of the Cascadia subduction zone. The temperature data extend to depths of nearly 300 m below seafloor (mbsf), spanning the gas hydrate stability zone at the location and a clear bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) at ∼230 mbsf...
Authors
K. Elizabeth Becker, E. E. Davis, M. Hessemann, J. A. Collins, Jeffrey J. McGuire

In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica In‐situ mass balance estimates offshore Costa Rica

The Costa Rican convergent margin has been considered a type erosive margin, with erosional models suggesting average losses up to −153 km3/km/m.y. However, three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program data collected offshore the Osa Peninsula images accretionary structures and vertical motions that conflict with the forearc basal erosion model. Here we...
Authors
Joel Edwards, Jared W. Kluesner, Eli Silver, Rachel Lauer, Nathan Bangs, Brian Boston

The normal faulting 2020 Mw5.8 Lone Pine, Eastern California earthquake sequence The normal faulting 2020 Mw5.8 Lone Pine, Eastern California earthquake sequence

The 2020 Mw 5.8 Lone Pine earthquake, the largest earthquake on the Owens Valley fault zone, eastern California, since the nineteenth century, ruptured an extensional stepover in that fault. Owens Valley separates two normal‐faulting regimes, the western margin of the Great basin and the eastern margin of the Sierra Nevada, forming a complex seismotectonic zone, and a possible nascent...
Authors
Egill Hauksson, Brian J. Olsen, Alex R. Grant, Jennifer R Andrews, Angela I. Chung, Susan E. Hough, Hiroo Kanamori, Sara K. McBride, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Zachary E. Ross, Deborah Smith, Sotiris Valkaniotis

Numerical simulations of the geospace response to the arrival of an idealized perfect interplanetary coronal mass ejection Numerical simulations of the geospace response to the arrival of an idealized perfect interplanetary coronal mass ejection

Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic-ring current-ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate...
Authors
Daniel T. Welling, Jeffrey J. Love, E. Joshua Rigler, Denny M. Oliveira, Colin M. Komar, Steven Morley

Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century

Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the...
Authors
J. Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, Trang Minh Duong, T.A.J.G. Sirisena

Revisiting California’s past great earthquakes and long-term earthquake rate Revisiting California’s past great earthquakes and long-term earthquake rate

In this study, we revisit the three largest historical earthquakes in California—the 1857 Fort Tejon, 1872 Owens Valley, and 1906 San Francisco earthquakes—to review their published moment magnitudes, and compare their estimated shaking distributions with predictions using modern ground‐motion models (GMMs) and ground‐motion intensity conversion equations. Currently accepted moment...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page, Leah Salditch, Molly M. Gallahue, Madeleine C. Lucas, James S. Neely, Seth Stein

Site response, basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops in the Portland, Oregon area Site response, basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops in the Portland, Oregon area

Site response, sedimentary basin amplification, and earthquake stress drops for the Portland, Oregon area were determined using accelerometer recordings at 16 sites of 10 local earthquakes with MDMD 2.6–4.0. A nonlinear inversion was applied to calculate site response (0.5–10 Hz), corner frequencies, and seismic moments from the Fourier spectra of the earthquakes. Site amplifications at...
Authors
Arthur D. Frankel, Alex R. Grant

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Additional period and site class data

As part of the update of the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States (CONUS), new ground motion and site effect models for the central and eastern United States were incorporated, as well as basin depths from local seismic velocity models in four western US (WUS) urban areas. These additions allow us, for the first time, to calculate probabilistic...
Authors
Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Sanaz Rezaeian, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Brandon Clayton
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