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North Central

The North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (NC CASC) fosters applied research in support of Tribal, federal, state, and local natural resource management across the north central U.S. Their research focuses on habitat loss, wildfires, water availability, invasive species, wildlife phenology, and disease in sagebrush, freshwater, grassland, and high elevation ecosystems.

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Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities

Natural resource managers planning for increased incidence of droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts in the North Central region are in charge of management strategies that can impact the well-being of rural communities in the region. Gaining a better understanding of how resource management decisions may impact rural communities can allow for better consideration of the costs and bene
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Understanding the Intersection of Climate Vulnerability and Resource Management in Rural Communities

Natural resource managers planning for increased incidence of droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts in the North Central region are in charge of management strategies that can impact the well-being of rural communities in the region. Gaining a better understanding of how resource management decisions may impact rural communities can allow for better consideration of the costs and bene
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Impact of Climate Driven Changes to Water Levels on Recreational Fisheries in the Northern Glaciated Plains

The Northern Glaciated Plains in the upper Midwest United States is a region where fishing generates millions of dollars a year for local and state economies. Maintaining these revenues requires the management of fish populations that are popular and accessible (e.g. boat ramps, public land access) to anglers. Fisheries throughout the world are currently undergoing unprecedented changes to water l
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Impact of Climate Driven Changes to Water Levels on Recreational Fisheries in the Northern Glaciated Plains

The Northern Glaciated Plains in the upper Midwest United States is a region where fishing generates millions of dollars a year for local and state economies. Maintaining these revenues requires the management of fish populations that are popular and accessible (e.g. boat ramps, public land access) to anglers. Fisheries throughout the world are currently undergoing unprecedented changes to water l
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Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools

A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North
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Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools

A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North
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Co-Creating an Integrated Climate Impact Assessment of First Foods and Medicine in the Little Rocky Mountains for the Aaniiihnen Nakoda Nations

As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of
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Co-Creating an Integrated Climate Impact Assessment of First Foods and Medicine in the Little Rocky Mountains for the Aaniiihnen Nakoda Nations

As climate change looms large, the Aaniiihnen and Nakoda people of the Fort Belknap Indian Community are undertaking a climate change impact assessment in the Little Rocky Mountains to better prepare for the future. This mountain range is home to numerous food and medicinal species of cultural importance. It is critical to understand how climate change has affected and will affect availability of
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Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, changing precipitation intensity and seasonality, and increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States. These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining from the mountains. The Tongue River flows from the Bighorn mountains in nor
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Future Streamflow Estimates for Tongue River to Enable Northern Cheyenne Data Driven Water Management and Planning

Atmospheric warming is driving a shift in precipitation from snow to rain, changing precipitation intensity and seasonality, and increasing atmospheric demand for moisture in mountain river watersheds across the western United States. These changes will likely alter the timing and quantity of streamflow in rivers draining from the mountains. The Tongue River flows from the Bighorn mountains in nor
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Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems

Natural & cultural resource managers are facing a slew of new challenges for managing public lands stemming from climate change and human-driven stressors like invasive species, fragmentation, and new resource uses. In some cases, the very landscapes and species they are managing are changing in significant ways, transforming from one set of conditions to another. As a result, previously successfu
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Cross-Park RAD Project (CPRP): A Case Study in Four National Parks Investigating How Institutional Context and Emotions Shape Manager Decisions to Resist, Accept, or Direct Change in Transforming Ecosystems

Natural & cultural resource managers are facing a slew of new challenges for managing public lands stemming from climate change and human-driven stressors like invasive species, fragmentation, and new resource uses. In some cases, the very landscapes and species they are managing are changing in significant ways, transforming from one set of conditions to another. As a result, previously successfu
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The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes

Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This p
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The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes

Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This p
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Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau

Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decade
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Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau

Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decade
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Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia

Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be gen
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Development of a Surface Water Index of Permanence (SWIPe) Database to Assess Surface Water Availability for Ecohydrological Refugia

Surface-water availability has been identified as one of the biggest issues facing society in the 21st century. Where and when water is on the landscape can have profound impacts on the economy, wildlife behavior, recreational use, industrial practices, energy development, and many other aspects of life, society, and the environment. Projections indicate that surface-water availability will be gen
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Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan

The long-term success of management efforts in sagebrush habitats are increasingly complicated by the impacts of a changing climate throughout the western United States. These complications are most evident in the ongoing challenges of drought and altered rangeland fire regimes resulting from the establishment of nonnative annual grasses. The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy recognize
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Providing a Climate Science Foundation for Updating the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy Actionable Science Plan

The long-term success of management efforts in sagebrush habitats are increasingly complicated by the impacts of a changing climate throughout the western United States. These complications are most evident in the ongoing challenges of drought and altered rangeland fire regimes resulting from the establishment of nonnative annual grasses. The Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy recognize
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State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions

Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has oc
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State of the Science in Streamflow Modeling in the North Central Region to Address Partner Needs for Water Availability Under Drought Conditions

Land and water managers often rely on hydrological models to make informed management decisions. Understanding water availability in streams, rivers, and reservoirs during high demand periods that coincide with seasonal low flows can affect how water managers plan for its distribution for human consumption while sustaining aquatic ecosystems. Substantial advancement in hydrological modeling has oc
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Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring

One of the most visible signs of climate change is less mountain snow. In the Western U.S., deep snow has historically been a cornerstone of life for many plants and animals. For example, snow can provide denning shelter for certain species like the wolverine, and snowmelt provides dependable water to mountain streams that are home to fish like the bull trout. Yet snow losses driven by warming tem
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Estimating Future High-Mountain Snowpack to Inform Terrestrial and Aquatic Species Status Assessments, Recovery Plans, and Monitoring

One of the most visible signs of climate change is less mountain snow. In the Western U.S., deep snow has historically been a cornerstone of life for many plants and animals. For example, snow can provide denning shelter for certain species like the wolverine, and snowmelt provides dependable water to mountain streams that are home to fish like the bull trout. Yet snow losses driven by warming tem
Learn More