Publications
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A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks A new technique to calculate earthquake stress transfer and to forecast aftershocks
Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models, such as the existence of hypothetical...
Authors
Margarita Segou, Thomas E. Parsons
Semiautomated estimates of directivity and related source properties of small to moderate southern California earthquakes using second seismic moments Semiautomated estimates of directivity and related source properties of small to moderate southern California earthquakes using second seismic moments
We develop a semiautomated method for estimating with second seismic moments the directivity, rupture area, duration, and centroid velocity of earthquakes. The method is applied to 41 southern California earthquakes with magnitude in the range 3.5–5.2 and provides stable results for 28 events. Apparent source time functions (ASTFs) of P and S phases are derived using deconvolution with...
Authors
Haoran Meng, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Basin amplification effects in the Puget Lowland, Washington from strong motion recordings and 3D simulations Basin amplification effects in the Puget Lowland, Washington from strong motion recordings and 3D simulations
Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground‐motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong‐motion recordings of five local earthquakes ( M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentary basin effects within the Seattle and...
Authors
Mika Thompson, Erin A. Wirth, Arthur D. Frankel, J. Renate Hartog, John E. Vidale
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here...
Authors
Jennifer Montaño, Giovanni Coco, Jose Antolinez, Tomas Beuzen, Karin Bryan, Laura Cagigal, Bruno Castelle, Mark Davidson, Evan B. Goldstein, Raimundo Ibaceta, Déborah Idier, Bonnie C. Ludka, Sina Masoud-Ansari, Fernando Mendez, A. Brad Murray, Nathaniel G. Plant, Katherine Ratlif, Arthur Robinet, Ana Rueda, Nadia Sénéchal, Joshua Simmons, Kristen Splinter, Scott Stephens, Ian Townend, Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos
Plastic faulting in ice Plastic faulting in ice
Plastic faulting is a brittle‐like failure phenomenon exhibited by water ice and several other rock types under confinement. It is suspected to be the mechanism of deep earthquakes and extreme cases of shear localization in shallow rocks. Unlike ordinary Coulombic failure, plastic faulting is characterized by a pressure‐independent failure strength and fault plane oriented 45° to maximum...
Authors
Narayama Golding, William B Durham, David J Prior, Laura A. Stern
Earthquake magnitude and Lg Q variations between the Grenville and northern Appalachian geologic provinces of eastern Canada Earthquake magnitude and Lg Q variations between the Grenville and northern Appalachian geologic provinces of eastern Canada
This article assesses the ability of regionally specific, frequency‐dependent crustal attenuation (1/Q) to reduce mean magnitude discrepancies between seismic stations in the northern Appalachian and Grenville provinces (NAP and GP) of Canada. LgQ(f) is an important parameter in ground‐motion models used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Discrepancies in regional magnitude...
Authors
H.K. Claire Perry, Allison L. Bent, Daniel E. McNamara, Stephen Crane, Michal Kolaj
Final report to SCEC on the January 8, 2020 SCEC workshop 'Dynamic Rupture TAG Ingredients Workshop – Fault Friction (SCEC Project 19121)' Final report to SCEC on the January 8, 2020 SCEC workshop 'Dynamic Rupture TAG Ingredients Workshop – Fault Friction (SCEC Project 19121)'
This workshop was the second of a series of four SCEC5 workshops designed to evaluate the importance of each of the four ingredients required for dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. The four ingredients are: initial stress conditions, fault geometry, rock properties, and fault friction (Figure 1). This workshop included a range of views of how fault friction operates in the Earth...
Authors
Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall
An aeolian grainflow model for Martian Recurring Slope Lineae An aeolian grainflow model for Martian Recurring Slope Lineae
Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) on Mars have been enigmatic since their discovery; their behavior resembles a seeping liquid but sources of water remain puzzling. This work demonstrates that the properties of RSL are consistent with observed behaviors of Martian and terrestrial aeolian processes. Specifically, RSL are well-explained as flows of sand that remove a thin coating of dust...
Authors
Colin M. Dundas
Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand Hybrid broadband ground motion simulation validation of small magnitude earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand
Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three
Authors
Robin L. Lee, Brendon A. Bradley, Peter J. Stafford, Robert Graves, Adrian Rodriguez-Marek
Development of a global seismic risk model Development of a global seismic risk model
Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential...
Authors
Vitor Silva, Desmond Amo-Oduro, Alejandro Calderon, Catarina Costa, Jamal Dabbeek, Venetia Despotaki, Luis Martins, Marco Pagani, Anirudh Rao, Michele Simionato, Daniele Vigano, Catalina Yepes-Estrada, Ana Beatriz Acevedo, Helen Crowley, Nick Horspool, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Murray Journeay, Massimiliano Pittore
The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) The community code verification exercise for simulating sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS)
Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables...
Authors
Brittany Erickson, Junle Jiang, Michael Barall, Nadia Lapusta, Eric Dunham, Ruth A. Harris, Lauren Abrahams, Kali Allison, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Sylvain Barbot, Camilla Cattania, Ahmed Elbanna, Yuri Fialko, Benjamin Idini, Jeremy Kozdon, Valere Lambert, Yajing Liu, Yingdi Luo, Xiao Ma, Maricela Best McKay, Paul Segall, Pengsheng Shi, Martijn van den Ende, Mengjie Wei
Potential duration of aftershocks of the 2020 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake Potential duration of aftershocks of the 2020 southwestern Puerto Rico earthquake
Abstract Aftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these...
Authors
Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael